A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll "shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states."
... A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll "shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% ...
2024 Iowa: Multi-Candidate
www.realclearpolling.com
...
Des Moines Register 10/28 - 10/31 Harris +3
Des Moines Register 9/8 - 9/11 Trump +4
...
That's a 7-point swing, some of that may be due to RFK Jr losing 3 points.
Not a good trend for fmr Pres Trump.
@#6 ... People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long ...
I posted this article on the back page a day or two ago...
How Connecticut transformed from a Republican state to among the most Democratic
www.ctinsider.com
Something happened in 1992 here in this state.
Bar chart ...
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
In words....
1972 - 162 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 8 for the Democratic candidate
1984 - 162 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 8 for the Democratic candidate
1988 - 130 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 40 for the Democratic candidate
1992 - 63 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 106 for the Democratic candidate
1996 - 33 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 137 for the Democratic candidate
Something happened in 1992.
Tanielx.com
@Taniel
Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)
Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.
But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.
Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.
But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.
BUT ALSO: 2024 polling is so different than 2016 & 2020. Pretty much no pollster shows a snap back in IA & OH. And *that* was the reality check Selzer had offered in the past. So it's just so different this year in terms of what reality check it may offer, even mythologized one.
Nate Silver: There's more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
In our database as of this afternoon's model run, there were 249 polls in the seven battleground states that met Silver Bulletin standards and did at least some of their fieldwork in October. How many of them showed the race in either direction within 2.5 percentage points, close enough that you could basically call it a tie?
Well, 193 of them did, or 78 percent. That's way more than you should get in theory - even if the candidates are actually exactly tied in all seven states, which they almost certainly aren't.
Based on a binomial distribution - which assumes that all polls are independent of one another, which theoretically they should be - it's realllllllllllllly unlikely. Specifically, the odds are 1 in 9.5 trillion against at least this many polls showing such a close margin.
The problems are most acute in Wisconsin, where there have been major polling errors in the past and pollsters seem terrified of going out on a limb. There, 33 of 36 polls - more than 90 percent - have had the race within 2.5 points. In theory, there's just a 1 in 2.8 million chance that so many polls would show the Badger State so close.
Trump on SNL:
2nd appearance
S41.E4
Donald Trump/Sia (2015)
Taran Killam, Donald Trump, and Darrell Hammond during the monologue on November 7, 2015
www.imdb.com
Jim Carroll Band - City Drops into the Night (1980)
The Jim Carroll Band
www.youtube.com
Lyrics excerpt ...
...
It's when Billy's whores are workin'
They're workin' with the skeleton crew
It's when the sky over Jersey
That sky starts to drain from view
It's when my woman pawns her voice so
So she can make her old excuses sound new
But I just want one clue
'Cause when the city drops into the night
Before the darkness there's one moment of light
When everything seems clear
The other side, it seems so near
What seemed wrong?
I think it's gonna be just about right
Before the city drops, the city drops
Into the night ...
God, I hope so:
From Letters from an American:
Yesterday, in Time magazine, Eric Cortellessa explained that the electoral strategy of the Trump campaign was to get men who don't usually vote, particularly young ones, to turn out for Trump. If they could do that, and at the same time hold steady the support of white women, Trump could win the election. So Trump has focused on podcasts followed by young men and on imitating the patterns of professional wrestling performances. . . .heathercoxrichardson.substack.com
Rather than keeping women in his camp, Trump's strategy of reaching out to his base to turn out low-propensity voters, especially young men, has alienated them. That alienation has come on top of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that recognized the constitutional right to abortion.
Early voting in Pennsylvania showed that women sent in 56% of the early ballots, compared to 43% for men. Seniors--people who remember a time before Roe v. Wade--also showed a significant split. Although the parties had similar numbers of registrants, nearly 59% of those over 65 voting early were Democrats. That pattern holds across all the battleground states: women's early voting outpaces men's by about 10 points. While those numbers are certainly not definitive--no one knows how these people voted, and much could change over the next few days--the enthusiasm of those two groups was notable....
In Flagstaff, Arizona, today, Democratic presidential candidate and Minnesota governor Tim Walz told a crowd: "I kind of have a feeling that women all across this country, from every walk of life, from either party, are going to send a loud and clear message to Donald Trump next Tuesday, November 5, whether he likes it or not."
Trump's once enthusiastic crowds dwindle in election's closing days
Trump has been drawing smaller crowds than normal in the past week, with many attendees leaving while he's still speaking.
In Raleigh, N.C., Monday, the first of his four rallies of the day, there were well over a thousand empty seats and no line to get in.
At his second rally in Reading, Pa., the arena appeared about half full shortly before Trump was scheduled to begin his remarks. The timing of his address was later pushed back an hour.
Trump drew several thousand people at his third event at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, but even there, the upper deck was curtained off and some seats were empty.
There have been similar scenes in the past week.
In Macon, Ga., on Sunday, Trump didn't fill the venue he was speaking at, and attendees left throughout his address.
His events in Kingston, N.C., and Lititz, Pa., Sunday likewise only drew a couple of thousand people.
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