Iran Is Attacking Ships in the Strait at Record Levels

@#15 ... Do those effect the global price? ...

So what does effect the global price of oil?

OK, first and foremost --- supply vs demand.

Then, secondarily, the cost of that supply.

Strait of Hormuz Insurance Rates Explained: What War-Risk Cover Costs in 2026
thebostonreport.com

... Insuring a tanker for a single trip through the Strait of Hormuz now costs about 6% to 10% of the ship's hull value in war-risk premiums, insurance brokers told the Financial Times in early October 2026. Before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, the same cover typically cost 0.15% to 0.25%. For a $100 million tanker, that is the difference between about $250,000 and $6 million to $10 million for one voyage. The Financial Times reported that this can mean up to $20 million in war insurance for one supertanker voyage into the Gulf. ...

So, the tankers that do get through have to pay a much larger insurance cost.

Also ...

Strait of Hormuz shipping costs surge as tanker crews command danger pay (July 2026)
tradersunion.com

... As first reported by the Financial Times, tanker owners are offering sharply higher wages and voyage bonuses to persuade seafarers to keep sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian attacks intensify. People close to tanker owners and crews say ordinary sailors are receiving at least four to six times their normal pay during each transit, while crews already get double pay in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Oman.

Because many of the voyages are made by dedicated tankers on regular shuttle runs, some crews are able to earn the elevated rates for months at a time. A captain, or master, typically earns about $15,000 a month under normal conditions, while regular sailors can start at about $1,500 a month, highlighting how sharply compensation has increased.

Freight markets are reflecting the same risk premium. Rates for cargoes moving through the waterway have reached a record $1.3 million a day this week, up from roughly $20,000 to $50,000 a day last year, with only a limited number of ships willing to make the trip and transfer cargoes to other tankers waiting off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. ...

That was back in July ...

Stated differently, when Brent crude returns to its pre-February 226 price, I will say that the Straait of Hormuz is fully open.

So.. On the 1st of Never then?

It's looking more and more like this is the new normal.

Some things cannot be undone.

Trumpy has two years to figure out how to unravel the mess he has made. At best.

The odds are NOT in his favor.

@#16

What is Pres Trump going to do to solve the high cost of oil that he caused?

Continue to give Pres Putin more money?

#16 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-10-28 07:19 PM | Reply

Those were all rhetorical. I have non-oil cargo that formerly went through there. It was relatively cheap and convenient. UAE, Suez, Atlantic, US ports. Now it goes the other direction through India and takes 3 months longer.

@#19 ... Those were all rhetorical. ...

Why?

... I have non-oil cargo that formerly went through there. ...

So, a diversion of shipping routes?

To be clear what is happening is that the gulf states are transiting back and forth and then transferring the crude oil into commercial ships out of the strait, ie. the usual commercial ships are not going into the strait (at least not at pre war numbers)

This greatly reduces actual flow of oil. I've heard that this shuttling reduces the amount of processed crude i.e. gasoline is transferred, but I can't confirm it

Fertilizer transit remains stopped and well that will have near term catastrophic effects

@#21 ... Fertilizer transit ...

Good point.

The talk of the Strait of Hormuz tends to focus upon crude oil.

But there are other needed products that also have traversed that strait.

Found this ...

unctad.org
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers.

... The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. ...

Here is something to contemplate

Fertilizer innovation directly drives global population growth by dramatically increasing crop yields, allowing a limited amount of arable land to feed billions more people

Feeding Billions: According to data tracked by Our World in Data, synthetic nitrogen fertilizers currently sustain roughly 50% of the human population.

Quick lesson is synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are absolutely critical to sustaining the global population.

Approximately 30% to 35% of globally traded synthetic nitrogen fertilizer (such as urea and ammonia) and raw inputs like natural gas and sulfur originate from countries inside the Persian Gulf and must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

So, around 1/3 of the globally traded synthetic nitrogen fertilizer has been taken off the global market. For nine months and counting

Major export-oriented production facilities sit along the Persian Gulf coast in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran (with Iran supplying roughly 10% of global urea)

10% of the globes urea (a critical component of SNF) is currently being blockaded by Piggy.

Urea prices are up 10% since the war started, DAP (phosphate fertilizer material) is up 25%

So, ummm yeah

@#23 ... Here is something to contemplate ...

Maybe something else to contemplate besides the slowing of fertilizer transits through the Strait of Hormuz ...

9-23-30 & Potash Fertilizer Prices: What Farmers Pay Now (September 2026)
farmonaut.com

... Potash (0-0-60 muriate of potash, or MOP) is running $500-$535 per ton at Corn Belt retail as of August-September 2026, and 9-23-30 blends move with it because potash supplies the "30" -- the potassium component -- in that mix.

A 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian potash imports, in effect since March 4, 2025, is the direct cause: Canada supplies roughly 80% of U.S. potash, and CRU Group's pre-tariff modeling forecast a $65-per-metric-ton Midwest price increase once the tariff took hold. ...