Michelle Goldberg: Should Kamala Harris win this election, the [Iowa] poll will be part of the story of her victory. The reason for Selzer's anomalous finding is simple: women. If it's anywhere near accurate, it suggests that conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women's fury over abortion bans and their revulsion at Trump's cartoonishly macho campaign.
@#9 ... Too soon, but if that Selzer Iowa poll is a harbinger of things to come ...
I agree that the Iowa poll from a pollster that fmr Pres Trump has lauded ...
Donald Trump celebrates Iowa Poll lead as he rallies for caucus support (2023)
iowacapitaldispatch.com
Yeah, so let's wait until we see the ballot results.
@#11 ... It's a new ad from the Seneca Project, ...
So not yet mainstream?
And fwiw...
Galvanize Women. Save Democracy
www.senecaproject.us
... It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or Republican, the assault on women's rights transcends party lines. The threat is immediate and ongoing. ...
Yeah I do not necessarily disagree with what that site espouses.
I still remain to be convinced that the polls are wrong.
Perspective:
How America's First Woman Vice President Stepped Upwww.emptywheel.net
Win or lose, I think by the time exit polls come in this week, there will be real cause to question the poll-driven narrative we've been fed since February. Indeed, that's already happening as Black and Hispanic and young voters are moving to Kamala Harris in recent polls, which is precisely what people skeptical of early polls said would happen months ago.
All this time, pollsters kept contorting their polls for fear of missing Trump voters.
Until Ann Selzer came along and told us what pollsters should have recognized from the start: Women vote. And this year, women will vote for a woman to be the first woman President.
Symbolically, Kamala Harris went to East Lansing last night and refused to even speak of Donald Trump.
Turn the page.
This thing is not over. Harris' thousands of volunteers have to get out every vote tomorrow. A flood of bros might come to the polls tomorrow and make that effort meaningless. Harris lawyers have to fight to count every vote " and keep fighting all the way to January if Trump attempts to cheat again.
This thing is not over.
But holy hell, Kamala Harris and her entire team stepped up.
@#20 ... You did misread it or you missed this: ...
I went to that site.
When I was on that page, I searched for 808.
Nothing appeared.
Maybe this is the link you intended?
www.desmoinesregister.com
... The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ...
Yeah, still looks to me like projecting from early polling
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