This can be described as an ethnic conflict between Pashtuns (Afghanistan) and Punjabis (Pakistan). The Pakistanis have nukes and a modern air force, so the Afghans will engage in irregular warfare, honed by decades of experience. The Taliban fighters will score mass casualty events against the Pakistanis in the border regions. The Pakistanis are a proud people and do not want to suffer military humiliations with eternal nemesis India watching.

One of the groups to monitor in this mess is the powerful, drug smuggling Haqqani Network (HQN) who are Pashtuns and operate on both sides of the border, as well as Salafist groups within Pakistan who dislike the corruption of the Islamabad government, like the TTP or Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

The Afghan Taliban can also reach out to the anti-Punjab Balochs to conduct attacks in southern Pakistan.

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