Sunday, March 02, 2025

Fed Predicts Negative 1.5% GDP Growth in First Quarter

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

Posted by reinheitsgebot at 03:30 PM | 45 COMMENTS | permalink

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An ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near sure-fire recession signal again has reared its head in the bond market.

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-- CNBC (@cnbc.com) February 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM

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But consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of demand, declined 0.2% in January, the Commerce Department reported Friday, instead of rising as economists expected. It was the largest monthly drop in four years."

"Meanwhile, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index posted its largest monthly decline in February since 2021, and consumer expectations of inflation have risen. An index of global economic policy uncertainty based partly on news articles and economic forecasts has topped its pandemic-era record."

politicalwire.com

The bankruptcy-prone orange pedo built that.

#1 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-03-01 07:54 AM

Concentrating even more wealth in a handful of billionaires, laying off thousands of employees, inflation rising, consumer spending dropping.

Yep...its coming.

Ruining an economy in 30 days has got to a record.

Congratulations to the bankruptcy prone pedo.

#2 | Posted by Nixon at 2025-03-01 08:16 AM

Ruining an economy in 30 days has got to a record.

Operation Warp Speed.

#3 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-03-01 08:37 AM

There's no satisfaction rubbing such things in the noses of such MAGA who come here.

If they have any intelligence at all they know what's going on.

They're evil sumbitches.

We can only hope that they'll die first and give the rest of us some chance to rebuild.

#4 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-01 08:50 AM

Any magats want to guess how long it will take Krasnov to eclipse the 15% u/e rate he racked up during his first disastrous term.

#5 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-03-01 09:36 AM

Thanks, Trumpers!

#6 | Posted by Corky at 2025-03-01 11:05 AM

I told you so you magat -----

#7 | Posted by truthhurts at 2025-03-01 11:15 AM

An "end to the devastating inflation crisis", tariffs and big cuts to taxes, regulation and the size of government are all on the agenda. This combination, he says, will ignite an economic boom and revive withering faith in the American dream. "We're at the beginning of a great, beautiful golden age of business," he pledged from the podium at Mar-a-Lago.
Promises made, promises not kept. Another 10 days and we get to see if he's going to kill daylight saving time like he said he would. LOL. Not.

#8 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-03-01 11:19 AM

Why aren't MAGAts bragging about the bankruptcy-prone rapist's economy?

#9 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-03-02 11:06 AM

BUt I ThOuGhtZ PRrZuhDeIbTz CanT AfFecTz duh EcOnomIeXsz!!

Expect that to be the standard response from the MAGA idiots.

#10 | Posted by jpw at 2025-03-02 11:47 AM

Uh-oh!

I wonder how this happened?

Another mystery from the dawn of time.

#11 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-02 03:59 PM

What Is a Recession?
www.investopedia.com

... A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth indicate a recession. However, more complex formulas are also used to determine recessions.

Economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) measure recessions by looking at nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and retail sales, among other indicators.1 NBER also points out that there is "no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions."

A downturn must be deep, pervasive, and lasting to qualify as a recession by NBER's definition. Since some of these qualities may not be evident when a downturn first begins, many recessions are called retroactively.2 ...


#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-03-02 04:01 PM

@#1 ... But consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of demand, declined 0.2% in January, ...

Consumer loan delinquencies have been increasing since 2021Q4.
fred.stlouisfed.org


#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-03-02 04:18 PM

Citizens United murdering Democracy.

"Nothing can be done."

#14 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2025-03-02 04:21 PM

So did Republicans not understand this was the plan,
Or did Republicans want this?

I don't think they'll ever tell.

#15 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-03-02 04:34 PM

As I've posted here & other sites, we have really tough times coming at us.

Food riots anyone?

#16 | Posted by Yodagirl at 2025-03-02 05:26 PM

This thread is getting crickets from the deplorables. Weird.

#17 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-03-02 08:13 PM

Muskcession

#18 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-03-03 01:08 AM

@#17 ... Weird. ...

Not weird, but almost expected.

#19 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-03-03 01:27 AM

Not weird, but almost expected.

#19 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER

Thoroughly expected.

Economic reality is something that MAGA flees before, like spiders do a Basilisk.

Hell, they flee from reality, period.

They just want what they want. It just has to seem like something in their own minds.

#20 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-03 09:37 AM

MAGAts:

"Gee, that means prices are dropping, doesn't it? It doesn't?"

#21 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2025-03-03 10:33 AM

My sister is executor on our stepfather's estate and I asked her to hurry up in mid-Jan and liquidate his stocks because wump wants to crash the economy. This is what she replied:

"Trump is having to crash the stock market to reset money. He wants it backed by gold like it should be because the dollar is becoming worthless. It's all gonna be better in the long run after the change over occurs but we all are going to have to go through some hard times until the changeover occurs. He is doing all he's doing too get rid of all the corruptness and overtaxing. And bad, corrupt people "

In the alternate reality they occupy the worst criminal and traitor ever born here, the man who betrayed our spies to be murdered, is a good guy.

#22 | Posted by grumpy_too at 2025-03-03 10:40 AM

the man (Trump) who betrayed our spies to be murdered

#22 | POSTED BY GRUMPY_TOO

I imagine he's still doing it.

Your sister welcomes the crash of our economy.

By my observation TRUMP/MAGA wants to crash everything.

Your sister says "we all are going to have to go through some hard time". Does she really include herself in that?

#23 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-03 11:40 AM

Does she really include herself in that?

#23 | POSTED BY ZED

"Do unto others as you would have others do unto you."

So as a Christian (I am assuming she is Christian) she must want to "feel the pain", too.

I could help her out with that.

#24 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-03-03 12:11 PM

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

Sounds like the Atlanta Federal Reserve needs to get with the Trumpy Progom.

This is a clear violation of The Trumpy is Always Right About Everything Policy.

Why are they not fired yet?

#25 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-03-03 02:08 PM

I am hoping his reach does not extend to regional Fed economists. But a lot of them might be Chicago school and are enjoying the devolution, for now.

The Fed is independent, not that the word means anything anymore.

#26 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2025-03-03 02:29 PM

The Atlanta Fed now projects that the economy will shrink by 2.8 percent in Q1 2025

#27 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-03 02:40 PM

Where are the MAGAS?

In the face of bad economic news and World Wars against fascism the hide under rocks.

#28 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-03 02:41 PM

#27 yes this is what I saw, -2.8, it's just a prediction, could be worse.

I have been saying for quite sometime government has been propping up a weak economy.

2024&2023 40% of new jobs were in the government.

No way getting rid of the debt is going to be painless.

#29 | Posted by oneironaut at 2025-03-03 03:19 PM

No way getting rid of the debt is going to be painless.

#29 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

A biblical jubilee was pretty painless. How about we do one of those?

After all.. it's in the Bible!

A "jubilee" in the Bible refers to a special year that happens every 50 years, where debts are forgiven, slaves are freed, and land is returned to its original owners, as described in the Book of Leviticus; while in the Catholic Church, a jubilee is a period declared by the Pope, usually occurring every 25 years, where special indulgences are granted and people are encouraged to make pilgrimages to sacred sites

Where is our Jubilee?

#30 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-03-03 03:28 PM

I have been saying for quite sometime government has been propping up a weak economy.

We have many many examples of Kings in history.

A good king takes care of his people. Even the ones he conquers.

A bad king only takes care of his own family coffers.

Which kind of king do you think King Trumpy will be?

#31 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-03-03 03:32 PM

Which kind of king do you think King Trumpy will be?

Mad.

#32 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-03-03 03:34 PM

No way getting rid of the debt is going to be painless.

#29 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

Trump and his government are unstable.

That's the prime reason things are headed south.

A bright man, a good man, could find a way to handle the debt without wrecking the country.

Even I know such a way.

MAGA's smug stupidity leads everyone to disaster.

#33 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-03 03:39 PM

Which kind of king do you think King Trumpy will be?
Mad.
#32 | Posted by REDIAL

Trump Tariffs Set to Send Car Prices Soaring Up to $12,000 Higher

President Donald Trump's tariffs are expected to send car prices soaring by as much as $12,000 per vehicle, according to automotive experts. On Tuesday, Trump plans to impose sweeping tariffs"an import tax paid by American companies that is typically passed along to consumers"on products from Canada and Mexico, raising prices on vehicles and vehicle parts manufactured in those countries. If Trump follows through with his pledged tariff rate of 25 percent, automotive groups say it will cost at least $4,000 more to build crossover utility vehicles. A large SUV with "significant" parts manufactured in Mexico will see an increase of $9,000, while a pickup truck will see an $8,000 increase. The price to produce an electric vehicle will jump $12,000. In each case, the increased costs will lead to comparably higher prices, which analysts say will quickly result in fewer sales. Best sellers including the Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck and Ford Bronco Sport SUV are likely to be affected. Car sales have already suffered recently thanks to high prices and elevated borrowing costs. Even before the tariffs, sticker prices were up more than 20 percent this year compared to 2020.

www.thedailybeast.com

#34 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2025-03-03 03:42 PM

Firing thousands upon thousands of government employees while cutting funding for services, will adversely impact the economy.

This is just the beginning.

#35 | Posted by ClownShack at 2025-03-03 03:45 PM

Trump will make the dollar worthless.

That will be the end.

#36 | Posted by ClownShack at 2025-03-03 03:46 PM

No way getting rid of the debt is going to be painless.

#29 | Posted by oneironaut

Trump will put the debt on steroids.

#37 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2025-03-03 04:10 PM

A bright man, a good man, could find a way to handle the debt without wrecking the country.

He's going to save $Billions by doing away with Daylight Saving Time. That would normally have started in less than a week.

Unless of course he was lying about doing that as well. Maybe after he "rescues" the astronauts? Finishes The Wall?

LOL.

#38 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-03-03 05:08 PM

The tariffs on Canadian aluminum alone will add $3000 to the price of the magats beloved F150.

#39 | Posted by northguy3 at 2025-03-03 08:48 PM

The tariffs on Canadian Quebecois aluminum alone...

We actually find that part pretty funny.

#40 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-03-03 09:02 PM

so will this big boycott leftist lemmings have come up with have any effect ??

probably not.

--people boycotting target / people with 43 bucks in the bank / most likely

won't move any needles.

#41 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2025-03-04 10:15 AM

Being able to drop a quarterly US GDP prediction by 5.1% from +2.3% to -2.8% in a single week is one of the most impressive economic developments in the history of the world.

~ Oliver Alexander ~

Take a bow, Krasnov.

#42 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-03-04 10:26 AM

won't move any needles.

#41 | POSTED BY SHRIMPTACODAN

Recession/depression is going to move needles.

You have a lot of gall talking about "people with 43 bucks in the bank"

That's you in the next six months.

#43 | Posted by Zed at 2025-03-04 10:32 AM

I for one am looking forward to Trump voters missing meals, losing healthcare, and being cast out of their homes. It's a shame Dem voters will suffer too but it can't be helped at this point.

Am I cheering for the destruction of the country? No.
Am I enjoying the destruction of the country? Absolutely!

Sometimes the only way to save the village is to burn it to the ground. This is one of those rare instances.

Since it's a self inflected wound caused by absolute stupidity, I will enjoy the pain of Trump voters as I'm already positioned to benefit off the chaos.

#44 | Posted by Sycophant at 2025-03-04 11:55 AM

"people boycotting target / people with 43 bucks in the bank / most likely won't move any needles."

Well, they are DEFINITELY going to move, and in fact have already started.

What do you believe IS the reason?

#45 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-03-04 12:54 PM

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