RUSI-a MIC aligned think tank believes that Israel, the US and the Gulf States are days to a couple of weeks (depending on the system) from completely running out of interceptor missiles.

Meaning nearly being completely defenseless.

That means Iran will strike Israel, the Gulf States and US bases with the impunity that we are currently hitting Iran.

Think about that

Twelve US troops injured in Iranian strike on base in Saudi Arabia: Report
The Reuters news agency, citing an unnamed US official, is reporting that 12 US troops have been injured, two of them seriously, in an Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

Reuters said the latest casualties add to the more than 300 US military service members who have been wounded since the war on Iran started four weeks ago.

Earlier on Friday, the US military said 273 of the 300 wounded service members had returned to duty.

Thirteen US troops have been killed in the conflict so far, Reuters said.

So, seems like I was right, like usual

Think about that
Israel would nuke them.

#6 | Posted by REDIAL

And Iran will pulverize Israel's nuclear plant and desalination plants

And the Gulf State's desalination plants

And the Gulf State's oil industries

MAD

Iran is most certainly building new weapons.

Due to sanctions, they have been forced to develop self-sufficiency in major areas of production including munitions.

Iran has plenty of natural resources for that end being mountainous and all

Iran concentrates its higher education on STEM.

The drones are relatively low cost/low production munitions and can be mass produced fairly easily.

The fuel for the missiles might be an issue but, it is my understanding Iran may have a rail line to China for such important materials.

Iran has been preparing since 2003 (and possibly since 1991) for a heavy air assault having witnessed the 2 gulf wars. Therefore, the munitions productions, warehousing and operations are buried deep (>500 meters) below ground in reinforced bunkers. Reports are that these bunkers are operational even after getting hit by bunker buster bombs.

Russia has been sending drones to Iran through the Caspian Sea-Apparently Israel bombed a Russian port where these drones were being shipped.

So, ummm, yeah, Iran ain't running out of munitions anytime soon.

FWIW Israel targeted a major steel plant, which Iran has specifically called out to require retaliation for.

To be clear, there is a war of attrition going on.

Iran is sending drones and missiles at Israel, US bases and Gulf States.

Israel and the US are targeting-missile launchers, weapons manufacturing centers and warehouses/missile silos to varying success

Iran, after witnessing the US attack Iraq saw the power of American airpower. they stopped basing their military on an air force (making Piggy's claims of destroying Iran's air force to be a joke)

they have concentrated on missiles and have developed very advanced missile systems. Iran is one of the leaders in Stem technology.

From an amateur's perspective Iran's strategy has been (generally speaking)

1. take out as much radar and early warning systems as possible (they were VERY effective in this which shocked our military). As a result missile defenses have less time to react to incoming threats which then requires more defensive missiles to intercept them.
2. Using older missiles they depleted the defensive missile stockpiles of their enemies. Each $30,000 drone requires multi million dollar missiles to intercept. Each drone can be manufactured quickly while interceptor missiles take months or years to produce
3. Iran has had a measured response to US and Israel attacks. Generally responding with their more advanced missiles in response to specific strategic attacks on their infrastructure, ie targeting Israeli oil production or nukes after THEIR oil production or nukes have been targeted.
4. Iran is finishing phase 2 above as the US/Israel/Gulf States run out of interceptors. Expect an increase in the effectiveness of Iran's attacks in the coming weeks as the defensive missile stockpile wanes
5. Once the defensive stockpiles are nearly or used up, then Iran can hit Israel, the Gulf States and US bases, HARD, with similar impunity to what they have been subjected to. There is little that we can do against their ballistic missiles raining down.

Some observations

Iran has been very humane in their response. Ex. in response to attacks on their steel plant and nuclear facilities they have announced warning to specific industrial locations to evacuate. They have stopped targeting the hotels that are being used by US forces

But Iran holds that as a card they can play. If things go south, they WILL target these structures, stuff like the Biz kalifa (sp?) since American forces are using them. Sort of puts the human shield thing on its head.

Iran has really hit our bases hard. most of them are uninhabitable. that is not good.

it is my understanding Iran may have a rail line to China for such important materials.
I've been wondering about the logistics of shipping stuff to Iran. It borders a lot of puppet countries.

#24 | Posted by REDIAL

I am no expert by a long shot but I understand that older rockets used a liquid fuel which Iran can produce and a solid fuel which they import from China. Learn about Belt and Road initiative

Abu Dhabi is reporting fires in their industrial zone. so umm yeah

BTW several of the Gulf States have significant Shia minorities, I think the UAE is like 50-50 Sunni=Shia so these are ripe for revolution. So, expect sectarian conflict to explode in unforeseen places moving forward.

I wonder if we will hear criticism of the Gulf monarchy dictatorships when they crack down on their people, like Iran did/does

I learned today that Bahrain used to be part of Iran until the 70s.

So, again, we are on the cusp of world changing events.

they have concentrated on missiles and have developed very advanced missile systems.
Part of the concept was to spread that stuff all over the place. Many small targets rather than a few really big ones.

#27 | Posted by REDIAL a

Yep, they split their country into like 30 or 50 military districts with a great deal of decentralized command.

It is actually a fascinating set up for a supposed dictatorship. Dictatorships are typically centralized power structures. Iran saw the writing on the wall and set up this decentralized structure. Each district has it's own fire at will abilities. that would indicate a great deal of dispersed military structure, like target selection, reconnaissance (like do they have access to satellites?), communications (Iran has had a decent amount of coordination within their own military and more tellingly with Hezbollah, which indicates a very sophisticated communication system which we logically should have hit early on.)

Iran borders the Caspian Sea which means direct trade routes with Russia and several neighboring states

the neighboring states have varying friendly and antagonistic relations with Iran, some are corrupt and some are aligned with China.

there is a 10,000 km train route from Tehran to China (finished in 2016 I believe), that allows for transport of critical materials both ways. I am sure this is of somewhat limited capacity but still enough for critical things like solid rocket fuel

People should look at a map once in a while.

Shoot, you can google earth street view distant Russian cities in the middle of the Siberia. Fascinating stuff

You can google earth street view Tehran streets.

Maybe a little looking at who we are trying to kill would educate people

Rail lines and trains seldom do well during wars. How many bridges?

#34 | Posted by REDIAL

Somewhere between 2 and infinity I am sure. The railroad runs through a lot of mountains

Again, it is my firm belief that Iran is winning the war, handily.

Our strategic position is a ticking timebomb til defensive missiles run out and the economy collapses.

Iran has every motivation to keep fighting and zero motivation to reach an agreement.

We've killed, what 2,000? They lost hundreds of thousands in the Iran-Iraq war.

We have ZERO capability to cause a massive impact on their civil structure that Iran can't match tit-for-tat on multiple countries.

Our ONLY card is more bombing (pointless) and ground assault (suicidal and pointless).

Of all the stupid decisions that lead to this insanity the lack of having even barely sufficient forces on hand (in theater) is one of the most egregious, how that got past the pentagon is amazing!

Our military looks like clowns racing QRFs from the west coast, from Okinawa and from North Carolina. What a pathetic joke.

Rail lines and trains seldom do well during wars. How many bridges?
#34 | Posted by REDIAL

You start hitting those then Iran starts hitting Israeli power plants and UAE water desalination plants.

People act like Iran has no ability to respond

Israeli military says missile launched from Yemen
Israel's military said it has detected a missile launched from Yemen.

Aerial defence systems are working to intercept the missile and the public has been alerted of the threat, the military said.

Well, isn't that special

Whodathunk

Will we wake up tomorrow to the exit to the Red Sea being closed?

Thanks magat scum for electing the most corrupt, incompetent monster to the POTUS.

What could go wrong? Amirite?

Dow Jones down 10% since the war started

The problem that Pres Trump now seems to face is the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strait that was wide open before he began his war.
So, when/if Pres Trump gets Iran to return to unfettered passage through the Strait of Hormuz, will he then declare that as a victory.
#39 | Posted by LampLighter

People seem confused about something.

Piggy can no longer declare victory

He can surrender.

But Iran is not going to return to unfettered passage.

They have zero motivation to do so.

Control of that strait is the long-term guarantee that Piggy and Netanyahu won't be back in a year to attack again.

This could be the death of the petro-dollar. Oil traded in Yuan, not the dollar.

All because no one can prevent Iran from preventing shipping from passing a strait.

there is some thought that that will only incentivize alternative routes.

the problem to that theory is by the time that happens the world will be in a global depression

ticking clock and all

Turn that issue around

If you were Iranian leaders, why would you give up control of the Strait?

What conditions would you allow traffic through that area as it was before 2/28?

What agreement would you sign on to give up that control?

US-Israeli forces attack university in Tehran
Iran's Mehr news agency is reporting that US-Israeli forces attacked the Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran in the early hours of this morning, without providing further details.

just attacking schools like it is no big thing

Like that is the question at hand, right?

If you were Iranian leaders, why would you give up control of the Strait?

Piggy seems to think enough bombing and destruction would achieve that end

But would it? From the Iranian perspective.

Put aside the deceit we have done. Put aside we have killed their leaders including the Shia Pope

Are you going to agree to have Israel "mow the lawn" on you whenever they feel like it?

You might as well die fighting that die by sneak attack 2 years from now.

You add on the crusader language, and the pearl harbor attacks, the racist language, the unapologetic killing of children, you think a country 1000 years old won't suffer more pain than America will?

This nation took 100's of thousands of deaths at the hands of Iraq while we funded and aided Iraq's war.

No, the Iranian leaders have ZERO incentive to quit

Piggy can no longer declare victory
Sure he can. He can just say, "We Won!", and leave. Go invade Cuba instead.

#45 | Posted by REDIAL a

I think we can all agree that even Piggy knows he can't just leave the middle east

@#37 ... Our military looks like clowns ...
I disagree.
In my view, it seems to be the Commander in Chief that is looking looking a clown in these military operations.
(OK, the keyboard on this 10-year-old laptop seems to be having issues, e.g., not responding to key presses. The space bar seems to ignore my presses at times. I may have to switch over to my back-up laptop ...)
#46 | Posted by LampLighter

I disagree but I never have had a problem criticizing the US military.

Keep in mind that this war was planned since AT LEAST Christmas, if not since last June (it sure was by Israel for that long)

Yet the Pentagon didn't position even the minimum of QRF in the Gulf.

The Pentagon didn't foresee Iran's ability to destroy our critical radar and early warning systems.

The Pentagon relied on a capital ship with major plumbing problems and very likely known morale problems (if the sabotage occurred and was related to extended deployment and not from politics)

The pentagon couldn't defend 13 bases from being obliterated.

No, I hold the Pentagon at fault as much as the WH.

And for that matter, where are all of the military resignations over an obviously and egregiously illegal war.

Every bomb dropped on Iran is a crime. Keep that in mind.

I'm not so convinced. He'd just tell Bibi to deal with it.

#49 | Posted by REDIAL

Result would be the immediate collapse of multiple gulf state countries, oil at $200/barrel, collapse of the dollar.

Even Piggy is not that stupid.

He WILL use nukes though-he sort of floated that idea last week.

WRT military planning the pentagon is as aware of the operation since at least Maduro's kidnapping as we moved naval assets to the Middle East

The pentagon should have prepared QRFs in theater in case our embassies were stormed or Iran raided Kuwait or something

That is in the military not on piggy

Houthis claimed responsibility for the missile attack on Israel

So it appears they have joined the fight

No mention of the Red Sea

Worse and worse we go

So, its being reported that Iran hit 1 or 2 of our AWACS airplanes and some more air tankers. Not confirmed but...

Their supply line would run through Basra, the third largest city in Iraq. They'd have to come down the actual Highway of Death, in the open, in the face of the USAF and IDF.

#72 | Posted by sitzkrieg a

It was just a random example of some action Iran could have taken, there are hundreds of others that our military did not prepare for.

QRFs should have been present from the beginning of the war. Not having them present is negligent. Our military having to rush MEUs and the 82nd Airborne from across the globe shows incredibly poor planning.

There is no question that is a failure of military planning. Piggy wouldn't be involved in something like that beyond a head nod of approval.

The level of incompetence in our military is staggering. We spend a trillion dollars a year on the military and MIC and we run out of missiles in a month??? Like WTAF

The problem is we don't have the military production capacity. Well why the FUCK NOT?!! We spend more than the next 15 countries on defense COMBINED and we run out of ammunition! It sounds intentional to permit a monopoly on weapons production.

We have spent decades failing to secure basic minerals that are critical to building these weapons!

We have had years to witness the new war (drones and missiles etc.) in Ukraine and yet we cannot defend our critical radar systems!! Did we not learn the capabilities of drone warfare?!

Why are we sending the USS Gerald Ford to conduct extended air operations given it was having major plumbing problems and seemingly has a MAJOR morale problem.

If the sabotage rumors are true, we had a mutiny on the pride of the American navy! LIKE WOW

Other carriers are being chased from the area, our bases are being obliterated.

That is criminal neglect!

This is not 1942 where Japan was able to roll over the Pacific because our military had been neglected for decades and there was a depression that limited spending. We spend a goddamned trillion dollars per years and we are getting our asses kicked and are about to face true defeat when we RUN OUT OF FUCKING AMMUNITION

Yemen fired 1 missile.

#76 | Posted by sitzkrieg

When are morons going to recognize the intelligent strategy of measured response and escalation?

Of course they only fired one missile. It is a measured escalation of the conflict

Iran is is NO HURRY to end this.

EVERY DAY STRENGTHENS THEIR HAND

So, a few days will go by while Israel and the US counter A SINGLE MISSILE.

1 missile will cause huge impact on operations.

Do you military ever learn about initiative? Patton understood it. As did Lee and Grant

Last time they attacked 190 ships using at least 400 missiles, mixed Anti-Ship Cruise missiles, Anti-Ship Ballstic Missiles, and hundreds of one-way fixed wing drones. They sank 2 cargo ships. The Persian Gulf is a bottle where Iran can easily shoot things at you when you try to leave it. The Red Sea you just go around, costs you 10 days in extra shipping time.

#80 | Posted by sitzkrieg

People need to study the economic warfare of Nazi Germany's assault on shipping during WW2.

Delays in the arrival of material and oil is nearly as effective as sinking ships.

"Here's some shit I just made up, but haven't ever looked at the maps."
Just open a map. The livemaps will tell you exactly what's going on.

#82 | Posted by sitzkrieg

Did Iran and it's proxies have the capability to overrun our embassies?

What assets did we have to counter that?

the point is not the specific example it is the criminally negligent disregard for basic military doctrine, i.e. reinforcements.

Yes, the great impact of 1 missile, headed into the densest, most successful air defense network in history.
No. Iran surrogates immediately went offensive when this started. They got heavily bombed in response. Yemen is just late to the party, and now their missile supply line doesn't exist.

#85 | Posted by sitzkrieg a

LOL

Are you aware that every day Israeli wounded from Iranian and Hezbollah missiles, drones and rockets increases?

What does that tell you about the "most successful air defense network in history"?

What will happen when Israel runs out of air defense missiles?

How would you get the Strait of Hormuz opened?

odern war for you, the US just went +400% on THAAD interceptor production and is pushing an all around production ramp on munitions that makes the cold war build up look small and has been in motion across multiple administrations.

#89 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2026-03-28 03:54 PM | Reply | Flag:
(Choose)

MMMMHMMM

You referring to this?

Lockheed Martin and the U.S. Department of War (DoW) have signed a framework agreement to increase production of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors from 96 to 400 per year. This move quadruples output to meet rising demand, with production capacity rising to 400 interceptors per year over the next seven years

from 96 to 400

per year

As of late March 2026, the U.S. and allies have heavily depleted their stockpiles in the Iran conflict, with estimates suggesting hundreds of interceptors used. One report indicated that within days of February 2026 strikes, Arab partners and the U.S. burned through 800 PAC-3 MSE or THAAD interceptors, while another estimate for the first 16 days of the conflict noted nearly 40% of U.S. THAAD inventory was

Assembling a single THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) interceptor missile takes approximately six weeks from start to finish. However, due to complex supply chains and specialized component manufacturing, replenishing the overall stockpile takes much longer, with industry estimates suggesting it takes years to significantly increase production numbers.

GOAL of 400 per year

I stand by my earlier assessment

Even after the Trump Administration met with defence industry executives on 6 March, our discussions with defence firms indicate that no production surge has occurred because no funded orders have been placed

Industry leaders are reluctant to increase production without firm commitments, having been burned' in the past by promises of funding that did not materialize. Compounding this, the sole American factory for high explosives, Holston Army Ammunition Plant, has not received orders to increase production. Industrial base production is only made worse by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens upstream supply chains for vital materials like sulphur.

Again, we spend a trillion dollars per year

And we run out of ammunition.

SOLE AMERICAN FACTORY

Criminal negligence

a trillion dollars per year

As Table 2 shows, over a dozen munition types have been expended by the coalition at a rate that appears to be unsustainable. Already, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger noted on 19 March that global stockpiles are empty or nearly empty' and that if the war continues another month we nearly have no missiles available'.

Israel is days from depleting it's more important and effective interceptors

They will essentially have only their Iron dome stuff which works against rockets and drones (to an extent) but not to ballistic missiles.

That will leave Israel completely open.

It all comes down to 2 things

1. Criminal neglect in the supply chain
2. Negligence in protecting the early warning system which allowed for a more efficient interceptor usage. Essentially Israel has less time to react so must use more interceptors, with a lower chance of intercept and draining supplies faster.

I would imagine that one reason we hear about "missile fragments" causing damage is because the interceptions occur later in flight closer to Israeli cities. that is just speculation on my part.

No argument on the first comment

WRT the military option.

Can we agree that the goal would be to get tanker and VLCC back and forth through the straits?

Let's assume your attack is militarily successful without undue casualties.

How will your military option prevent Iran from sending drones or missiles to any of the numerous gulf ports or at any of the oil infrastructure?

If Iran retains that capability, will tankers and VLCC transit back and forth through the straits?

Tit for tat escalation? Send an empty VLCC through with no crew. If small boats come out they'll have a really bad day. If cruise missiles or drones hit it, do equal damage to Kharg. Let them cut their own throats at the expense of internationally flagged, empty cargo ships.

What will be the impact on the price of oil if we damage Kharg Island?

Just a reminder that we have been at war for a month and the POTUS hasn't bothered to address the nation about it.

How would you get the Strait of Hormuz opened?
#88 | Posted by truthhurts
Impeach Trump, and try him for Treason.

#102 | Posted by snoofy

I've been saying that since he started the war. that the only and best chance out of this is to hold Piggy personally responsible for it, apologize to Iran and see if we can come to an agreement similar to JCPOA.

Beyond that all options are really really really really bad