Monday, November 04, 2024

We've Been Underestimating the Scale of Women's Fury

Michelle Goldberg: Should Kamala Harris win this election, the [Iowa] poll will be part of the story of her victory. The reason for Selzer's anomalous finding is simple: women. If it's anywhere near accurate, it suggests that conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women's fury over abortion bans and their revulsion at Trump's cartoonishly macho campaign.

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Women's anger has, of course, been a catalytic force in American politics since the insult of Trump's election in 2016. It drove the Women's March and the #MeToo movement, and persuaded record numbers of Democratic women to run for office in recent cycles. Female rage was rekindled when, thanks to Trump's Supreme Court picks, we lost Roe v. Wade and women in many conservative states were stripped of control over their reproductive lives. The backlash to Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the case that ended Roe, is probably why the red wave that Republicans were expecting in 2022 never materialized. It helped Democrats win important state-level victories last year, including the re-election of Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

Some conservative men have assumed that women's outrage would fade. "As we settle back into what feels like a status quo," the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini told NPR last year, it will be "tougher to move people and to message on" abortion. Others on the right decided to lean into the gender gap, hoping to galvanize disaffected young men, including men of color, to make up for their erosion among women. "For every Karen we lose, there's a Julio and a Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement," Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida told the right-wing network Newsmax this year.

Maybe Trump's hyper-patriarchal approach will work. Among Republicans, however, you can already see a dawning suspicion that the male voters they're counting on to replace conscientious suburban women may not be wholly reliable. "The core plot of the Barbie movie was distracting men so they wouldn't vote," Gaetz wrote on X on Monday. "Don't make the Barbie movie come true."

I simply cannot give Danforth enough credit for calling this all the way back in 2022, I believe. And it's equally baffling why men refused to see that denying women equal rights to their own personal autonomy would cause a boomerang effect heretofore unseen in our elective politics. Every single one of us would not be here if not for the mother who birthed us into this world. Maybe we owe them the respect due to make their own decisions regarding their own lives and health without the input of interlopers who aren't them.

#1 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-04 05:39 PM

She knows what she's doing because she's been successful in every one of her election campaigns.

[W]hile Ms. Harris has raised more than $1 billion for her presidential bid, which has afforded her a formidable war chest, campaign officials say she has made a point to continue making stops at barber shops, music stores and bookshops.

But in a fast-paced national campaign, Ms. Harris has been better known this time around for her big, high-profile rallies. After most rallies, she goes and walks a rope line, often beelining for young children. After town-hall events, she has gone over to voters who asked her a tough question to talk face to face.

"She has been clear that she needs to look people in the eye, and not just talk about the stakes but talk about aspirations, in their own space," said Michael Tyler, the communications director for Ms. Harris's campaign. "It's part and parcel for how she's campaigned throughout her career."

#2 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-04 06:01 PM

. ... We've Been Underestimating the Scale of Women's Fury ...

I dunno.

There's been a person here who has highlighted that past underestimation.

But the question that lingers is ...

Has recent polling compensated?


And, as a sub-question ...

Are women telling the pollsters how they actually want to vote, or what they may have to say with their husbands present as the pollster asks the questions?

In a couple three days, we will know a lot more about this.



#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-04 08:03 PM

"...conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women's fury over abortion bans and their revulsion at Trump..."

NEVER underestimate the power of pissed-off women.

"I simply cannot give Danforth enough credit for calling this all the way back in 2022"

Thanks, Tony. I've been telling EVERYONE the polls have been off since Dobbs, calming a lot of nerves. My guess was confirmed by J. Ann Selzer: pollsters were using the last election's modeling, which didn't account for new voters or PO'd women.

As was pointed out by Jonathan Lemire this morning, one hugely breaking sector, educated women over 65, aren't just in Iowa. And now, Republicans will be sweating KANSAS. Why? The folks who got involved for the women's rights vote are staying involved. We might see IN turn blue by the end of the night.

#4 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-11-04 08:05 PM

Has recent polling compensated?

No. And they've overcorrected for Trump voters they fear missing after doing so in 2016 and 2020.

We might see IN turn blue by the end of the night.

I'm here and I'm not feeling that vibe - but I admit, I might be missing it. There's a former female Republican state school superintendent running for governor as a Democrat and the DNSC has been pouring money into her campaign over the last weeks as GOP tv commercials try to knock her for having supported Hillary and Bidenomics. We've got multiple battery plants going up because of IRA in dead red counties and those voters know the reason why. And knocking Hillary again when she was right about the threat of Trump leading to Roe going down? They're not reading the room, are they?

And another woman is running against the idiot AG Todd Rokita who caused all the problems for Dr. Bernard that treated the 10 year old Ohio rape victim. Nobody likes this clown, so I hope he goes too.

But Roevember is real, the numbers don't lie. And a significant number of GOP men will also vote to support the women in their lives without telling their MAGA bros. It's never over till it's over, but it's hard not to feel positive heading to bed tonight.

#5 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-04 08:56 PM

It's in our hands, ladies. "Tell me, girls, What are we gonna do?" Let's do this for previous generations of American women & girls, for ourselves and for future generations of American women & girls. We got this--if we vote, we win!:

Introducing "American Girl" --a powerful anthem for women as we stand together to reclaim our freedoms at the ballot box!

Our voices matter. It's time to defeat Trump & MAGA extremism!

#AmericanGirl #WeWontGoBack

x.com

#6 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 08:59 PM

@#5 ... No. And they've overcorrected for Trump voters they fear missing after doing so in 2016 and 2020. ...

imo, too soon to say that opinion.

#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-04 08:59 PM

@#6 ... Introducing "American Girl" --a powerful anthem for women ...

Yeah, I'm not there yet.

When I pop "American Girl" into my search engine of choice, I see articles about dolls.

Not a one about what you say.


#8 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-04 09:03 PM

imo, too soon to say that opinion.
#7 | Posted by LampLighter

Too soon, but if that Selzer Iowa poll is a harbinger of things to come as it was in 2016 and 2020, then we have good reason to hope.

#9 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 09:04 PM

Yeah, I'm not there yet.
When I pop "American Girl" into my search engine of choice, I see articles about dolls.
Not a one about what you say.
#8 | Posted by LampLighter

It's a new ad from the Seneca Project, which was just released a few days ago.

#10 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 09:07 PM

Here's there website:

Galvanize Women.
Save Democracy.
It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or Republican, the assault on women's rights transcends party lines. The threat is immediate and ongoing.

www.senecaproject.us

#11 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 09:11 PM

there = their

#12 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 09:11 PM

@#9 ... Too soon, but if that Selzer Iowa poll is a harbinger of things to come ...

I agree that the Iowa poll from a pollster that fmr Pres Trump has lauded ...

Donald Trump celebrates Iowa Poll lead as he rallies for caucus support (2023)
iowacapitaldispatch.com

Yeah, so let's wait until we see the ballot results.

#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-04 09:15 PM

@#11 ... It's a new ad from the Seneca Project, ...

So not yet mainstream?

And fwiw...

Galvanize Women. Save Democracy
www.senecaproject.us

... It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or Republican, the assault on women's rights transcends party lines. The threat is immediate and ongoing. ...

Yeah I do not necessarily disagree with what that site espouses.

I still remain to be convinced that the polls are wrong.

#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-04 09:21 PM

My daughter will be graduating college this year. I, like most fathers, could not be prouder. She is a bright, hardworking, confident woman just starting her life.

I am devoted to her.

I raised her to believe in herself and that I will, until my last breath, have her back in whatever she does.

I love my daughter unconditionally.

I believe my daughter can, and will, achieve whatever she sets her mind to.

My daughter will have every option open to her that is within my power to provide.

And if my daughter needs to make a reproductive choice, it will be hers and I will be there to support her no matter what she chooses.

I cannot imagine how any father could think differently about their daughter. The child they held at their birth, that they taught to walk and talk, that gave them hugs and kisses before bedtime, that simply existed. There is a special bond between a father and daughter.

I have zero respect for any father who has held their infant daughter who would condemn that child to a future without choice.

Your chief duty is to protect them. And that includes protecting them from zealots who view them as less than men.

I have no respect for any father who does not.

And may you NEVER have to face losing your daughter to laws that prevent her from having basic healthcare.

#15 | Posted by truthhurts at 2024-11-04 09:24 PM

Yeah, so let's wait until we see the ballot results.

We're already seeing ballot results. The Iowa poll is based on votes already placed as well as intentions. Of those women over 65 who've already voted, Harris is getting 2 - 1, and leads Trump when combined with men. And there's a 28 point gap with independent women and a 20 point gap with women overall.

+65 men are +2 towards Harris and Trump's overall advantage with men fell from 27 to 14.

www.desmoinesregister.com

#16 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-04 09:27 PM

Perspective:

How America's First Woman Vice President Stepped Up

Win or lose, I think by the time exit polls come in this week, there will be real cause to question the poll-driven narrative we've been fed since February. Indeed, that's already happening as Black and Hispanic and young voters are moving to Kamala Harris in recent polls, which is precisely what people skeptical of early polls said would happen months ago.

All this time, pollsters kept contorting their polls for fear of missing Trump voters.

Until Ann Selzer came along and told us what pollsters should have recognized from the start: Women vote. And this year, women will vote for a woman to be the first woman President.

Symbolically, Kamala Harris went to East Lansing last night and refused to even speak of Donald Trump.

Turn the page.

This thing is not over. Harris' thousands of volunteers have to get out every vote tomorrow. A flood of bros might come to the polls tomorrow and make that effort meaningless. Harris lawyers have to fight to count every vote " and keep fighting all the way to January if Trump attempts to cheat again.

This thing is not over.

But holy hell, Kamala Harris and her entire team stepped up.

www.emptywheel.net

#17 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 09:52 PM

@#16 .. The Iowa poll is based on votes already placed as well as intentions. ...

Please ....

Take a step back, and breath deeply.

The article you cite does not appear to show the election results I asked for.

I did not see it reporting on the early voting results. (please correct me if I misread the article)

It shows poll results.

The actual election results may be a day or two away ...


At that point, let's return to this discussion.

#18 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-04 10:01 PM

#15 | Posted by truthhurts

For you:

x.com

#19 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 10:13 PM

I did not see it reporting on the early voting results. (please correct me if I misread the article)

You did misread it or you missed this:

The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
I wouldn't have said what I did if I hadn't read it myself. And if you're further interested, there was a link in the story to the pollster's methodology in compiling the information.

www.desmoinesregister.com

#20 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-04 10:39 PM

Barack Obama
@BarackObama

If you're still on the fence about voting in this election, think about what really matters--about the values we were taught, the kind of country we want to be, and how this is a moment when your vote really does count.

Your vote could determine the fate of our republic--the world that our children and grandchildren will inherit. It's an awesome responsibility. But what an extraordinary privilege it is to live in a democracy that gives each of us the opportunity to make our voices heard.

x.com

#21 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 10:42 PM

Just a reminder that while DonOLD outsourced his ground game to Leon, Democrats are leaving it all on the field, video at link:

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
@AOC

Every block.
Every door.
Every minute.
Until we win.

Hello from Reading, PA!

x.com

#22 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 10:47 PM

Like I said, video at link:

Gabrielle Giffords
@GabbyGiffords

After I was shot, I had to relearn how to talk one word at a time.

Today, I still struggle to speak but I have not lost my voice"and I'm using it to urge all Americans to vote for @KamalaHarris and @Tim_Walz tomorrow.

x.com

Mr. I Alone Can Fix It is a fool. I pray to God that after this election is over the malignant narcissist who has been trying to destroy this country will be given the rebuke by the American people he so richly deserves. Time will tell.

#23 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-04 10:52 PM

Receipts at link:

Shannon Watts
@shannonrwatts
This is their closing argument in the final days of the campaign: Women are whores and trash who should be beaten and jailed.

These men HATE women.

x.com

#24 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-11-05 12:03 AM

24

"I'm sorry....I don't click on those links.."

-The current alias Lamplighter

#25 | Posted by eberly at 2024-11-05 12:06 AM

@#20 ... You did misread it or you missed this: ...

I went to that site.

When I was on that page, I searched for 808.

Nothing appeared.

Maybe this is the link you intended?
www.desmoinesregister.com

... The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ...

Yeah, still looks to me like projecting from early polling


#26 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-05 12:18 AM

@#25 ... "I'm sorry....I don't click on those links.." ...

Does your current alias click on random links?

Especially now, random x.com links?


#27 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-05 12:19 AM

Maybe this is the link you intended?

That's the same link I posted in #16 where you stated you couldn't find the information. The blockquoted paragraph in #20 was from that same link, not from the one under the #20 post.

I offered you an additional link that outlined the polling methodology underneath my response. Sorry if I confused you.

#28 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-05 12:23 AM

Women 65 and over remember life before Roe and now what it's like for their daughters and granddaughters after Dobbs.

They are P1SSED!

#29 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-11-05 12:27 AM

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