The last ten days have thrown into doubt the role of the United States at the core of the global economic and financial system.
The big picture: After generations in which the U.S. dollar and its government securities have been the world's bedrock safe haven assets, global investors woke up this week to the possibility that they are not particularly safe, and not at all a haven.
Another view ...
Investors dump US government bonds as faith in America falters
www.france24.com
... The upheaval in stocks has been grabbing all the headlines, but there is a bigger problem looming in another corner of the financial markets that rarely gets headlines: Investors are dumping US government bonds.
Treasury bonds are essentially IOUs from the US government, and they're how Washington pays its bills despite collecting less in revenue than it spends. Investors normally rush to them at any whiff of economic chaos " but now they are selling them, as not even the lure of higher interest payments on the bonds is luring buyers.
The freak development has experts worried that big banks, funds and traders are losing faith in America as a stable, predictable place to store their money.
"The fear is the US is losing its standing as the safe haven," said George Cipolloni, a fund manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. "Our bond market is the biggest and most stable in the world, but when you add instability, bad things can happen."
That could be bad news for taxpayers paying interest on the ballooning US debt, consumers taking out mortgages or car loans " and for President Donald Trump, who had hoped his tariff pause earlier this week would restore confidence in the markets.
A week ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 4.01%. On Friday, the yield shot as high as 4.58% before sliding back to around 4.50%. That's a major swing for the bond market, which measures moves by the hundredths of a percentage point. ...
@#2 ... As if Putin designed it. ...
My view is that Pres Putin has long viewed Pres Trump as a "useful idiot" for what Pres Putin wanted to do to the West.
So, Pres Putin then, I'll say, promoted Pres Trump to the forefront.
OpEd: Putin plans to destroy America from within (2017)
www.timesonline.com
... Valery Gerasimov is the Russian general who devised their new geopolitical strategy of hybrid warfare. This is an integrated system of cyberattacks, subversion, espionage and propaganda aimed at undermining Russia's adversaries without firing a single shot.
While Americans bankrupt themselves so as to re-fight the last war, it literally sneaks in the back door. It now seeks to use all of our own weaknesses, hypocrisies and momentum against us. Meanwhile, most Americans don't seem to realize that such a war even exists. ...
The U.S. constitution was drafted by men who knew all the dark powers of authoritarianism, and the many challenges posed in building any real democracy. World history has documented the eagerness of leaders to impose their own beliefs as God's law. Racial, social, economic and political history shows the eagerness of strong-willed groups to dominate their neighbors.
Democracy is a messy business that asks people to give others all possible room necessary to do their thing. It allows good ideas the opportunity to flourish by the power of their civic example, in a sort of cultural free enterprise. ...
Related ...
Why China Buys U.S. Debt With Treasury Bonds (February 2025)
www.investopedia.com
... China has steadily accumulated U.S. Treasury securities over the last few decades. As of December 2024, the Asian nation owned $759 billion in Treasuries (bonds issued by the federal government), which is the main form of U.S. debt to China.12
Some analysts and investors fear China could dump these Treasuries in retaliation and that this weaponization of its holdings would send interest rates higher, potentially hurting economic growth. The amount of Treasuries China holds has been decreasing since 2018. ...
... and, more recently ...
U.S. Rally At Risk As China May Be Dumping Treasuries (April 9, 2025)
www.forbes.com
... U.S. stocks rallied, but soaring overnight Treasury yields suggest China may be quietly selling U.S. debt in response to new tariffs.
With bond markets flashing warning signs while Americans sleep, investors risk missing a major shift. This article explores the hidden risks behind the rally -- and why the celebration may be premature. ...
An interesting viewpoint...
OpEd: We're watching Trump's 7th bankruptcy unfold (2020)
finance.yahoo.com
... As a businessman, Donald Trump ran 6 businesses that declared bankruptcy because they couldn't pay their bills.
As the president running for a second term, Trump is repeating some of the mistakes he made as a businessman and risking the downfall of yet another venture: his own political operation.
In the 1980s, Trump was a swashbuckling real-estate investor who bet big on the rise of Atlantic City after New Jersey legalized gambling there. He acquired three casinos that by 1991 couldn't pay their debts. The Taj Mahal declared bankruptcy in 1991, the Trump Plaza and the Trump Castle in 1992. Lenders restructured the debt rather than liquidate and Trump put his casino holdings into a new company that went bankrupt in 2004. The company that emerged from that restructuring declared bankruptcy in 2009. Trump's 6th bankruptcy was the Plaza Hotel, which he bought in 1988. It went bankrupt by 1992. ...
@#15 ... What would the replacement be for the reserve currency? The Euro? ...
The depends upon how far Pres Trump drags down the US dollar.
OpEd: Trump's Tariffs Were Supposed to Boost the Dollar. Why the Opposite Happened.
www.wsj.com
... While President Trump has always claimed to want a weaker dollar, the consensus among investors was that his policies would strengthen it. Turns out he was right, but perhaps in the worst way.
On Thursday, stocks tumbled in the U.S., Europe and Asia following Trump's unveiling of a raft of punishing "Liberation Day" tariffs. What was more unexpected is that the U.S. dollar tumbled against most major currencies. The WSJ Dollar Index, an indicator based on a basket of currencies, has now lost more than 5.9% this year and is below where it was on Nov. 5, before its postelection rally.
This is making Wall Street analysts look pretty bad: Most were telling investors, even up to the very moment in which tariffs were announced Wednesday, that protectionist policies would push up the currency. The idea was that fewer purchases of overseas goods would narrow the trade deficit and mechanically reduce U.S. demand for foreign exchange.
Also, U.S. growth is outpacing the eurozone's, which has historically been dollar-positive.
Instead, speculators have swung to betting heavily against the greenback ...
@#23 ... they have had not GDP per capita growth ...
How does your current alias extrapolate GDP per capita growth to stability of the underlying monetary unit?
Asked differently, how do Pres Trump's recent declarations, and subsequent retreats, further the stabilization of the US Dollar?
Or are those actions working to destabilize the Dollar?
Then there's this ...
Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar. Getting One Isn't So Easy. (2019)
www.nytimes.com
... President Trump has made no secret of his frustration that the United States dollar has strengthened against other currencies. ...
But, I have to ask, in his attempt to weaken the Dollar, is Pres Trump destroying the Dollar as the world's currency?
"Yes, DUMFUQ. Over half the price of Trump 1.0 AND Trump 2.0 is tax giveaways to the world's wealthiest .1%
#85 | Posted by Danforth"
Do you EVER attempt to tell the truth?
www.cnbc.com
Household in the top 5% " who earn more than $450,000 a year, roughly " are the "biggest winners," according to a July 2024 analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. They'd get over 45% of the benefits of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it said.
So, if the top 5% only get 45%, how it is mathematically possible for the top .1% to get over 50%? BTW, the top 5% pay 61% of all income taxes - so, they get only 45% when they pay 61% is actually Trump giving extra benefits to the middle class at the expense of the rich -------.
taxfoundation.org
So, try harder and try to pick something to lie about that is not so easy to debunk.
"he WORLD's wealthiest 1/10th of 1% got the majority of the tax giveaways."
#99 | Posted by Danforth"
Great, link to that fact -------.
I don't even know how I would even do a Google search on a claim that is so patently ridiculous.
The best I could come up with is the linked article:
www.americanprogress.org
"Of all of the stock holdings of Americans, the top 1 percent by wealth own 52 percent, and the top 10 percent by wealth own 87 percent. And as the Tax Policy Center's Steve Rosenthal has found, about 35 percent of U.S. corporate stock is owned by foreigners. Rosenthal's estimate includes U.S. stocks held by foreign portfolio investors, including wealthy foreign individuals and the sovereign wealth funds of countries such as Norway, China, and Saudi Arabia."
But even this nonsense includes sovereign wealth fund and does not talk about the top .1%.
Also, it claims total foreigner tax savings of $134B in a tax bill that cut $4.5T - so, even with these numbers for foreigners and assuming this is not all foreigners - but only is .1% elite (which it is not), there is no way your claim can be correct.
So, have at it ------- - link to back up your claim or admit that you lied.
"#145 | Posted by Danforth"
And don't think I forgot about you either -------- - where is your link?
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