RUSI-a MIC aligned think tank believes that Israel, the US and the Gulf States are days to a couple of weeks (depending on the system) from completely running out of interceptor missiles.

Meaning nearly being completely defenseless.

That means Iran will strike Israel, the Gulf States and US bases with the impunity that we are currently hitting Iran.

Think about that

Twelve US troops injured in Iranian strike on base in Saudi Arabia: Report
The Reuters news agency, citing an unnamed US official, is reporting that 12 US troops have been injured, two of them seriously, in an Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

Reuters said the latest casualties add to the more than 300 US military service members who have been wounded since the war on Iran started four weeks ago.

Earlier on Friday, the US military said 273 of the 300 wounded service members had returned to duty.

Thirteen US troops have been killed in the conflict so far, Reuters said.

So, seems like I was right, like usual

Think about that
Israel would nuke them.

#6 | Posted by REDIAL

And Iran will pulverize Israel's nuclear plant and desalination plants

And the Gulf State's desalination plants

And the Gulf State's oil industries

MAD

Iran is most certainly building new weapons.

Due to sanctions, they have been forced to develop self-sufficiency in major areas of production including munitions.

Iran has plenty of natural resources for that end being mountainous and all

Iran concentrates its higher education on STEM.

The drones are relatively low cost/low production munitions and can be mass produced fairly easily.

The fuel for the missiles might be an issue but, it is my understanding Iran may have a rail line to China for such important materials.

Iran has been preparing since 2003 (and possibly since 1991) for a heavy air assault having witnessed the 2 gulf wars. Therefore, the munitions productions, warehousing and operations are buried deep (>500 meters) below ground in reinforced bunkers. Reports are that these bunkers are operational even after getting hit by bunker buster bombs.

Russia has been sending drones to Iran through the Caspian Sea-Apparently Israel bombed a Russian port where these drones were being shipped.

So, ummm, yeah, Iran ain't running out of munitions anytime soon.

FWIW Israel targeted a major steel plant, which Iran has specifically called out to require retaliation for.

To be clear, there is a war of attrition going on.

Iran is sending drones and missiles at Israel, US bases and Gulf States.

Israel and the US are targeting-missile launchers, weapons manufacturing centers and warehouses/missile silos to varying success

Iran, after witnessing the US attack Iraq saw the power of American airpower. they stopped basing their military on an air force (making Piggy's claims of destroying Iran's air force to be a joke)

they have concentrated on missiles and have developed very advanced missile systems. Iran is one of the leaders in Stem technology.

From an amateur's perspective Iran's strategy has been (generally speaking)

1. take out as much radar and early warning systems as possible (they were VERY effective in this which shocked our military). As a result missile defenses have less time to react to incoming threats which then requires more defensive missiles to intercept them.
2. Using older missiles they depleted the defensive missile stockpiles of their enemies. Each $30,000 drone requires multi million dollar missiles to intercept. Each drone can be manufactured quickly while interceptor missiles take months or years to produce
3. Iran has had a measured response to US and Israel attacks. Generally responding with their more advanced missiles in response to specific strategic attacks on their infrastructure, ie targeting Israeli oil production or nukes after THEIR oil production or nukes have been targeted.
4. Iran is finishing phase 2 above as the US/Israel/Gulf States run out of interceptors. Expect an increase in the effectiveness of Iran's attacks in the coming weeks as the defensive missile stockpile wanes
5. Once the defensive stockpiles are nearly or used up, then Iran can hit Israel, the Gulf States and US bases, HARD, with similar impunity to what they have been subjected to. There is little that we can do against their ballistic missiles raining down.

Some observations

Iran has been very humane in their response. Ex. in response to attacks on their steel plant and nuclear facilities they have announced warning to specific industrial locations to evacuate. They have stopped targeting the hotels that are being used by US forces

But Iran holds that as a card they can play. If things go south, they WILL target these structures, stuff like the Biz kalifa (sp?) since American forces are using them. Sort of puts the human shield thing on its head.

Iran has really hit our bases hard. most of them are uninhabitable. that is not good.

it is my understanding Iran may have a rail line to China for such important materials.
I've been wondering about the logistics of shipping stuff to Iran. It borders a lot of puppet countries.

#24 | Posted by REDIAL

I am no expert by a long shot but I understand that older rockets used a liquid fuel which Iran can produce and a solid fuel which they import from China. Learn about Belt and Road initiative

Abu Dhabi is reporting fires in their industrial zone. so umm yeah

BTW several of the Gulf States have significant Shia minorities, I think the UAE is like 50-50 Sunni=Shia so these are ripe for revolution. So, expect sectarian conflict to explode in unforeseen places moving forward.

I wonder if we will hear criticism of the Gulf monarchy dictatorships when they crack down on their people, like Iran did/does

I learned today that Bahrain used to be part of Iran until the 70s.

So, again, we are on the cusp of world changing events.

they have concentrated on missiles and have developed very advanced missile systems.
Part of the concept was to spread that stuff all over the place. Many small targets rather than a few really big ones.

#27 | Posted by REDIAL a

Yep, they split their country into like 30 or 50 military districts with a great deal of decentralized command.

It is actually a fascinating set up for a supposed dictatorship. Dictatorships are typically centralized power structures. Iran saw the writing on the wall and set up this decentralized structure. Each district has it's own fire at will abilities. that would indicate a great deal of dispersed military structure, like target selection, reconnaissance (like do they have access to satellites?), communications (Iran has had a decent amount of coordination within their own military and more tellingly with Hezbollah, which indicates a very sophisticated communication system which we logically should have hit early on.)

Iran borders the Caspian Sea which means direct trade routes with Russia and several neighboring states

the neighboring states have varying friendly and antagonistic relations with Iran, some are corrupt and some are aligned with China.

there is a 10,000 km train route from Tehran to China (finished in 2016 I believe), that allows for transport of critical materials both ways. I am sure this is of somewhat limited capacity but still enough for critical things like solid rocket fuel

People should look at a map once in a while.

Shoot, you can google earth street view distant Russian cities in the middle of the Siberia. Fascinating stuff

You can google earth street view Tehran streets.

Maybe a little looking at who we are trying to kill would educate people

Rail lines and trains seldom do well during wars. How many bridges?

#34 | Posted by REDIAL

Somewhere between 2 and infinity I am sure. The railroad runs through a lot of mountains

Again, it is my firm belief that Iran is winning the war, handily.

Our strategic position is a ticking timebomb til defensive missiles run out and the economy collapses.

Iran has every motivation to keep fighting and zero motivation to reach an agreement.

We've killed, what 2,000? They lost hundreds of thousands in the Iran-Iraq war.

We have ZERO capability to cause a massive impact on their civil structure that Iran can't match tit-for-tat on multiple countries.

Our ONLY card is more bombing (pointless) and ground assault (suicidal and pointless).

Of all the stupid decisions that lead to this insanity the lack of having even barely sufficient forces on hand (in theater) is one of the most egregious, how that got past the pentagon is amazing!

Our military looks like clowns racing QRFs from the west coast, from Okinawa and from North Carolina. What a pathetic joke.

Rail lines and trains seldom do well during wars. How many bridges?
#34 | Posted by REDIAL

You start hitting those then Iran starts hitting Israeli power plants and UAE water desalination plants.

People act like Iran has no ability to respond

Israeli military says missile launched from Yemen
Israel's military said it has detected a missile launched from Yemen.

Aerial defence systems are working to intercept the missile and the public has been alerted of the threat, the military said.

Well, isn't that special

Whodathunk

Will we wake up tomorrow to the exit to the Red Sea being closed?

Thanks magat scum for electing the most corrupt, incompetent monster to the POTUS.

What could go wrong? Amirite?

Dow Jones down 10% since the war started

The problem that Pres Trump now seems to face is the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strait that was wide open before he began his war.
So, when/if Pres Trump gets Iran to return to unfettered passage through the Strait of Hormuz, will he then declare that as a victory.
#39 | Posted by LampLighter

People seem confused about something.

Piggy can no longer declare victory

He can surrender.

But Iran is not going to return to unfettered passage.

They have zero motivation to do so.

Control of that strait is the long-term guarantee that Piggy and Netanyahu won't be back in a year to attack again.

This could be the death of the petro-dollar. Oil traded in Yuan, not the dollar.

All because no one can prevent Iran from preventing shipping from passing a strait.

there is some thought that that will only incentivize alternative routes.

the problem to that theory is by the time that happens the world will be in a global depression

ticking clock and all