Kamala Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster

Tuesday, November 05, 2024

As polls open, Vice President Kamala Harris is predicted to win the election by almost every major forecaster.

Posted by Corky at 04:48 PM | 35 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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"Other aggregators echo the close race but similarly give Harris a small advantage.

FiveThirtyEight currently projects her with a 50 percent chance of winning, forecasting 270 Electoral College votes for Harris to Trump's 268.

Meanwhile, U.K. newspaper The Economist predicts that Harris will win 276 votes to Trump's 262"a scenario also reflected by forecaster Larry Sabato.

Race to the White House predicts she will win 275 electoral votes.

Her largest win is predicted by CNanalysis, which forecasts that the vice president will win 308 Electoral College votes to Trump's 230, giving Harris a 70 percent of winning."

Too close for comfort.

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-05 04:50 PM | Reply

So was Hillary.

Let's all breath deep and pray to whatever Gods we believe in.

#2 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-11-05 04:53 PM | Reply

"GOP Strategist's North Carolina Warning for Trump: 'Something's Going On'

A Republican strategist suggested that Donald Trump's campaign is concerned about his prospects in North Carolina, a key battleground state that he won in the last two elections.

Mike Murphy discussed Trump's recent focus on campaigning in the state on the latest episode of the podcast Hacks on Tap with former Barack Obama adviser David Axelrod.

"I think it is more likely than not that he wins Georgia and North Carolina, but I tell you, I mean I've seen polling from those states in the last 48 hours"he's been in North Carolina like four times over the weekend," Axelrod said.

"Yeah, something's going on there," Murphy responded.

Axelrod noted that if Harris wins either Georgia and North Carolina, it would indicate Trump was "in deep trouble."

www.newsweek.com

Boaz wept.

#3 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-05 04:55 PM | Reply

CRUSH MAGAT TRASH

#4 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-11-05 05:12 PM | Reply

I predict we'll all know who won by inauguration day.

#5 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2024-11-05 05:15 PM | Reply

Liberal Redneck - Lord Have Mercy, The 2024 Election is Upon Us

www.youtube.com

#6 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-05 05:29 PM | Reply

I'm not even sure that's the real Donald Trump we've seen on TV with Melania. If it is, he's wearing a lot of plaster on his face.

Still, there's something so different about his appearance that it makes me wonder if his campaign staff was forced to come up with a ringer to finish the last day of the campaign.

#7 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-11-05 05:32 PM | Reply

Either Harris crushes Trump or we may very well need to establish basic intelligence tests for anybody who wants to vote. You know like the one Trump was so proud he passed.

#8 | Posted by Tor at 2024-11-05 05:36 PM | Reply

If I were a younger woman... I would do a shot every time I hear that.

The difference between Hillary and Kamala is Kamala didn't work on the legal team that forced a republicl0wn president to resign... Ms Rodham started bottling cl0wn tears from an early age... she made more enemies.

all the cl0wns have been doing is whining about how Kamala is such an "unknown" this, that, or the other... scraping the bowl for baggage.

#9 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2024-11-05 05:37 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Who will win? A normal centrist politician or the world's ugliest sex doll?

#10 | Posted by truthhurts at 2024-11-05 05:37 PM | Reply

forced to come up with a ringer to finish the last day of the campaign.

Alec Baldwin is available.

#11 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-11-05 06:19 PM | Reply

Early vote tallies coming in from red districts in Indiana showing a 1-4 point swing to harris over what Biden did in 2020. This means -------- share is shrinking in HEAVY maga areas.

that is an EXCELLENT early sign, ------- is losing areas he needs to increase to have a chance

these are white districts with similar demographics to rural Wi and PA

#12 | Posted by truthhurts at 2024-11-05 06:49 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Trump is looking to win. Sad. Am I surrounded by might-makes-right cavemen?

#13 | Posted by Brennnn at 2024-11-06 01:05 AM | Reply

Regardless of outcome, at this point this isn't aging well.

#14 | Posted by kwrx25 at 2024-11-06 05:55 AM | Reply

This aged like milk.

#15 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-11-06 06:37 AM | Reply

Way to go dems. You did it again.

#16 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2024-11-06 06:47 AM | Reply

#16, way to victim shame. This wholly belongs to those who voted for him.

#17 | Posted by TFDNihilist at 2024-11-06 07:16 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Did you guys hear? trump won.

#18 | Posted by beavercleaver at 2024-11-06 07:58 AM | Reply

As polls open, Vice President Kamala Harris is predicted to win the election by almost every major forecaster.

POSTED BY CORKY AT 04:48

This didn't age well!! LOL

#19 | Posted by homerj at 2024-11-06 09:08 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

50/50 or 51/49 is not predicting a win.

Saying that is like saying they predict heads on a coin flip every time.

Who writes these headlines?

#20 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-11-06 01:00 PM | Reply

"50/50 or 51/49 is not predicting a win."

While some did, the overwhelming majority of them predicted a much larger win. But that's just because of numbers, there are a TON more liberal outlets than there are con, so that's just how math works.

#21 | Posted by humtake at 2024-11-06 01:46 PM | Reply

"50/50 or 51/49 is not predicting a win."

#21 | Posted by humtake

Name them.

Not one of them I've seen said that. The BEST was 53%.

#22 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-11-06 02:16 PM | Reply

What did the betting pools say?

#23 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-11-06 06:04 PM | Reply

@#23 ... What did the betting pools say? ...

From what I saw reported on Bloomberg TV, there seemed to be a leaning towards what is called the "Trump trade," i.e., making bets on investments that will provide good returns under a Trump presidency.

Crypto stocks and coins were rising.

From Dollar to Stocks, Trump Trade Erupts Across Markets
www.bnnbloomberg.ca

#24 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-06 06:16 PM | Reply

@#21 ... While some did, the overwhelming majority of them predicted a much larger win. ...

Overwhelming majority?

What planet does your current alias live on?

Most of the reports I saw about the outcome were couched in the "margin of error" disclaimer.

Indeed, the polls I have been citing here for the past number of months turned out to be surprisingly correct, MoE taken into account. In spite of the accusations of herding, etc., that was thrown at them.

And, while I'm on the topic, while I disagree with the leaning of the editorial content of the RCP site, imo, their poll reporting is top-notch.

RCP just presents the polling data, without interpretation or opinion.

Let the data.

#25 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-06 06:22 PM | Reply

None of it added up in the closing weeks. I will never believe this wasnt a hack job...Musk...rumors that the passwords to the voting machines leaked in NC earlier in the week...the GOP constantly cheating before, multiple tries by multiple GOP voters to vote more than once. The constant complaining that the vote was rigged by the Dems. All the while Trump still in contact w Putin. The Right's continued displacement to democrats things which they themselves were guilty of (again) them saying the vote was rigged. Maybe THEY rigged/hacked it, via Musk, via Putin, via China...

And then election night, not a word, and all of the states they needed just fell magically into place...and for the most part, quickly too. No drug out FL (which was said to be closer), no drug out TX (which was also said to be closer)....just bam, bam, bam, all the ducks in a row. Given Trump's love of the Mafia, giving his lackadaisical attitude of not being that worried, and his awful rallies, low energy, people leaving early, low numbers........and then he hits election night out of the park?!! Don't buy it. The fix was in. Somehow, the fix was in.

#26 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-11-06 08:40 PM | Reply

...and it ALL fits his track record/profile...

#27 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-11-06 08:42 PM | Reply

It's not a fix.

Most voting Americas are really this ------- ignorant and sexist/racist.
And then there's the vast majority of Americans who don't even pay attention or vote.

We're surrounded by --------.

#28 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-11-06 08:44 PM | Reply

@#26 ... None of it added up in the closing weeks. ...

The polls (not the predictions based upon those polls, but the polling data) showed a "too close to tell" race, with many states within the margin of error for the polls.

I've yet to see any real (i.e., substantiated) surprises arising from what the polling has stated vs what the counting of the ballots has shown.

imo, the problem, imo, is websites making "predictions" possibly trying to gain web hits.

#29 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-06 09:02 PM | Reply

Poll Results from Trump with Results and Polling Averages

What's the margin of error for polls? +3? It's outside the margin in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

#30 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-11-07 09:39 AM | Reply

pollsters / pundits / strategists / leftist media of all sorts

not me......and if you don't believe me ask Hans...

I said it repeatedly.....I missed the time...."over by 11 est".....so lets go with "over by 11 PST"

because it essentially was.

and how did I know ?...

.one very important moment on 'the view" of all places.

when Sonny asked harris about doing anything different from Biden and she said no.

seminal moment in the campaign and one huge error for democrats.

#31 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 09:56 AM | Reply

oops..forgot the rest of the prediction

"and....it ...won't ....be ....close."

#32 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 10:02 AM | Reply

" It's not a fix.

Most voting Americas are really this ------- ignorant and sexist/racist.
And then there's the vast majority of Americans who don't even pay attention or vote.

We're surrounded by --------.

#28 | POSTED BY ALEXANDRITE AT 2024-11-06 08:44 PM | FLAG: "

That, is why you fail.

#33 | Posted by BellRinger at 2024-11-07 10:15 AM | Reply

---clearly the clientele here thinks that the tactic used by dems nationwide was "solid"

when in fact bigots like alexandrite are very much responsible for the mandate....

and...it...wasn't....even....close.

on a side not and very much expected of 2 faced liars...

Schumer is calling for the gop to be "bipartisan" when it brings issues to the table.

figures the turd says that now.

#34 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 11:11 AM | Reply

" Who writes these headlines?

#20 | POSTED BY SYCOPHANT AT 2024-11-06 01:00 PM | FLAG: "

Corky

#35 | Posted by BellRinger at 2024-11-07 11:41 AM | Reply