This is sorta what I do for a living...but Russia had little to lose globally by invading Ukraine. Russia doesn't produce anything. Russia is not integrated in the global marketplace.

If Russia were to disappear from the face of the planet tomorrow, impact on the markets would be negligible.

That's not true with China. They are an integral part of the global marketplace. And they benefit immensely from that standing.

Maybe they would be willing to give it all away for the sake of capturing Taiwan...become another Russia or North Korea...but doing so seems pretty illogical to me.

That said, China has a really good conventional military force. They have nukes, but unlike Russia, their philosophy has been that nukes are intended for the purpose of national survival, whereas the Russians view nukes as a means to offset their conventional weaknesses.

A nuclear war with anyone is highly unlikely, but a nuclear war with Beijing is almost beyond reason, unless the US decided to invade China.

Russia on the other hand, while unlikely, is far more likely to use nukes because A) they want to challenge the west, B) they are severely overmatched by the west conventionally, and C) they think that Russia is a special country with special birthrights.

A challenge to any of these Russian assumptions might be met with a nuclear response because they have nothing else. Kinda like North Korea.

"Do Israel next!"

Sure.

Like Russia, I think the impact on global markets would be negligible if Israel were defeated by the Islamic Resistance.

I don't think I have anything in my home that's tagged as "made in Israel."

Do you?

That said, Gaza could disappear altogether. I'm not sure the needle on the NASDAQ or DJIA would move at all.