Rasmussen Has Harris Beating Trump by 5 Points

Saturday, August 03, 2024

Pollster Scott Rasmussen tweeted on Friday that Vice President Kamala Harris was leading former President Donald Trump in his latest national poll by five points.

Posted by reinheitsgebot at 11:33 PM | 31 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

Lol... even the rwingers at Rasmussen couldn't hide the numbers!

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-08-03 10:43 AM

I guess real Americans can smell what Diaper Don is dealing.

Yeah.

One poll.

From the cited poll article...

... Rasmussen's polling from his company RMG Research -- not to be confused with the far-right-leaning Rasmussen Reports -- was posted on Twitter/X without including complete polling data (margin of error, methodology, etc.) but was still notable for the jump by the new presumptive Democratic presidential candidate in under two weeks' time. ...

[emphasis mine]

imo, don't get yer hopes up

Murray Head - One Night In Bangkok (extended version) (1984)
www.youtube.com

Lyrics excerpt...

genius.com

...
One night in Bangkok makes the hard man humble
Not much between despair and ecstasy

One night in Bangkok and the tough guys tumble
Can't be too careful with your company

I can feel the devil walkin' next to me
...

Yeah.
One poll...
#4 | Posted by LampLighter

Except it's not just one poll. It's RMG and Civiqs that show Harris is up by 5. And Leger has a 7 point lead in a Leger poll. She also has a smaller, 2 point lead in polls from the Economist/YouGov, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Angus Reid, and Florida Atlantic University. Even Morning Consult shows her up by a point.

Yeah.
One poll...
#4 | Posted by LampLighter

And 538's poll of polls now show Harris with a 1.5 point lead over Trump. abcnews.go.com

@#7 ... And 538's poll of polls now show Harris with a 1.5 point lead over Trump. abcnews.go.com ...

Thanks for that link.

What 538 seems to neglect to mention is the Margin of Error.

I'll agree that the trend looks favorable to VP Harris.

But when it comes down to the Electoral College, there are still 111 Electoral votes within the margin of error.
www.realclearpolling.com

So, at this point I have questions...

1) will the enthusiasm and energy that VP Harris' campaign appears to be experiencing last until November (meaning Election Day)? Granted, there are only 90 or so days that she needs to keep the current bubbling.

2) OK, I forgot my #2. Too much multi--tasking this evening (also trying to configure a RADIUS server to validate WiFi WPA-Enterprise logins.

I do note a couple of things...

1) there seems to be more Blue of late on this web page...
www.realclearpolling.com

2) the data on this web page has not budged.
www.realclearpolling.com

Thanks for that link.
What 538 seems to neglect to mention is the Margin of Error.
#8 | Posted by LampLighter

Did you actually click the link I posted? The 1.5 point advantage that I stated is the from the raw numbers.
The headline from 538, "Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages" makes clear that it is a tie within the margin of error.

www.realclearpolling.com
#9 | Posted by LampLighter

I no longer view that site as a reliable source of data since 2017. Their data has been skewed considerably towards republicans candidates in a manner that is not consistent with real world results. Their less than reliable data was used to fuel the failed walkaway and redwave predictions.

@#10 ... Did you actually click the link I posted? ...

I did.

I clicked on it, and followed it to abcnews.go.com.

Once there, I read the entire article, and then backtracked to click on the "average of national polls" link in the first paragraph.

The basis of the resulting article seems to be ( projects.fivethirtyeight.com )

... projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...

That page seems to be, a mish-mash pf data that really does not show anything significant. It states that Harris is ahead by 1.5, but when I click on the "full methodology link" I am thrown back to an April 2024 poll of Biden vs Trump.

abcnews.go.com

... Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally ...

Wow, 538 has sunk to new lows since ESPN took it over. And it seems that ESPN even wants to dump it on someone else...
ESPN Exploring Sale of FiveThirtyEight (2018)
www.thebiglead.com

So, all that leads me to ask,...

Did you actually click on the link(s) you posted?

I have to agree with LAMP on this one. Not because I don't have faith in Kamala to pull this off. But rather because I know that Trump hasn't hit rock bottom yet on his list of dirty tricks. IOW, he's still fishing. We already know that there's no depth of depravity to which he won't sink.

His problem is that he's running out of time and America seems to be swinging out of his control. Trump has burned so many candles at both ends of the stick that losing now has become life threatening.

Because when he loses, there's going to be a lot of people after a piece of his hide. And not just in this country.

@#11 ... Their data has been skewed considerably towards republicans candidates in a manner that is not consistent with real world results. ...

And the evidence you have to support that assertion is....?

thx.

@#13 ... IOW, he's still fishing. ...

Yeah.

My view is that fmr Pres Trump and his campaign have still not yet figured out how to respond to Pres Biden stepping down.

The disastrous (I'm being kind) "Trump being Trump" appearance at the NABJ shows that.

I don't trust RCP; they include a lot of trash Reichwing polls intended to puff up Dotard's numbers. It brings the MAGAts to their site to feel better about their chances. I will still say that polling since 2018 has wildly leaned too far Reich. I think it's a three-part problem: #1 - the trash Reichwing polls, which I think are more intended to make the Reich believe that elections are crooked because how could that poll show Dotard up by three, yet he loses by three? It must be crooked! #2 - is the inability of pollsters to poll Gen-Z, a group notoriously unwilling to answer a call from any number they don't recognize and who prefer to communicate via text or app. So the pollsters overvalue the few members Gen-Z they actually reach, which is how we saw polling earlier this year showing that somehow Dotard was getting a low 20% of young black male voters when the actual number is far closer to zero. It appeared they got ahold of one young black male voter and used him to speak for all young black male voters. #3 - The Dobbs effect, despite the Reich claiming that silly women will eventually forget all about having their civil rights stripped away by a bunch of old white male religious fanatics who believe they know what's better for women than the women themselves and their doctors. Women don't like the idea that their daughters have fewer rights than their mothers did. The pollsters fail to gauge the passion and the fury that women still feel about that ruling, not to mention that we know thanks to Thomas' concurrence that gay marriage and birth control are also on the table as far as those religious fanatics are concerned.

@#16 ... I don't trust RCP; they include a lot of trash Reichwing polls intended to puff up Dotard's numbers. ...

That's your choice. I will not argue that.

... is the inability of pollsters to poll Gen-Z, a group notoriously unwilling to answer a call from any number they don't recognize ...

Not just Gen-Z, but anyone who has had Caller-ID over the years. For instance, me.

Yesterday I got a call from GM Polling. I let it go to voice mail.

But yeah, and the pollsters realize that. They realized that two decades ago when I worked in the industry (not in a policy position, but in an IT position).

But to the gist of your comment...

Yeah, pollsters are in a bind lately.

They can only report what people tell them.

So, maybe another question to add to your text wall is along the lines of, why might people lie to pollsters?

Harris in reality is likely up 10-15%. Rasmussen is normally 5-10% slanted to the GOP.

@#16 ... they include a lot of trash Reichwing polls intended to puff up Dotard's numbers. ...

That also raises another question or two or three ...

I guess my first question might be, why do you seem to think that poll results you disagree with are inherently incorrect?

And then...

Would you be happier if all the polls agreed with your opinion? Is that the result you desire?

@#18 ... Rasmussen is normally 5-10% slanted to the GOP. ...

Yeah, that's one reason why I tend towards the RCP rolling average.

And, for the record, the RCP Electoral College display has not changed recently...

2024 RCP Electoral College Map
www.realclearpolling.com

That is a good graphic, imo.

Click on any state and see the polling results for that state. Then if you click on a poll in that state you are then given the raw data from that poll (usually PDF).

Good stuff.

"What 538 seems to neglect to mention is the Margin of Error."

When Trumpy's ahead by 5 points he always failed to mention that the margin of error was probably +- 5 pts.

Polls are very unreliable these days because of who responds to polls.

But they can show a general trend. And the huge swing shows Trumpy is more likely to be going to jail instead of the White House right now. Hence the general panic and desperation we are beginning to see in his campaign and around here.

But I would counsel caution. There are still 3 months to go and 3 months are a long time in American politics. And most Americans memories are much shorter than that. In my experience what happens in the last month before the election is crucial. Hence the term October Surprise.

We haven't seen the Dem convention or VP pick yet. She'll get a (maybe) temporary bounce.

And voters have still to be clearly educated that JD Vance is the least qualified VP candidate Trump could have picked. Ya, great job, Trump, in picking someone ready on "Day 1." (/s)

Ya, great job, Trump, in picking someone ready on "Day 1." (/s)

#22 | POSTED BY AMERICANUNITY

Yup. Not ready on day 1 but ready for Dictator Day!(aka The Purge).

Apparently you overlooked that most at Rasmussen really believe Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris only because she made him look intellectual. Both are absolute fools.

Karl Rove nailed it Sunday. The moment and excitement is just starting to show in the polls and unless she picks JD Vance for VP it is only going to get worse for sh*tler.

like half of the polls on Real Clear Politics are done by Fox,
Bloomberg, or Rasmussen. All three are very conservative pollsters.
And most of the contested states are within 1-4 pts. I think that
bodes pretty well for Harris.

" most of the contested states are within 1-4 pts. I think that bodes pretty well for Harris."

Even better: NONE of the polls are accounting for pissed off women, since there's no way to model it based on the prior electorate.

Hence red KS had polls which were way off, as did OH's abortion rights 60% threshold, and some statewide office in AL, where the woman running on women's rights won, despite the polls. And recently a Trump +29 district went for the (R), but only by 9 points.

Polls were waaay off, and the results all favored the "left" outcome by 5-10 points. Of, in the latter above, 20.

Women's rights on the ballot in AZ, FL, NV, MT, MO, NE, CO, and AR.

MT will help Tester. AZ and NV will benefit the bottom lines, NE will guarantee that one electoral vote from Omaha. FL may actually come into play, and Hawley will have a tougher race in MO.

Ultimately, Roevember will produce a Blue Tsunami. Sweetest of all will be starting out the night with the networks calling FL for Mucarsel, and NC for Stein.

-NONE of the polls are accounting for pissed off women,

they aren't polling pissed off women right now?

@#27 ... Even better: NONE of the polls are accounting for pissed off women, since there's no way to model it based on the prior electorate. ...

Along those lines...

www.cbsnews.com

...
The women's vote

Harris is leading among women voters -- an edge Democrats have had and needed in recent history -- with at least one big reason why: Women voters overwhelmingly think Harris would help women's interests if elected. Far fewer women say that about Trump. (70% to 43%, see the chart in the article...).

Voters overall tend to think Trump would help the interests of men more than they think he'd help those of women.

Related to this, the gender gap has widened some from earlier in the campaign. Harris leads Trump among women by a bigger margin than Mr. Biden had, while holding roughly the same support Mr. Biden had among men. ...

I also noticed this morning that the RCP rolling average tally of polls now has fmr Pres Trump leading by 0.7%, down from his 3.4% lead of less than a month ago. Not the best of trends for him.