Saturday, November 02, 2024

About 77 hours left: What's your prediction?

With about 77 hours left before the first election polls close (Tuesday, November 5, 2024, 7:00pm Eastern Time), what do you think will happen that night? If you didn't take our reader survey yesterday, please do it today. We would like to get a good idea of who our 65,000+ readers are and also see if they can call the swing states and Senate elections better than the pollsters. We will try to post the results Tuesday, so you need to "vote" today. As usual, thanks for stopping by and do tell your friends about the site.

Comments

Here's the direct link to the survey

#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:08 PM

We already have some predictions.

First prediction:

My prediction.

Trump will win the popular vote, Kamala will win the Electoral Vote.

That will really spice things up.

#78 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-10-24 06:30 PM

#2 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:08 PM

Second prediction:

Agreed

Trumpy wins popular vote, Harris will win the Election.

#21 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-10-26 02:15 PM

#3 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:08 PM

Third prediction:

Bill was over +5 going in too.

Only 1 will be right. Stock market or EC predictor, Harris isn't breaking +5 and it's trending the other way.

#90 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-10-20 07:07 AM

#4 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:09 PM

Fourth prediction (actually, more a hope):

I hope it drags on for months.

Watching you ---- your pants every single day over every news item related to it is going to be more fun than I can imagine.

you are guaranteed to provide and equal amount of entertainment for me as Boaz will, Boazboy.

#51 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-02 01:28 PM

#5 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:09 PM

Fifth prediction:

Kamala's support is much higher than the polls indicate.

#14 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-10-24 07:33 PM

#6 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:09 PM

Sixth prediction:

nov 5

DJT declared potus by 11 EST

#38 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-10-13 09:49 PM

#7 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:09 PM

And, now, my prediction (as I submitted in the reader survey):

Like the elections in 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, the results of the election will be known by 11:00pm Eastern Time. - Hans

#8 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:10 PM

So, what's your prediction (and remember to also participate in in the reader survey)?

#9 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:10 PM


About 77 hours left: What's your prediction?

#10 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 02:13 PM

I predict that Trump will declare fraud, even if he wins.

#11 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-02 02:23 PM

He will declare himself the winner, no matter the vote or EC outcome.

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-02 02:37 PM

What happened to the 100% absolute certainty exhibited by the Trumpanzees?

They were just so sure that the Kumquat Pol Pot would wipe the floor with, first, Joe Biden, and then, Kamala Harris.

Well, what happened to that?

About 77 hours left: What's your prediction?

#13 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 03:10 PM

A new entry:

My prediction?

A -------- of dramaqueens are going to volunteer to make asses out of themselves on the internet.

that's my prediction.

#7 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-02 03:49 PM

About 77 hours left: What's your prediction?

#14 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 03:56 PM

My prediction?

Blue Tsu. Harris wins, Dems retake the House, and surprisingly, hang on to the Senate.

#15 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-02 05:31 PM

The phrase The Dobbs Effect enters our lexicon.

#16 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-02 05:33 PM

A new addition:

Just three days until Harris wipes the floors with the traitor. Will be a LANDSLIDE ... TONS of real republicans are voting for her, DEM enthusiasm is off the charts, higher than 2008. His rallies lately have been scattered, sometimes 1/3 empty. Also, she has so many endorsements while he has few very small endowments. The writing has been on the wall for three months and no woman, no real woman, will vote for a rapist nor a man who took their rights away. They will not vote for a man who has zero empathy. A man who lies with every breath. A man who is trying to destroy the USA from within. It's easy math here. How the toxic masculinity bros even think sir Cheeto has a chance is beyond me, but I am educated and my specialty is MATH. Three days to the massive blue tsunami.

#12 | Posted by NOTGOINGBACK at 2024-11-02 05:45 PM

#17 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 05:51 PM

"It's an oversight that suggests polls may have shifted from underestimating Republican support to underestimating Democratic support.

The billion-dollar question is where, exactly, these polls are wrong, and will it ultimately affect the Electoral College outcome.

If the Harris voters that polls are missing live in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, the polling in those states may be as misleading as in 2016 and 2020."

www.politico.com

#18 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-02 05:58 PM

Same prediction: VP Harris will win with comfortable margins.

#19 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-11-02 06:30 PM

Harris will take the blue wall giving her 270. This is becoming clear already. But I also think she takes South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia.

Trump will take AZ, which is vying to dethrone Florida as the belly-aching boomer capital of the US. Plus the brain damage from the obscene heat.

Dems easily take the House.

The Senate is tied.

#20 | Posted by horstngraben at 2024-11-02 06:32 PM

The polls are always wrong. They are never about the number of votes. They are about corporate media making lots of money maintaining artificially high levels of interest by promoting false numbers to make it seem much closer than it is. I think all this number-mongering is pure --------.

#21 | Posted by moder8 at 2024-11-02 06:35 PM

#18 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-02 05:58 PM | Reply | Flag: Amazingly Newsworthy

Thank you for posting that, Corky.

About 77 hours left: What's your prediction?

#22 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 06:36 PM

#12 | Posted by NOTGOINGBACK

Trump had a rally Friday night in Macomb County in suburban Detroit and home of the "Reagan Democrats." It didn't portend well for his chances in Michigan.

The college gym where he held his rally holds 3500 at full capacity. He drew only 1000. This in a county with 500,000 registered voters.

#23 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-11-02 06:46 PM

#23 | Posted by AmericanUnity at 2024-11-02 06:46 PM | Reply | Flag: Insightful

#24 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 06:49 PM

Stick a fork in him, he's done.

The only 20-24 the orange menace is gonna win is number of years in prison.

He got his NY sentencing put off until after the election. When he's already lost, judge Merchan is not going to hold back. It won't be a lot of prison time there, maybe even as little as a year or two, but I don't think he gets away with just a fine.

Then the rest of the trials hit. And by the time they're all done, it'll be well over an effective life sentence at his age.

#25 | Posted by DarkVader at 2024-11-02 07:17 PM

Trump Force One is warming up on the runway with flight plans for Moscow.

Or Israel or NK or Dubai.

Possibly Transylvania.

#26 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-02 07:26 PM

Is Donald Trump's private jet really crappy' and dilapidated'? The former president's plane, dubbed Trump Force One, was bought from Microsoft's Paul Allen after serving a defunct Mexican airline

Business Insider
Oct 28 , 2024

www.scmp.com

#27 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-02 07:49 PM

Kamala Harris on SNL tonight

#28 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-02 08:39 PM

Lots of MAGAT tears, some ER visits, a fat slobbering shuffling old ---- whining about "rigged" this or that, millions of real Americans celebrating like it's 1945.

#29 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-11-02 11:06 PM

Lots of MAGAT tears, some ER visits, a fat slobbering shuffling old ---- whining about "rigged" this or that, millions of real Americans celebrating like it's 1945.

#30 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-11-02 11:06 PM

The only 20-24 the orange menace is gonna win is number of years in prison.

DARKVADER

First sentencing for 34 felony counts is November 26th.

If Trump loses the election, I can imagine the judge will feel free to give him time if he was previously so inclined.

#31 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-11-03 12:57 AM

#23 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY

PS - Macomb County is predominantly white. Very few minorities.

That Trump could only draw 1000 in a county with 500k registered voters says a whole lot about his support in Michigan in general.

#32 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-11-03 01:10 AM

According to articles I have read, something like 40% of voters have already cast their ballots. Shouldn't we have some idea of what these results look like? Is there something that keeps the early results from being released.

#33 | Posted by madbomber at 2024-11-03 04:59 AM

According to articles I have read, something like 40% of voters have already cast their ballots. Shouldn't we have some idea of what these results look like? Is there something that keeps the early results from being released.
#33 | Posted by madbomber

The rules vary on processing and counting early ballots:
When states can begin processing and counting absentee/mail-in ballots, 2024
ballotpedia.org

But you can see some numbers here breaking down early votes by state, party, and sex: www.nbcnews.com

Sex is a huge factor since females lead substantially in early voting in most swing states (~10% difference) and Harris leads 7-10% with females.

#34 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-03 07:23 AM

I predict that Trumpy will declare victory early. He will NOT concede when he loses and he will file multiple lawsuits to try to throw the elections into chaos and prevent us knowing who won for weeks.

Harris will win the popular vote and the electoral college.

I do not think we will know who won by 11pm. Or for several days or even weeks.

I predict Maga violence at several locations (Pennsylvania might get some revenge and retribution) and more Trump hateful posts and lies and calls for fighting and "TAKING BACK OUR COUNTRY" and a lot of confederate flags.

I predict more of the same ---- from Trumpy and his hateful supporters. Because they don't give a ---- how they win or even what it means if they did. Only that they do win so they can own the libs and get some of that sweet sweet revenge and retribution.

We are at a Turning Point in American history.

Choose carefully America!

#35 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-11-03 10:02 AM

"I do not think we will know who won by 11pm. Or for several days or even weeks."

And should this occur it will make Beverly very very happy!!

I hope it drags on for months.

#36 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-11-03 10:14 AM

Seen on the interwebs:

Kamala Harris: "I got Donald to work at McDonald's."

Joe Biden: "I got him to dress up as a garbage man."

Stormy Daniels: "I got him to pick up a mic, and ... "

ROFLMBAO!!!!

#37 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-03 10:26 AM

"Is there something that keeps the early results from being released."

#33 | Posted by madbomber

Yeah, there is.

It is called state legislative mandate (or, state law).

Why do stupid people actually demonstrate just how stupid they really are?

(Rhetorical question, no answer expected.)

#38 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 10:39 AM

"Seen on the interwebs:

Kamala Harris: "I got Donald to work at McDonald's."
Joe Biden: "I got him to dress up as a garbage man."

Stormy Daniels: "I got him to pick up a mic, and ... "

ROFLMBAO!!!! -

#37 | Posted by TonyRoma at 2024-11-03 10:26 AM | Reply | Flag: One of the funniest things I read about this past week!!!

Bravo, TonyRoma!

You win the interwebs award for the week!

#39 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 10:43 AM

Husband: Why are you crying?

Shannon Watts: Ann Selzer.

Him: Who's that? What did she do to you?

#40 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 10:49 AM

WTAF happened to the 100% absolute certainty from the supporters of the Kumquat Pol Pot?

Why aren't they all over the Retort, bragging about how Trump will win by 11:00pm on Tuesday night?

Why aren't they all over the Retort, taunting Harris supporters how they'll be crying come Wednesday morning?

Just WTAF is their 100% certainty? ? ? ?*

* other than on the Nooner, of course, where they're drooling all over themselves, that is.

#41 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 10:52 AM

What's your favorite nickname for the king of nicknames, Donald Trump?

Feel free to chose from here, or add your own favorite:

Sweet Potato Hitler
Kumquat Pol Pot
Mango Mussolini
Dumb Donald
Convicted Crook Donald Trump
Lying Donald
Delusional Donald
Dangerous Donald
Disgusting Donald
Don Whoreleon
Napoleon Bone-Aspur
R. Smelly
Fiberace
Commander-In-Thief
Nostra-Dumbass
El Pork-Choppo
MAGA Theresa
All Caps-Tain Kangaroo
Rip One Van Winkle
Count Flatula
Founding Farter
---------
Teddy Dozevelt
Gaseous Clay
Dopey McGropey
Lepre-Con Man
Al Ca-Porn
Julius Squeezer
The ----- of the Deal
His Flatulency
Mayor McCutTheCheese
Groper Cleveland
Sleepy Don-Zales
Nelson Tandela
Burger Jean King
Donny Nappleseed
Liger Woods
Unhappy Gilmore
Greedy McGolfy
Yabba Dabba Doofus
His MAGA-Sty
Genghis Don
Donnie D Cups
Donye West
Donald Duck the Draft
Kim Don Un
The Notorious P.I.G.
Hair Mussolini
Con-Mander-In-Chief
The Dotard
Our Fondling Father
Maroon 45
The Legend of Bragger Vance
Mar-a-Cloggo
The Tan of La Mancha
Butch Casserole
Trumpelstiltskin
MAGATHA Christie
Grab-Ass Grandpa
Orange Julius Caesar
Hungry Hungry Hypocrite
Dictator Tot
Quid Pro Combover
The Lock-Her-Up-Ness Monster
General Lie-Senhower
Alexander Scamilton
Yelvis
Jabba The Pizza Hut
Pumpkin McPornhumper

#42 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 11:03 AM

Agolf -------.

#43 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-11-03 11:08 AM

Tweety Amin

#44 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-11-03 11:09 AM

A new entry:

This election is not going to be as close as the horserace the capitalist media want.

At this point I'll be surprised if we don't know Kamala will be the next president by the end of Tuesday night.

#1 | Posted by DarkVader at 2024-11-03 10:29 AM

#45 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 11:29 AM

" Harris will take the blue wall giving her 270. This is becoming clear already. But I also think she takes South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia."

I'm sure you meant North Carolina.

I love South Carolina, but there's no way in heaven, hell, or anywhere in between SC will turn blue.

And as for North Carolina? THANK YOU MR. ROBINSON!

#46 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-03 11:35 AM

Please be sure to add your voice to this voter survey.

It would be great to have the denizens of the Retort's opinions added.*

* Except, of course, those who have me plonked here on the Retort.

Too bad their voices won't be registered because, well, they have willingly shoved their heads into the sand and can't see this!

C'est la vie

#47 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 11:39 AM

"This election is not going to be as close as the horserace the capitalist media want."

Everyone telling you it's a horse race has a vested interest in you believing it's a horse race.

#48 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-03 11:40 AM

Another entry:

IF, and it is an enormous IF, Harris is leading Trump in Iowa then this election is going to be an absolute blow-out. Almost Reaganesque.

#31 | Posted by moder8 at 2024-11-02 09:48 PM

#49 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 11:48 AM

48

That's exactly right.

What's the most disappointing is that in an effort to keep it in horse race, many in the media, including social media, will knowingly prop up lies and pass them along.

Rather than standing for democracy they stand for ratings.

#50 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-03 12:17 PM

www.youtube.com

Me, this morning.

#51 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-03 12:21 PM

"This election is not going to be as close as the horserace the capitalist media want." Everyone telling you it's a horse race has a vested interest in you believing it's a horse race.
#48 | Posted by Danforth

48
That's exactly right. What's the most disappointing is that in an effort to keep it in horse race, many in the media, including social media, will knowingly prop up lies and pass them along. Rather than standing for democracy they stand for ratings.
#50 | Posted by eberly

You guys sleep through 2016 and 2020? When the electoral college was decided by ~45,000 - 70,000 votes each time?

There are no sure things in this country when half of us support a rapist who was just convicted of 34 felonies.

#52 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-03 01:04 PM

52

I'm not saying it won't be that close. Just that no matter what, the media needs it that close.

#53 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-03 01:08 PM

YES. The media needs a horserace for ratings.

#54 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2024-11-03 01:22 PM

Harris wins the Election, Trump wins the popular vote.

#55 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-11-03 01:39 PM


Shouldn't we have some idea of what these results look like? Is there something that keeps the early results from being released.

#33 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER

Only in the theoretical, Laws appear keep the results from being released.

Why would you vote if you know the outcome?

#56 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-11-03 01:40 PM

Trump wins the popular vote.

Trump is losing the women's vote by up to 18 points in some swing states, and women have comprised 55% of early voters. Harris also is winning over 65 voters by a smaller percentage, while these women are voting for her by a 2 to 1 margin.

There are far more women in the electorate than men, so by math alone, Trump winning a popular vote is utterly daft. You cannot win a popular majority when the two largest voting blocks in the electorate are going in favor of your opponent.

Harris will likely win the popular vote by more than 10 million votes.

#57 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-03 01:52 PM

UPDATE: If Kamala Harris has, by 11:00pm Eastern Time on Tuesday, enough states in her column equal to (or exceeding) 216 Electoral Votes, that's it.

Every single MAGAt will then be: "Game over, man. GAME OVER!"

#58 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 03:44 PM

Keep an eye on New Hampshire and Virginia early Tuesday evening (following 7:00pm Eastern Time).

#59 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-03 07:54 PM

Orange Adolf get washed away in a blue tsunami on election night.

Harris will have EC numbers somewhere between Obama's numbers in his 2 elections.

The democrats will win both houses of Congress and the whitehouse.

Many red states turn blue on Tuesday, Harris wins ALL the toss up states.

Abortion rights and Trump fatigue will be the 2 biggest factors.

Trump skips the sentencing trial on September 26th and attempts to flee the country.

#60 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-11-04 07:25 AM

Another addition:

"If you thought that was funny, just wait till tomorrow night/Wednesday morning..... It's gonna be lit."

#6 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-11-04 08:29 AM

#61 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-04 08:37 AM

#60 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-11-04 07:25 AM | Reply | Flag: Great Post!

#62 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-04 08:38 AM

But you can see some numbers here breaking down early votes by state, party, and sex: www.nbcnews.com

Sex is a huge factor since females lead substantially in early voting in most swing states (~10% difference) and Harris leads 7-10% with females.

#34 | Posted by censored

I think a big problem is the assumption that Rs leading in early voting means they're leading overall.

The way MAGA treated DeSantis and Haley supporters turned many of them off. So many that they were writing in their preferred candidate in the primaries to the tune of double-digit protest write ins.

I don't think it's a good assumption to think they've suddenly gone Trump (some likely have, but not all) as opposed to writing in someone else now or even leaving POTUS blank and only voting down ballot.

Given how razor thin the margins are, a loss of 3-5% of GOP voters to protests or flat-out Harris votes is a death knell. And that doesn't even account for new voters or independents breaking for Harris because Trump is simply repulsive.

#63 | Posted by jpw at 2024-11-04 09:52 AM

I just want to talk logic and observation for a moment. We know that Trump's national ceiling has been 47% in both his elections. We also know that voluminous anecdotal evidence exists where voters that voted for him previously are refusing to vote for him again. This includes an unprecedented amount of his own staff and appointed officials who worked for his administration, along with prominent conservative Republican politicians and even his former Vice President - things never seen before on the national stage.

We also have seen Nikki Haley garner 20% of Republican primary voters even after she dropped out of the race. The point of this setup is to theorize that Trump will certainly lose points of support from his former voters - how many, no one knows yet.

Now we also know that Trump is making inroads with men across demographics, no argument. But what is also inarguable is the fact that women make up a majority of the electorate, and vote more consistently than do men. We also know that senior voters over 65 are the most prolific and consistent voting demographic of all. On both counts, Harris has been winning both categories of these voters in the swing states that report the information. She winning the senior category because women are voting for her at a 2-1 clip over Trump, while 65+ men prefer Trump but by smaller margins.

And lastly, the spread amongst women is exceeding 10 points in reporting states, more like up to 20 points depending on the state. In PA, they are seeing more first time women voters than they ever have in history, and the disparity can only be explained by a significant number of GOP women voting for Harris as well. And nationally, the breakdown so far has been 55% for women across the board and more women will vote than men.

None of this guarantees anything until every vote is cast and counted by the close of tomorrow. But the above info can inform us about what we're seeing happen in real time as it's being reported out to us by the media. One way or another, women appear to be the determinative voting block, energized by men promising to take away their rights to control their own bodies as it regards reproductive healthcare and abortion bans.

While everyone doesn't necessarily agree about this policy or that policy difference between Harris and Trump, women can be assured that Harris will have their backs when it comes to government interfering in women's health and reproductive choices and decisions.

#64 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-04 10:27 AM

the media needs it that close.

#53 | POSTED BY EBERLY

What is this all powerful "media" you keep referring to?

Is it books magazines and newspapers?

Is it television, movies, video games, music, cell phones, various kinds of software, and the Internet?

Is it blogs, wikis, online social networking, virtual worlds, and other social media platforms?

There are all kinds of media now.

Which media is controlling the narrative?

Or is it some mysterious AI algorithms being used on us by billionaires like Elon or foreign hostile powers?

#65 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-11-04 10:40 AM

-What is this all powerful "media" you keep referring to?

everyone

print
Major networks
cable networks
social media
blogs
syndicated radio/talk radio/pod casters

I'm sure I'm leaving some out....

#66 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-04 10:42 AM

-What is this all powerful "media" you keep referring to?

let me rephrase that....anybody who sells advertising and needs ratings/larger audience.

#67 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-04 10:43 AM

I'm not sure what argument you're trying to manufacture with me here, Boazboy.

#68 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-04 11:00 AM

What is this all powerful "media" you keep referring to?

This is a pretty obtuse question.

The hostage narrative has been extremely clear since about June.

#69 | Posted by jpw at 2024-11-04 11:15 AM

This is a pretty obtuse question.

It is pretty obtuse to claim the "media" is controlling the narrative.

You need to be more specific these days as the word "media" applies to so many things. And I am pretty sure they are not all on the same page. I have sampled quite a few.

Though making money is still a primary motivator to be sure for pretty much all of them.

Beverly knows exactly what I am talking about. As he tried to clarify his statement a little.

Some do want a horse race. Definitely. Others just report what they believe s
are are the facts. Others take the facts and distort them to fit a narrative.

It really depends on which bubble you prefer to live in.

And AI algorithms will help you stay there.

#70 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-11-04 11:37 AM

-It is pretty obtuse to claim the "media" is controlling the narrative.

I don't recall mentioning anything about "controlling a narrative".

The quote from Danforth, "Everyone telling you it's a horse race has a vested interest in you believing it's a horse race" was spot on.

It's just that simple.

#71 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-04 11:55 AM

Electoral-Vote has Harris at 276 EV, but also has the REP taking the Senate 52/48. That would be a cluster but better than Trump winning AND losing the Senate. We need judges, among other things.

#72 | Posted by YAV at 2024-11-04 11:58 AM

"Others just report what they believe s
are are the facts."

Nobody is accusing everyone of being a ratings whore. It's a broad brush accusation that not everyone in the media deserves.

Is that your issue?

#73 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-04 11:58 AM

The quote from Danforth, "Everyone telling you it's a horse race has a vested interest in you believing it's a horse race" was spot on.

And yes Danforth was exactly correct.

But he didn't point to some amorphous "media". (Which would include everyone we both listed).

At least he narrowed it down some. His statement while exactly correct still doesn't narrow it down enough.

He pointed at those who have a "vested interest".

Now. If we really wanted ... We could be more specific.

Who are they?

I can start ...

Fox News
&
MSNBC
&
CNN

They all have vested interests in making it a horse race.

And now we have all these pollsters. Some who are legit and some who are actively trying to skew the poll numbers.

But they are not The Media. They are but a small part of the media. Then there is this new tactic of "online betting". Where billionaires can make you think one candidate is more favored than the other.

Again. It all depends on which bubble you prefer to live in these days.

#74 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-11-04 12:15 PM

-At least he narrowed it down some

narrowed it how? he called ratings whores ratings whores....that's it.

Alex followed with the same thing.

-But they are not The Media. They are but a small part of the media.

distinction without a difference. Personally, if you think Fox, MSNBC, and CNN are but a small part of the media (especially running up to a huge election) then I'm going to disagree with you.

But everything else you said I think is right.

#75 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-04 12:30 PM

Trump if the election honest.

#76 | Posted by MSgt at 2024-11-04 01:26 PM

"Trump if the election honest."

If, after four years and NONE of the claims actually having...you know...EVIDENCE...

...it's time to admit the folks you vote for, are absolutely fine with LYING TO YOU.

They know, they just believe you can't handle the truth.

#77 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-04 01:34 PM

"Trump if the election honest."

#76 | Posted by Msgt

Harris if the election honest.

Only people speaking the language of known conflict have now become the entire housing military.

#78 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-04 01:57 PM

"Trump if the election honest."

"If Jesus was to come down and count the votes" there would be no voter suppression or gerrymandering or fake electors or purges or anything like an electoral college.

Just everyones vote.

And Trumpy would lose that vote by a landslide.

#79 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-11-04 02:28 PM

REPOST:

For eberly (and others), who asked about my 3% of popular vote to win the Electoral College statement*:

Could Harris Lose the Popular Vote and Still Win the Electoral College?

It has been an article of faith among political operatives for years that a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by about 3 points to win the Electoral College, which tilts toward the Republicans due to the disproportionate effect of there being more medium-sized red states than there are medium-sized blue states.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, but fell short in the Electoral College. But this year, there are signs that things could be different. Is it possible that Kamala Harris could win the popular vote by a very small margin, or even lose it, and still get at least 270 electoral votes? Maybe.

* I emailed the editors of the site last week, and they posted
this article today.

#80 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-04 06:54 PM

Tomorrow's the day. Look for an additional thread

#81 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-04 09:10 PM

Just a reminder:

I called Dobbs when it came out. Never underestimate the power of pissed off women is a phrase I've heard again and again, since.

I predicted the KS and OH shocker votes on women's health rights.

I predicted a Blu Tsu before the first debate (boy was I wrong!), and again after Kamala got the...nom-ala. (We'll see if I'm right)

I warned Iowa would be in play over a month ago.

I said it was clear women would be on the forefront of this electorate. I admit I was expecting first-timers, and other women of child-bearing age.

I did NOT predict women 65+ would be a force, breaking like crazy for Harris.

Not perfect, but better than usual....

#82 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-05 12:22 AM

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