Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Is Iran's regime at a breaking point?

Eighteen days into the conflict, Iran's Revolutionary Guards remain active despite major setbacks. Their flexible command structure sustains operations, yet analysts see signs of pressure within the power system.

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... Eighteen days after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the first hours of the war, and eliminating other political and military leaders, it would have been safe to assume the power center of the Islamic Republic had been fatally destabilized.

"But as the third week of the war begins, it is becoming clear that this assessment does not match reality. Iran's power structure has overcome the initial shock," Middle East analyst Habib HosseiniFard told DW.

Bruised but not eliminated, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are continuing to carry out attacks on several fronts against the US, Israel and neighboring Arab states. They are relying on a decentralized and wellconnected command structure. ...

Against this backdrop, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has ruled out negotiations, saying there will be no cease-fire as long as the US and Israel continue to strike Iranian targets.

He appears able to rely on a stillrobust military apparatus, with the IRGC as the key actor capable of responding flexibly to constantly changing situations. ...

Why Iran can still fight as a 'failed state'

Reza Talebi, a political analyst, points to Iran's internal structure and warns against simplistic assumptions about a possible collapse of power in Iran. ...



#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-03-17 07:35 PM

@#1 ... warns against simplistic assumptions about a possible collapse of power in Iran ...

From what I've read, Pres Trump seems to have thought that Iran would be a short ~in and out~ operation, like Venezuela.


#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2026-03-17 07:42 PM

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