538 Electoral College Prediction Today: Biden Wins

Monday, July 15, 2024

It's 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 526 out of 1,000 of our model's simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 471 of our simulations.

Posted by Corky at 04:33 PM | 23 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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"It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden's poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away.

This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5.

In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators.

Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win " clear in the opposite direction of national polls."

"Don't Panic!"

www.youtube.com

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-15 02:32 PM | Reply

2024 RCP Electoral College Map
www.realclearpolling.com

The map shows states in margin of error as toss-ups.

There's a link near the top to show the map with no toss-ups.

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-15 02:45 PM | Reply

538 said Hillary was going to win. You see what happened there. I don't trust polls.

#3 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2024-07-15 02:53 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

news.harvard.edu

It's more the media you shouldn't trust...

#4 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-15 02:57 PM | Reply

@#3 ... I don't trust polls. ...

It is not necessarily the polls, it is mostly the opinions and projections derived from the polling data.

For example, the RCP electoral site for 2016 showed that there were too many toss-up states, and that the election was too close to call.

That is one reason why I prefer the RCP poll charts and maps, they just present the polling data, no projections.

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-15 03:08 PM | Reply

538 said Hillary was going to win.

538 models probability, not who wins.

#6 | Posted by horstngraben at 2024-07-15 03:16 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#5 ... For example, the RCP electoral site for 2016 ...

Here's a link...
www.realclearpolitics.com

#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-15 03:32 PM | Reply

Since we're making predictions: I predict Trump will pull a born-again routine during the RNC, saying that his brush with death has changed him. This will speak to the 1 to 2% of voters who are indecisive suckers. And Trump will win an electoral landslide.

Trump will take office, institute Project 2025, eliminating opposition with the blessing of his SCOTUS. Thus will begin his 1,000 year Grift Reich tyranny.

-Fin-

#8 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-15 03:36 PM | Reply

Trump is leading today but he has to avoid acting like himself for almost four months. No other presidential candidate has ever been as effective at turning out people to vote against him.

#9 | Posted by rcade at 2024-07-15 04:10 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Maybe people are realizing that trump brings out the worst in republicans.

his shooter proves this.

#10 | Posted by Tor at 2024-07-15 05:01 PM | Reply

Only if 538 includes the margin of fraud, illegal alien votes and magic mail in ballot boxes.

#11 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-07-15 05:10 PM | Reply

Trump Is a Changed Man (or is he?)

www.youtube.com

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-15 05:14 PM | Reply

@#9 ... Trump is leading today but he has to avoid acting like himself for almost four months. ...

Yeah.

Without acting like himself, will he be able to animate his rally attendees to the point where they cheer their cult leader as he craves?

#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-15 05:30 PM | Reply

@#11 ... Only if 538 includes the margin of fraud, illegal alien votes and magic mail in ballot boxes. ...

How do you know it doesn't?

What evidence do you have of the things you mention occurring on a large-enough scale?

#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-15 05:31 PM | Reply

Evidence and Visitor are completely unaware of each other.

#15 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-15 07:00 PM | Reply

Been posting this all over the sites I visit where "poll addicts" have been going on and on about how accurate polling is. Their responses ... < crickets >

#16 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-07-15 10:22 PM | Reply

Election 2024 Trump Biden Spread
RCP Poll Average 47.1 44.4 Trump +2.7
5-Way RCP Average 42.9 38.8 Trump +4.1
Top Battlegrounds 46.5 42.4 Trump +4.1
Favorability Ratings -12.6 -16.4 Trump +3.8
RCP Betting Odds 66.8 17.7
Electoral College Trump Biden Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Map 219 198 121

Five Thirty Eight
Trump +1
Trump +1
Trump +4
Trump +2

#17 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-07-16 10:41 AM | Reply

And what are the current polls based on? The turnout and proclivities of the prior presidential election.

Where are pissed-off women in that metric?

In related news, why have Dems done so much better than polling?

#18 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-07-16 10:51 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

FFS can we stop with the stupid f%#^ing polls? It's July.

#19 | Posted by jpw at 2024-07-16 11:18 AM | Reply

Re 17

Too bad for Trumpy ... we are not voting today.

Will Trumpy call for the vote to be stopped again while he is still ahead?

Will he accept the results if he loses?

Will he attempt another insurrection?

Will he attempt to commit fraud again?

Will he file another 60 court cases in attempt to muddy the waters?

Will the Supreme Court decide who our President is ... again?

So many questions but one thing is certain ...

If Biden loses there WILL be a peaceful transfer of power this time because Biden will concede and accept the results of the elections.

#20 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-07-16 12:22 PM | Reply

538 said Hillary was going to win. You see what happened there. I don't trust polls.

#3 | POSTED BY LAURAMOHR

No, it didn't.

It said Hillary had about a 65% chance to win.

Just like now they are saying Biden has just a slightly better than 50% chance to win.

#21 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-07-16 12:58 PM | Reply

Biden was 53% last time I checked.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

He went up 2% since Trump got shot.

#22 | Posted by horstngraben at 2024-07-16 07:21 PM | Reply

As usual in this arse-backwards country, it will come down to the stupid
antiquated Electoral College.

#23 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-07-17 08:48 AM | Reply