Do We Ever Stop Growing Up? The End of History Illusion

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Quoidbach et al. elicited estimates of people's personality, values, and choices and compared how much, for instance, 33-year-olds believed that they would change in the next 10 years with how much 43-year-olds reported that they had changed in the past 10 years. For groups spanning 18 to 68 years of age, people of all ages described more change in the past 10 years than they would have predicted 10 years ago.

Posted by Dbt2 at 10:33 AM | 25 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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Abstract "We measured the personalities, values, and preferences of more than 19,000 people who ranged in age from 18 to 68 and asked them to report how much they had changed in the past decade and/or to predict how much they would change in the next decade. Young people, middle-aged people, and older people all believed they had changed a lot in the past but would change relatively little in the future. People, it seems, regard the present as a watershed moment at which they have finally become the person they will be for the rest of their lives. This "end of history illusion" had practical consequences, leading people to overpay for future opportunities to indulge their current preferences."

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Yes, the full article is subscription-only. So sue me. It's recent original research.

So if you think science and academia and research and psychology and such stuff is useless . . . well, hammer away.

Basic point here: People change a lot over the last 10 years and don't think they'll change in the next 10.

Retort's been around 20+ years. I see the same folks grouching over the same arguments with the same sources over and over and over again: i.e., God or no God. For Zarathustra's sake, that argument hasn't changed here in 20 years, and won't for another 20. Or 200.

#1 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-07-23 10:37 AM | Reply

Crabs in a bucket.

#2 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 11:09 AM | Reply

But people have definitely changed.

Take JeffJ. Now an empty shell, devoid of his own personality.

Or Boaz. His skin got even thinner over time, to the point he had to leave.

There may also be people who changed for the better. Nullifidian wasn't one of them.

Look how many formerly seemingly sane people joined the Trump MAGA Cult.

#3 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-07-23 11:15 AM | Reply

Time does not change you- people and places and situations change you.

#4 | Posted by NerfHerder at 2026-07-23 11:21 AM | Reply

5. An author I worked with:

"You'll be the same person five years from now, except for the people you meet and the books you read."

The latter closes out lots of people.

#5 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-07-23 11:35 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

There may also be people who changed for the better. Nullifidian wasn't one of them.

He went from being alive to being dead.

Who's to say that is not better?

We are alive for only a brief instant in Time.

We are dead infinitely.

The Infinite may be a better place for some.

Many are just like the crabs in a bucket. Always climbing up other crabs backs and pulling them back into the bucket in order to try and get out of the bucket.

And they don't even know that what's waiting for them on the outside of the bucket is Infinity.. for them in the form of boiling water.

For us? Ashes to ashes ... Dust to dust.

#6 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 11:36 AM | Reply

Painting a dot on the wall, drawing a circle around it, and claiming they hit the target?

#7 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-07-23 11:36 AM | Reply

6. Oh. I thought it was like fish in a barrel. Forgetting my metaphors.

#8 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-07-23 11:37 AM | Reply

This is an interesting topic DB.

But I think people do change. They are changed by their environment and experiences. Obviously.

But what you may be referring to is the "awareness".

Your life force/spirit/essence you come into the world with. It is always there buried under the flotsam and jetsom of daily life.

Some can stay in touch with it. Some lose contact with it and basically become out of touch with themselves and their ancestors.

In a word. Insane.

#9 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 11:53 AM | Reply

www.psychologytoday.com

#10 | Posted by Corky at 2026-07-23 11:55 AM | Reply

I don't think you can really change your "awareness" or who you are when you come into this world. It's in your DNA.

But you can change how your awareness responds to the world.

#11 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 12:03 PM | Reply

In the clearing stands a boxer
And a fighter by his trade
And he carries the reminders
Of every glove that laid him down
Or cut him till he cried out
In his anger and his shame
"I am leaving, I am leaving"
But the fighter still remains

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2026-07-23 12:07 PM | Reply

Personalities may adjust over a lifetime, but character doesn't. For just one example, my friend's pal was a happy-go-lucky fellow. After he married, he "changed," and it was noticeable. I don't discuss people when they are not in the same room as me, so I bided my time in silent curiosity. One evening I asked about so-and-so as we hadn't seen him in a while. My friend said that "XX" became frightfully unhappy with marital life. His "goober" wife -- who didn't have a sense of humor -- soured his once cheerful outlook on life. The harridan would shush him at parties and warned him not to laugh so loud at social gatherings. Nevertheless, "XX" was still the same hardworking guy at work who made all his promotions on time and helped little old ladies cross the street -- just without the smile.

My friend's cat "changed" over the years. "Ajax" became more grouchy with age as he couldn't clean himself the way he used to because of physical ailments and obesity. "Nothing pleases him anymore!" was a constant refrain in that home. Nevertheless, Ajax didn't scratch or bite anyone or become a destructive nuisance -- the poor cat just purred less. His character didn't change -- just his personality.

Some people's lives are chapters in a book or phases along a journey -- evolution, maturation, and self-awareness is expected.

The saddest people to come across the universe are the ones who hadn't evolved or changed for the better over the decades.

"Oh, I see that after 20 years you're still an immature nitwit in an ill-fitting suit that remains the slowest hand to ever reach for the bill at the end of dinner."

Sigh.

PS: Crabs in a bucket? I remember Colonel Sanders and "chickens in a bucket."

#13 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-07-23 12:27 PM | Reply

Crabs in a bucket?

Crab Mentality.
en.wikipedia.org

#14 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-07-23 12:43 PM | Reply

My dog Joey definitely has a personality. He has these eyes that capture you..

I doubt it will ever change. At least I hope not.

But I can already see how he changes how he responds to the world.

He did not used to care about bugs and flies. Apparently a bug bit him one day.

Now he hates them all and responds by either snapping at them and eating them or running away to the safety of my bed. He actually seems a little neurotic about it sometimes.

#15 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 12:45 PM | Reply

Re 14

Yes. It's a "thing".

I did not make it up.

#16 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 12:46 PM | Reply

'Twas a wee bit of wry humor tossed into the salad, Boyo.

;-)

#17 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-07-23 12:49 PM | Reply

I'm not sure if the crab thing is true, though.

Like the frog in the slowly building pot of water. Eventually, the frog actually hops out. It doesn't not notice that it's slowly cooking.

#18 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-07-23 12:50 PM | Reply

I'm not sure if the crab thing is true, though.

It's a metaphor. It's true enough. Have you ever watched crabs in a bucket?

I think it depends on the human "crabs" you are stuck in your human bucket with.

Some crabs will crawl up your back to save themselves.

Some will let you crawl up their backs and so YOU can save yourself ... some will try and help others.

But many times no one will escape the bucket they find themselves in because they are all the same type of crab. Selfish stupid and thoughtless and "climbing" (competing ?) is all they know and all they want to know.

#19 | Posted by donnerboy at 2026-07-23 01:03 PM | Reply

Poor Joey. A case of PTSD late in life for him over a darned bug.

Decades ago I would recommend books and films to my junior officers (LTs, CPTs, and O-4s).

One of the films I would ask them to watch if they hadn't seen it was An Officer and a Gentlman.

The black USMC DI instills "character" into white trash misogynist Zack Mayo.

#20 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-07-23 01:08 PM | Reply

"It's a metaphor. It's true enough."

That's what I don't like about it. Bad Apples is a metaphor too. It used to mean, one bad apple spoils the whole barrel.

Now it means the opposite of that. It means bad cops are outliers to be ignored, and absolutely not a sign of a systemic problem.

It's like the term "Indian Giver" which of course only accurately describes our behavior, that of breaking countless promises we made to the Indians.

#21 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-07-23 01:12 PM | Reply

"I think it depends on the human "crabs" you are stuck in your human bucket with."

Yes. That was the best part of spending time in an academic setting. People genuinely want to help you. It's usually not like that in a business setting.

#22 | Posted by snoofy at 2026-07-23 01:14 PM | Reply

Like the frog in the slowly building pot of water. Eventually, the frog actually hops out. It doesn't not notice that it's slowly cooking.

#18 | Posted by snoofy

Link?

#23 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-07-23 01:39 PM | Reply

Not doubting, just curious.

#24 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-07-23 01:39 PM | Reply

I can say one thing for sure, who I am now, who I was 10 years ago, who I was 20 years ago, and who I was 30 years ago are all different.

Every day is a new day to learn and grow.

#25 | Posted by ClownShack at 2026-07-23 01:44 PM | Reply