Kamala Leads in Iowa | Drudge Retort

Sunday, November 03, 2024

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll "shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states."

Posted by reinheitsgebot at 11:05 AM | 86 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

----------- Donnie's in trouble.

#1 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-11-02 07:19 PM

Shock Iowa Poll Shows Harris With Lead Over Trump

The poll, sponsored by the Des Moines Register and conducted by J. Ann Selzer, nailed the final results of the presidential race in Iowa in both 2016 and 2020. While Iowa is no longer considered a swing state and rewards only six electoral voters, the Register survey remains closely watched as an indicator of how white voters across the Midwest may vote.

The poll found Harris earning 47 percent of the vote to 44 percent for Trump.

"It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," Selzer told the newspaper. "She has clearly leaped into a leading position."

Selzer and the Register surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

www.huffpost.com

This is friggin' incredible. Iowa isn't even a swing state and at worst (considering the MOE) Harris is in a dead heat with Trump 48 hours from Election Day. Hans wants a prediction and I've been loathe to jinx it, but this news confirms what I feel: Women are going to defeat Trump beyond any point of argument, while the GOP nationally will see unprecedented defeats of candidates they thought were bulletproof.

And Donnie will become a sentenced felon in a matter of days after his crushing defeat. What a way to end the year! Happy Roevember everybody.

If I am correct Seltzer's polls are highly respected

If Iowa is this close I have to believe #Roevember is playing a role.

"Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That's driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.

Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%."

www.desmoinesregister.com

From Iowa's mouth to America's heart.

x.com

Lyz Lenz
@lyzl
People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It's the abortion ban. Women are furious.

... A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll "shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% ...

2024 Iowa: Multi-Candidate
www.realclearpolling.com

...
Des Moines Register 10/28 - 10/31 Harris +3
Des Moines Register 9/8 - 9/11 Trump +4
...

That's a 7-point swing, some of that may be due to RFK Jr losing 3 points.

Not a good trend for fmr Pres Trump.

Killing women, children, and their grandparents with your Oligarch policies turns out to be unpopular?

Huh.

Perhaps if Donnie went to Iowa and fellated a microphone, that might turn the tide?

People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long and let me tell you, as someone who lives here & writes about this state. It's the abortion ban. Women are furious.
#6 | Posted by truthhurts

Opening in three short nights?

Revenge of the Cat Ladies!
Created, Produced, and Starring JD Vance
Supporting Role by "Grab them by the Kitty" Orange Adolf

If I am correct Seltzer's polls are highly respected
#3 | Posted by truthhurts

She has a good track record:

Matthew Klein
@MattKleinOnline
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets.

x.com

Kamala Harris on SNL tonight

Maybe Kamala will------- a microphone on Live TV, you know, just to upstage Trump.

emptywheel
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

@#6 ... People want to know how Iowa could swing towards Harris, when the state has been solidly red for so long ...

I posted this article on the back page a day or two ago...

How Connecticut transformed from a Republican state to among the most Democratic
www.ctinsider.com

Something happened in 1992 here in this state.

Bar chart ...
datawrapper.dwcdn.net

In words....

1972 - 162 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 8 for the Democratic candidate
1984 - 162 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 8 for the Democratic candidate
1988 - 130 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 40 for the Democratic candidate
1992 - 63 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 106 for the Democratic candidate
1996 - 33 towns voted for Republican presidential candidate, 137 for the Democratic candidate

Something happened in 1992.

Taniel
@Taniel

Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)

Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.

But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.

Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.

But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.

BUT ALSO: 2024 polling is so different than 2016 & 2020. Pretty much no pollster shows a snap back in IA & OH. And *that* was the reality check Selzer had offered in the past. So it's just so different this year in terms of what reality check it may offer, even mythologized one.

x.com

@#12 ... Kamala Harris on SNL tonight ...

Yeah, the TiVo here is set to record that show each time it airs a new episode.

I remember watching the first episode of SNL when it was broadcast.

About a half dozen of my Fraternity Brothers and I were sitting and watching.

The consensus opinion - (looking at each other incredulously) ~this is different.~

Back in 1975 it became a go-to program to watch ...

Ann Seltzer on MSNBC right now...

Three days before the election of my lifetime and Harris is going on SNL. There's her base. Drunken, drugged up Gen Z losers and low hanging fruit that vote. Meet Gaslighter, take your pick.

Jonathan Martin
@jmart

The Selzer story is not, necessarily, a Harris lead in Iowa

It is Harris leading by 20 points among women in a heavily white, Midwestern state.

Oh, sorry, wrong thread!

Three days before the election of my lifetime and Harris is going on SNL. There's her base. Drunken, drugged up Gen Z losers and low hanging fruit that vote. Meet Gaslighter, take your pick.
#19 | Posted by gracieamazed

Lol! Obama, McCain and Sarah Palin all went on SNL.

DonOld couldn't make it because it's past his bedtime? Or it is because he would fall apart at the slightest humor at his expense because he is a micro-penis, Epstein-pal, microphone-fellating, rapist, 34-time convicted felon?

@#16 ... IT'S JUST ONE POLL. ...

Yup.

I agree.

#20

That much self-righteous moral indignation coming from someone who's candidate just mimed giving a-------- using a microphone at a political rally, which will now be carried on all major media... rings pretty damn hollow.

@#19 ... There's her base. Drunken, drugged up Gen Z losers and low hanging fruit that vote ...

That's who you think the demographic is who watch SNL?

Why?

Got data to back that up?

That aside, you also seem to think the demographic your describe is VP Harris' base.

Why do you make that leap?

Again, got data?

Nate Silver: There's more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

In our database as of this afternoon's model run, there were 249 polls in the seven battleground states that met Silver Bulletin standards and did at least some of their fieldwork in October. How many of them showed the race in either direction within 2.5 percentage points, close enough that you could basically call it a tie?

Well, 193 of them did, or 78 percent. That's way more than you should get in theory - even if the candidates are actually exactly tied in all seven states, which they almost certainly aren't.

Based on a binomial distribution - which assumes that all polls are independent of one another, which theoretically they should be - it's realllllllllllllly unlikely. Specifically, the odds are 1 in 9.5 trillion against at least this many polls showing such a close margin.

The problems are most acute in Wisconsin, where there have been major polling errors in the past and pollsters seem terrified of going out on a limb. There, 33 of 36 polls - more than 90 percent - have had the race within 2.5 points. In theory, there's just a 1 in 2.8 million chance that so many polls would show the Badger State so close.

@#23 ... Lol! Obama, McCain and Sarah Palin all went on SNL. ...

Also... fmr Pres Ford, fmr Pres HW Bush, Bob Dole, fmr VP Gore, fmr Pres Trump, fmr Pres Obama, etc.

Kyle Garner
@KyleGarnerMO

My biggest takeaway from the Iowa poll: women 65+, the ones who lived in America before Roe, before women could even have their own bank accounts, know exactly what Trump and Republicans are promising. They know the stakes and they're going 2:1 for Harris.

Trump on SNL:

2nd appearance
S41.E4
Donald Trump/Sia (2015)
Taran Killam, Donald Trump, and Darrell Hammond during the monologue on November 7, 2015
www.imdb.com

www.youtube.com

IF, and it is an enormous IF, Harris is leading Trump in Iowa then this election is going to be an absolute blow-out. Almost Reaganesque.

Trump on SNL

1st appearance
S29.E16
Cast & crew
Donald Trump/Toots and the Maytals
www.imdb.com

www.youtube.com

www.onesnladay.com

You do know that Trump was a reality TV star, right? And that he appeared several times on SNL (see above posts fo links).

Four days before the election and----------- Donnie is showing the world what he'd like to do to Arnold Palmer's huge crank.

@#34 ... Four days before the election and----------- Donnie is showing the world what he'd like to do to Arnold Palmer's huge crank. ...

OK, I will state it outright.

Fmr Pres Trump seems to be in favor (so in favor that he gestures it publicly) of man-on-man sexual acts?

Jim Carroll Band - City Drops into the Night (1980)
The Jim Carroll Band
www.youtube.com

Lyrics excerpt ...

genius.com

...
It's when Billy's whores are workin'
They're workin' with the skeleton crew
It's when the sky over Jersey
That sky starts to drain from view
It's when my woman pawns her voice so
So she can make her old excuses sound new

But I just want one clue

'Cause when the city drops into the night
Before the darkness there's one moment of light
When everything seems clear
The other side, it seems so near
What seemed wrong?
I think it's gonna be just about right
Before the city drops, the city drops
Into the night ...

There's her base. Drunken, drugged up Gen Z losers and low hanging fruit that vote.

#19 | Posted by gracieamazed

Living in the past. People you're talking about have better things to do on Saturday night than watch television. Always have.

The key now is replays and shares from YouTube. Lots more effective. And you have no idea who watches it. Probably wouldn't help you.

#19

Fat stupid white idiot ----- slobbering on microphones are MAGA.

SAD!

Ann Selzer's polls are probably the most credible of those publicly released. No agenda, no one paying for it or a result.

And she's been within a point in every poll of Iowa in nearly every election.

This is a big deal because it shows - yet again - women are PO'd, dislike Trump, and will crawl over glass to vote for VP Harris.

Surprising but possible. It wasn't all that long ago when Obama won Iowa twice by large margins.

The "Silent/Moral Majority" seems to have a problem with voting for an adjudicated rapist and convicted felon.

Republicans, remember: You asked for this. Given the choice between a dozen solid conservatives and one Clinton-supporting con artist and game-show host, you chose the con artist. You chose him freely. Nobody made you do it.

E. Rosalie
@Info_Rosalie
I see the takes saying that the abortion ban explains Iowa, and I agree it does partially. August 2024 is the first total ban in decades. But what else happened that could move even people who wanted a ban?

I'll tell you"Iowa has been unable to recruit OBGYNs. In the last few months, areas that previously had OBGYNs don't.

x.com

"Look, it's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court majority wrote the following--and with all due respect, Justices--'Women are not without electoral or political power.' You're about to realize just how much you were right about that."

- Biden SOTU, March 2024.

Donnie Demento is panicking.

www.rawstory.com

Re 42

THIS!

And for Dingaling ... .

Maybe they should have thought of THIS 16 years again when they had the chance.

"Nobody made you do it!"

It might be time to stage another fake assassination.

God, I hope so:

From Letters from an American:

Yesterday, in Time magazine, Eric Cortellessa explained that the electoral strategy of the Trump campaign was to get men who don't usually vote, particularly young ones, to turn out for Trump. If they could do that, and at the same time hold steady the support of white women, Trump could win the election. So Trump has focused on podcasts followed by young men and on imitating the patterns of professional wrestling performances. . . .

Rather than keeping women in his camp, Trump's strategy of reaching out to his base to turn out low-propensity voters, especially young men, has alienated them. That alienation has come on top of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that recognized the constitutional right to abortion.

Early voting in Pennsylvania showed that women sent in 56% of the early ballots, compared to 43% for men. Seniors--people who remember a time before Roe v. Wade--also showed a significant split. Although the parties had similar numbers of registrants, nearly 59% of those over 65 voting early were Democrats. That pattern holds across all the battleground states: women's early voting outpaces men's by about 10 points. While those numbers are certainly not definitive--no one knows how these people voted, and much could change over the next few days--the enthusiasm of those two groups was notable....

In Flagstaff, Arizona, today, Democratic presidential candidate and Minnesota governor Tim Walz told a crowd: "I kind of have a feeling that women all across this country, from every walk of life, from either party, are going to send a loud and clear message to Donald Trump next Tuesday, November 5, whether he likes it or not."

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com

Turning the page is within our grasp but only on one condidtion, Vote, vote, vote!:

Rex Huppke
@RexHuppke
I fear confidence, and so should everybody else. Election Day turnout needs to be massive, and no one should assume this thing can't still go either way, because it absolutely can.

#43

I think it's become rather clear that Trump's play for the bro-vote has cost him dearly amongst both women and seniors, especially due to his close relationship with both Putin and avowed white supremacists - as he's made 'whiteness' the central part of his own life story.

Women are the first Americans to have a constitutional right taken away from them by the SCOTUS and the results have been more catastrophic for women's' healthcare provision involving reproductive services than previously imagined.

And senior women lived in the pre-Roe world, and have personal memories of stories and anecdotes from those days who do not want to see life returned to where women do not have complete autonomy over their own health and well being.

The coalition formed around support for Kamala Harris - against the unfitness of Donald Trump - is unprecedented in modern American political history.

Yeah ... Early voting data doesn't back this up ...

Above should be attributed to #48, not #43 but both fit the sentiment.

Yeah ... Early voting data doesn't back this up ...

#51 | POSTED BY BLUEWAFFLES

Well except this data:

Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump's 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll's 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year's campaign.

The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared with the previous Iowa Poll, in September, which found a narrow edge for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump to 43% for Harris.

And remember Harris has only been campaigning for 3 months and Trumpy has been campaigning for 24 years.

That should tell you something about her strength as a candidate.

Lmao okay Donner ...

#54 | POSTED BY BLUEWAFFLES

Yeah. It was right there in the article.

But that's assuming you can read, and understand what you read, of course.

June: DMR poll has Trump +18 vs. Biden in Iowa

July 29: Iowa's six-week abortion ban goes into effect with intense controversy and news coverage

September 22: DMR poll shows 59-37% opposition to new abortion law " 69% among women. Also shows Trump lead over Harris at just 47-43%

All fall: Saturation ad spending and campaigning on abortion by Dem candidates in the state's two toss-up House races

Now: Final DMR poll has massive gender gap pushing Harris into 47-44% lead

~Steve Kornacki ~

Sweet Potato Hitler is going to get schlonged by millions of pissed off women.

Yeah but as we have been just told. The early voting data (that you just posted) doesn't back that up.

Over on Earth2.

The poll showing Kamala's lead fits with Iowa early voting data.

Feds better put the boot on Trump's plane. He's a flaming flight risk at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in some foreign clime come the morning of Nov. 6. His minions can carry on all his nonsense without him.

#31 | Posted by moder8 at 2024-11-02 09:48 PM

I've added your prediction here, moder8.

-------- goal isn't to win electorally.

His goal is to throw up enough smoke to steal the election.

She leads in Iowa?

This is so premature.

The election isn't until Tuesday.

The majority of republicans vote on voting day.

She better have an unbeatable lead currently for these chickens you're counting.

No surprise here. She will also win GA, NC, NV, PA, WI, MI. As I have said, not even close. Two more days to go.

DonOLD like Selzer before he suddenly doesn't:

Taylor Popielarz
@TaylorPopielarz
As Trump and his campaign criticize Iowa pollster @jaselzer, I dug through my archives and found Trump saying this last December:

"...they have a great pollster, actually, a very powerful pollster, very good, talented pollster. Of course, if my numbers were bad, I wouldn't be saying that. I'd say, They have a terrible pollster. She doesn't know' " she, it's a she " 'she doesn't know what she's doing.' But no, she's very good."

x.com

Hey Rcade ... you might wanna check the Wisconsin early voting data ;D

Hey Rcade ... you might wanna check the Wisconsin early voting data ;D
#65 | Posted by Bluewaffles

Here's what I found on a quick search:

WISCONSIN - EARLY VOTING RESULTS
includes mail-in (40%) & early in person (60%)

" Democrat: 455,167
" Republican: 334,682
Other: 548,878

x.com

Early voting turnout stats show:
MI 47%Dem - 42%Rep - 11% other
WI 41% Dem - 35% Rep - 24% other
PA 58% Dem - 32% Rep - 10% other

So, if this is accurate it shows some solid data on Rep. crossover and independents breaking for Harris.

x.com

She may very well take North Carolina too, up 2% in the last poll of NC (NYT/Sienna)

Incorrect Gal. www.l2-data.com

Incorrect Gal. www.l2-data.com
#68 | Posted by Bluewaffles

They literally just updated the data while I was looking at it. When I went first went to the site, the data was as of some time on 11/1/2024. Now it is:

Early Ballots Returned (or Person voted early in person) data as of 6:31 pm on 11/3/2024

It looks like Ds and Rs are basically tie in the early vote. And Ds have a slight advantage in the All category.

$69 Oh, sorry, that was the Nationwide category I was looking at not WI.

WI data is from: Early Ballots Returned (or Person voted early in person) data as of 10:43 am on 11/1/2024

Maybe they'll update it soon.

I follow this data guy for PA polls, who I think is pretty good, and this is his PA data from earlier today:

Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
... Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 21

" 1,777,019 votes cast

" DEM: 990,189 - 82.5% returned
" GOP: 583,791 - 81.6% returned
IND: 203,039 - 72.0% returned

VBM Splits: " 55.7% / " 32.9% / 11.4%

Ballot Edge: "+406,398
" Return Edge: "+0.9

x.com

His vote totals and VBM percentages track pretty closely to the data from your site updated a few hours later:

www.l2-data.com

Meanwhile Fat Donnie Loser plays "Where's -----"

Watch, Dotard will dispatch Elmo to Iowa to get a GOTV program up and running in three days, lol. The lack of GOTV programs will damage Dotard in EVERY close, and even moderately close states. Dems have lots of volunteers, even in Iowa who are knocking doors and getting voters out. Almost 100% of absentee ballots have been returned, thats pretty remarkable.

After he loses in a landslide on Tuesday I think there is NO chance he shows up for sentencing on November 26th. He'll have attempted to flee before then.

yeah.....good luck with that....

--"When this dropped over the weekend, all you could do was laugh. In Iowa, a ruby-red state, Kamala Harris leapfrogged Donald Trump in the waning days of the 2024 election. That's like saying Florida is in play or Montana"it's simply not true. It was rightly criticized, as we would have seen a ramp-up to the flip months ago. You don't go from Trump+18 to Kamala +3"we'd see that in the polling over the summer. There's no ambush here. Many were wondering if the poll by Ann Selzer, who is credible, isn't being skewed by nonresponse bias.

When pressed about the crosstabs, Selzer didn't know what they were, or at the very least, couldn't read the breakdown when asked about it on Mark Halperin's show:

She's saying Republicans are shifting further to left than independents.

Regardless, it's time to vote. The only poll that matters now is the one on Election Day.

#76 | Posted by shrimptacodan

shrimptacodan's November 5th challenge (is she up to it?)

If Iowa is this close I have to believe #Roevember is playing a role.

#4 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-02 08:10 PM | Reply

The biggest gap is women OVER 65 where Harris leads 63% to 28%.

Apparently not everyone is happy Roe was overturned by justices perjurers.

Re 76

Lie baby lie ... make your mother cry!

You're still like a baby
You cry like a baby
You lie like a baby
You want your mommy like a baby

Boo hoo ... don't cry baby!

Vote!

*One more day!

*Offer not valid to Maga Riggers

RICHARD SPENCER ENDORSES KAMALA HARRIS.

Richard Spencer, who has been credited with creating the term "alt-right," publicly endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats down the ballot in Montana on Friday night.

www.allsides.com

#81

So glad you are keeping informed... sort of informed.

"Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side."

Spencer, who was described by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) as a "suit-and-tie version of the white supremacists of old, a kind of professional racist in khakis," added that "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country."

Spencer clarified he is not affiliated with any political party.

In the interview with Newsweek on Saturday, he specifically cited the bipartisan border bill that Republicans shot down earlier this year as an example. "If you don't want things to get better, then you're sort of evil," he said.

Spencer announced his endorsement of Harris in an almost 12-minute video posted to X, saying, "This is not some kind of troll or joke; this is a sincere vote."

In the video, he discussed what voting for a candidate means to him, saying you have to consider "who best offers stability, safety, continuation, and most likely to be the best manager of the American empire."

He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos."

www.newsweek.com

Even some Nazis aren't stupid enough to put their Party over their Country.

Which is cult territory, and never ever patriotic.

Trump's once enthusiastic crowds dwindle in election's closing days

Trump has been drawing smaller crowds than normal in the past week, with many attendees leaving while he's still speaking.

In Raleigh, N.C., Monday, the first of his four rallies of the day, there were well over a thousand empty seats and no line to get in.

At his second rally in Reading, Pa., the arena appeared about half full shortly before Trump was scheduled to begin his remarks. The timing of his address was later pushed back an hour.

Trump drew several thousand people at his third event at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, but even there, the upper deck was curtained off and some seats were empty.

There have been similar scenes in the past week.

In Macon, Ga., on Sunday, Trump didn't fill the venue he was speaking at, and attendees left throughout his address.

His events in Kingston, N.C., and Lititz, Pa., Sunday likewise only drew a couple of thousand people.