I'm not so convinced. He'd just tell Bibi to deal with it.

#49 | Posted by REDIAL

Result would be the immediate collapse of multiple gulf state countries, oil at $200/barrel, collapse of the dollar.

Even Piggy is not that stupid.

He WILL use nukes though-he sort of floated that idea last week.

@#37 ... Our military looks like clowns ...
I disagree.
In my view, it seems to be the Commander in Chief that is looking looking a clown in these military operations.
(OK, the keyboard on this 10-year-old laptop seems to be having issues, e.g., not responding to key presses. The space bar seems to ignore my presses at times. I may have to switch over to my back-up laptop ...)
#46 | Posted by LampLighter

I disagree but I never have had a problem criticizing the US military.

Keep in mind that this war was planned since AT LEAST Christmas, if not since last June (it sure was by Israel for that long)

Yet the Pentagon didn't position even the minimum of QRF in the Gulf.

The Pentagon didn't foresee Iran's ability to destroy our critical radar and early warning systems.

The Pentagon relied on a capital ship with major plumbing problems and very likely known morale problems (if the sabotage occurred and was related to extended deployment and not from politics)

The pentagon couldn't defend 13 bases from being obliterated.

No, I hold the Pentagon at fault as much as the WH.

And for that matter, where are all of the military resignations over an obviously and egregiously illegal war.

Every bomb dropped on Iran is a crime. Keep that in mind.

Piggy can no longer declare victory
Sure he can. He can just say, "We Won!", and leave. Go invade Cuba instead.

#45 | Posted by REDIAL a

I think we can all agree that even Piggy knows he can't just leave the middle east

Like that is the question at hand, right?

If you were Iranian leaders, why would you give up control of the Strait?

Piggy seems to think enough bombing and destruction would achieve that end

But would it? From the Iranian perspective.

Put aside the deceit we have done. Put aside we have killed their leaders including the Shia Pope

Are you going to agree to have Israel "mow the lawn" on you whenever they feel like it?

You might as well die fighting that die by sneak attack 2 years from now.

You add on the crusader language, and the pearl harbor attacks, the racist language, the unapologetic killing of children, you think a country 1000 years old won't suffer more pain than America will?

This nation took 100's of thousands of deaths at the hands of Iraq while we funded and aided Iraq's war.

No, the Iranian leaders have ZERO incentive to quit

US-Israeli forces attack university in Tehran
Iran's Mehr news agency is reporting that US-Israeli forces attacked the Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran in the early hours of this morning, without providing further details.

just attacking schools like it is no big thing

Turn that issue around

If you were Iranian leaders, why would you give up control of the Strait?

What conditions would you allow traffic through that area as it was before 2/28?

What agreement would you sign on to give up that control?

The problem that Pres Trump now seems to face is the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strait that was wide open before he began his war.
So, when/if Pres Trump gets Iran to return to unfettered passage through the Strait of Hormuz, will he then declare that as a victory.
#39 | Posted by LampLighter

People seem confused about something.

Piggy can no longer declare victory

He can surrender.

But Iran is not going to return to unfettered passage.

They have zero motivation to do so.

Control of that strait is the long-term guarantee that Piggy and Netanyahu won't be back in a year to attack again.

This could be the death of the petro-dollar. Oil traded in Yuan, not the dollar.

All because no one can prevent Iran from preventing shipping from passing a strait.

there is some thought that that will only incentivize alternative routes.

the problem to that theory is by the time that happens the world will be in a global depression

ticking clock and all

Israeli military says missile launched from Yemen
Israel's military said it has detected a missile launched from Yemen.

Aerial defence systems are working to intercept the missile and the public has been alerted of the threat, the military said.

Well, isn't that special

Whodathunk

Will we wake up tomorrow to the exit to the Red Sea being closed?

Thanks magat scum for electing the most corrupt, incompetent monster to the POTUS.

What could go wrong? Amirite?

Dow Jones down 10% since the war started

Rail lines and trains seldom do well during wars. How many bridges?
#34 | Posted by REDIAL

You start hitting those then Iran starts hitting Israeli power plants and UAE water desalination plants.

People act like Iran has no ability to respond

Again, it is my firm belief that Iran is winning the war, handily.

Our strategic position is a ticking timebomb til defensive missiles run out and the economy collapses.

Iran has every motivation to keep fighting and zero motivation to reach an agreement.

We've killed, what 2,000? They lost hundreds of thousands in the Iran-Iraq war.

We have ZERO capability to cause a massive impact on their civil structure that Iran can't match tit-for-tat on multiple countries.

Our ONLY card is more bombing (pointless) and ground assault (suicidal and pointless).

Of all the stupid decisions that lead to this insanity the lack of having even barely sufficient forces on hand (in theater) is one of the most egregious, how that got past the pentagon is amazing!

Our military looks like clowns racing QRFs from the west coast, from Okinawa and from North Carolina. What a pathetic joke.

Rail lines and trains seldom do well during wars. How many bridges?

#34 | Posted by REDIAL

Somewhere between 2 and infinity I am sure. The railroad runs through a lot of mountains

People should look at a map once in a while.

Shoot, you can google earth street view distant Russian cities in the middle of the Siberia. Fascinating stuff

You can google earth street view Tehran streets.

Maybe a little looking at who we are trying to kill would educate people

Iran borders the Caspian Sea which means direct trade routes with Russia and several neighboring states

the neighboring states have varying friendly and antagonistic relations with Iran, some are corrupt and some are aligned with China.

there is a 10,000 km train route from Tehran to China (finished in 2016 I believe), that allows for transport of critical materials both ways. I am sure this is of somewhat limited capacity but still enough for critical things like solid rocket fuel

they have concentrated on missiles and have developed very advanced missile systems.
Part of the concept was to spread that stuff all over the place. Many small targets rather than a few really big ones.

#27 | Posted by REDIAL a

Yep, they split their country into like 30 or 50 military districts with a great deal of decentralized command.

It is actually a fascinating set up for a supposed dictatorship. Dictatorships are typically centralized power structures. Iran saw the writing on the wall and set up this decentralized structure. Each district has it's own fire at will abilities. that would indicate a great deal of dispersed military structure, like target selection, reconnaissance (like do they have access to satellites?), communications (Iran has had a decent amount of coordination within their own military and more tellingly with Hezbollah, which indicates a very sophisticated communication system which we logically should have hit early on.)

Abu Dhabi is reporting fires in their industrial zone. so umm yeah

BTW several of the Gulf States have significant Shia minorities, I think the UAE is like 50-50 Sunni=Shia so these are ripe for revolution. So, expect sectarian conflict to explode in unforeseen places moving forward.

I wonder if we will hear criticism of the Gulf monarchy dictatorships when they crack down on their people, like Iran did/does

I learned today that Bahrain used to be part of Iran until the 70s.

So, again, we are on the cusp of world changing events.

it is my understanding Iran may have a rail line to China for such important materials.
I've been wondering about the logistics of shipping stuff to Iran. It borders a lot of puppet countries.

#24 | Posted by REDIAL

I am no expert by a long shot but I understand that older rockets used a liquid fuel which Iran can produce and a solid fuel which they import from China. Learn about Belt and Road initiative

Some observations

Iran has been very humane in their response. Ex. in response to attacks on their steel plant and nuclear facilities they have announced warning to specific industrial locations to evacuate. They have stopped targeting the hotels that are being used by US forces

But Iran holds that as a card they can play. If things go south, they WILL target these structures, stuff like the Biz kalifa (sp?) since American forces are using them. Sort of puts the human shield thing on its head.

Iran has really hit our bases hard. most of them are uninhabitable. that is not good.

To be clear, there is a war of attrition going on.

Iran is sending drones and missiles at Israel, US bases and Gulf States.

Israel and the US are targeting-missile launchers, weapons manufacturing centers and warehouses/missile silos to varying success

Iran, after witnessing the US attack Iraq saw the power of American airpower. they stopped basing their military on an air force (making Piggy's claims of destroying Iran's air force to be a joke)

they have concentrated on missiles and have developed very advanced missile systems. Iran is one of the leaders in Stem technology.

From an amateur's perspective Iran's strategy has been (generally speaking)

1. take out as much radar and early warning systems as possible (they were VERY effective in this which shocked our military). As a result missile defenses have less time to react to incoming threats which then requires more defensive missiles to intercept them.
2. Using older missiles they depleted the defensive missile stockpiles of their enemies. Each $30,000 drone requires multi million dollar missiles to intercept. Each drone can be manufactured quickly while interceptor missiles take months or years to produce
3. Iran has had a measured response to US and Israel attacks. Generally responding with their more advanced missiles in response to specific strategic attacks on their infrastructure, ie targeting Israeli oil production or nukes after THEIR oil production or nukes have been targeted.
4. Iran is finishing phase 2 above as the US/Israel/Gulf States run out of interceptors. Expect an increase in the effectiveness of Iran's attacks in the coming weeks as the defensive missile stockpile wanes
5. Once the defensive stockpiles are nearly or used up, then Iran can hit Israel, the Gulf States and US bases, HARD, with similar impunity to what they have been subjected to. There is little that we can do against their ballistic missiles raining down.

Iran is most certainly building new weapons.

Due to sanctions, they have been forced to develop self-sufficiency in major areas of production including munitions.

Iran has plenty of natural resources for that end being mountainous and all

Iran concentrates its higher education on STEM.

The drones are relatively low cost/low production munitions and can be mass produced fairly easily.

The fuel for the missiles might be an issue but, it is my understanding Iran may have a rail line to China for such important materials.

Iran has been preparing since 2003 (and possibly since 1991) for a heavy air assault having witnessed the 2 gulf wars. Therefore, the munitions productions, warehousing and operations are buried deep (>500 meters) below ground in reinforced bunkers. Reports are that these bunkers are operational even after getting hit by bunker buster bombs.

Russia has been sending drones to Iran through the Caspian Sea-Apparently Israel bombed a Russian port where these drones were being shipped.

So, ummm, yeah, Iran ain't running out of munitions anytime soon.

FWIW Israel targeted a major steel plant, which Iran has specifically called out to require retaliation for.