According to the Congressional Budget Office, 2030 is the year when federal debt held by the public as a share of the economy will exceed the record set by World War II. Unlike in the '40s, this debt shows no signs of ever declining. The year 2030 is also roughly when the ratio of seniors to the total population will reach 1 in 5. As recently as 2008, the ratio was around 1 in 8. Seniors' rising share of the population mechanically raises Social Security and Medicare costs and pushes them onto a proportionally smaller working population. Medicare's budget-busting makes Social Security's look modest by comparison. Of the projected $138 trillion budget shortfall over the next 30 years, $109 trillion is from Medicare. The fiscal challenges scheduled to arrive in the 2030s are actually based on optimistic assumptions. They are from the CBO's baseline estimates, which assume no wars, no recessions, low and stable inflation and no new government programs or tax changes.