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Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade and could be deterred by a counter build-up of armed forces, Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said on Tuesday.

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... A growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia to countries along the eastern flank of NATO, calling for Europe to get prepared by rearming.

The chief of the intelligence service said the assessment was based on Russian plans to double the number of forces stationed along its border with NATO members Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

"Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so," Kaupo Rosin told reporters at the release of Estonia's national security threats report.

A military attack by Russia is "highly unlikely" in the short term, he said, partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russian buildup of forces was matched in Europe.
"If we are not prepared, the likelihood (of a military Russian attack) would be much higher than without any preparation," Rosin added.

Estonia and the other Baltic States have increased their military spending to over 2% of the value of their economies after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and NATO allies have raised their presence in those countries. ...



#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-13 12:20 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

Tangentially related...

Russia puts leader of NATO member Estonia on a wanted list over removal of Soviet-era monuments
www.nbcnews.com

... Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, numerous monuments to Red Army soldiers have been taken down in former Soviet countries.

Estonia's prime minister has been put on a wanted list in Russia because of her efforts to remove Soviet-era World War II monuments in the Baltic nation, officials said Tuesday as tensions between Russia and the West soar amid the war in Ukraine.

The name of Prime Minister Kaja Kallas appeared on the Russian Interior Ministry's list of people wanted on unspecified criminal charges. While independent Russian news outlet Mediazona first reported Tuesday that Kallas was on the list, it said she has been on it for a while. The list includes scores of officials and lawmakers from other Baltic nations.

Kallas responded to the move Tuesday, saying it was "nothing surprising."

In a post on X, she added: "This is yet more proof that I am doing the right thing " the #EUs strong support to #Ukraine is a success and it hurts Russia."

The move was related to her efforts to remove World War II monuments, other Russian officials said. ...


#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-13 12:22 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

With what? Sticks and stones? It'd be over in 20 minutes.

#3 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-02-13 02:17 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade

LOL I guess they got more of that Cold War era hardware to send into a wood chipper.

When they find some kids to man it.

#4 | Posted by jpw at 2024-02-13 11:31 PM | Reply

@#4 ... LOL ...

I would not go there with this threat.

Questions I ask:

Will Pres Putin seek to test the resolve of NATO, especially after his apparent puppet has tried to diminish NATO?

But my main question remains: why does there seem to be so much "NATO" questions in the days surrounding fmr Pres Trump's comment inviting Pres Putin to take over a NATO country?


Coordinated?

Please convince me it was not.

[echoing Alf]: I'm all ears. ...

#5 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-02-14 12:38 AM | Reply

And, of course, if Combover Quisling regains the WH, never to leave, he will side with his boyfriend, the bald dwarf, against our allies in NATO just like he is siding with him against a democratic country in Ukraine. Just like if China attacks Taiwan, Dotard will try to wring some personal profit from the situation but ultimately side with Xi; and of we know he would side with Kim in hostilities with South Korea because he is a traitor. I'm sure if the incompetent Loose Cannon ever lets the stolen classified docs case get to trial, we will find that the fat old rapist POS has shared state secrets with our enemies on several occasions in exchange for personal profit.

#6 | Posted by _Gunslinger_ at 2024-02-14 02:53 AM | Reply

What a sad attempt at sabre rattling.
Indeed, there is no sabre left in the scabbard
for Russia to rattle, unless you count nukes.
And THAT would be suicide.

Pooty Pants has gone off his nut...again.

#7 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-02-14 06:28 AM | Reply

When they find some kids to man it.

#4 | POSTED BY JPW AT 2024-02-13 11:31 PM | REPLY

It's Ukraine that can't find troops. Russia has troops and continues to overrun Avdiivka. Russian logistics continue to regenerate armor at a rate that can last at least another 3 years at current rate of losses, without sourcing them from allies.

#8 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 08:29 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Where as the Panther tanks sent to the front, are all back in the rear, all combat ineffective from lack of spares. The Challenger tanks are in the same situation. The M1 lurks in reserves but hasn't been committed to any front.

#9 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 08:30 AM | Reply

and why is their a lack of spares?

NATO members not meeting their commitments.

#10 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 08:30 AM | Reply

There is a distinct possibility that in 10 years Putin will have died. He's been reported to have health issues. That's not to say his replacement won't be worse than what Russia has now for a leader. Even so, it will take time to make the politburo loyal to the new leader.

Putin has shown to be a sabre rattler with the nuclear weapons. I'm quite sure he's aware, just like Kim in North Korea, the first nuclear weapon to be used could well mean that countries leadership will no longer exist afterward. That's not a prospective winning hand. No one wins a nuclear war. To me it's telling that Putin uses the nuclear threat, knowing it's not winnable. It sounds to me that he's worried about other countries taking advantage of his low manpower for the military as well as his continual drain of weapons. When you issue your new troops WWII weapons and send them to war without full equipment, such as socks, it's telling.

While it's not a chance I'd like to take, I'm not all that sure their nuclear forces are any better than their other weapons of war. Putin has not only gone through his best troops in the Ukraine war, he's also gone through a lot of his most modern weapons. The causality rate has been a heck of a toll.

He's bleeding money to finance this war. His drop in income from the oil and gas he'd normally sell, has been substantial, having to sell it at below market prices in order to attract buyers with the sanctions in place.

The countries most current on their support of NATO (which doesn't have to be money, it can be troops or equipment of equivalent value) are strangely enough those bordering Russia. The further away from Russia the country is, the more in arrears they are. Approximately 35% are current.

#11 | Posted by BBQ at 2024-02-14 09:04 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

and the countries that border Russia don't have indigenous arms industries like Germany, France, or UK that can make Panthers, Leclercs, and Challengers. The ones that can makes things underfund their commitment and their inability to collaborate on a common platform has created a logistics nightmare.

#12 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 09:41 AM | Reply

NATO members not meeting their commitments.

#10 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG AT 2024-02-14 08:30 AM | REPLY

We are not one to talk....thanks to the House GOP...

#13 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-02-14 10:59 AM | Reply

^^ Russian propaganda in action.

The House GOP, in decades of continual bipartisan agreement with Democrats, spends 3.5% of GDP of defense, far beyond NATO requirements.

#14 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 11:15 AM | Reply

"Russia has troops and continues to overrun Avdiivka."
-Sitz above

Russia continues to TRY to overrun Avdiivka.
They've been after it for months, I've been watching daily on
certain YouTube pages that I watch daily over lunch.

Russia has sent over 300k soldiers/men to the meat grinder,
and are pushing for 400k (apparently). Any miniscule gains
that they gain in Ukraine will come at a VERY high price.

They've already lost most of their tanks, and armored vehicles,
not to mention hundreds of helicopters and planes.

One has to wonder if there is ANY sanity in Putin's head at all...

#15 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-02-14 11:26 AM | Reply

#15 | POSTED BY EARTHMUSE AT 2024-02-14 11:26 AM | FLAG:

They're managing it. The main logistic routes have been severed and Russian troops are in the city.

They have at least 3 years of armor left, just based on known reserves at current loss rates.

Just like Ukraine was eventually driven out of Bakhmut, they are grinding down Avdiivka, and they can afford the losses. They have no problem regenerating troops. Ukraine does, so Russia can continue to assault with anywhere from a 5 to 10 vs 1 advantage.

#16 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 11:34 AM | Reply

And that's without their allies giving them hardware. With allied support, Russia can lose tanks at this rate for another 10 years.

#17 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 11:35 AM | Reply

Vlad won't be alive for another ten years, perhaps not another 10 months if he keeps killing Russian kids.

#18 | Posted by Corky at 2024-02-14 11:36 AM | Reply

Russia has sent over 300k soldiers/men to the meat grinder,

Russia has 300K troops in reserve. Their expectation is the US/NATO will eventually enter the war, they are preparing for it.

Its not complicated.

#19 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-02-14 11:53 AM | Reply | Funny: 1

Vlad won't be alive for another ten years, perhaps not another 10 months if he keeps killing Russian kids.

What about Z? Are there any men left? They keep raising the average age in their Army.

Kudzu could use a good Ukrainian wife, perhaps this is really what its about.

#20 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-02-14 11:54 AM | Reply

The Ukrainian Pres is defending his country from an unwarranted foreign invasion targeting civilians.

You, otoh, are defending the invader.

#21 | Posted by Corky at 2024-02-14 11:59 AM | Reply

#19 | Posted by oneironaut

They do not have 300k troops in reserve. Russia's reserves are razor thin at the moment.

#22 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2024-02-14 12:02 PM | Reply

And that's without their allies giving them hardware. With allied support, Russia can lose tanks at this rate for another 10 years.

#17 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG

What are you talking about?

They are already pulling out old tanks that had been mothballed for a decade.

They are having to go to quantity over quality now and that brings even greater losses against Ukraine with its modern, ally supplied weapons.

At current rates, they can only resupply for 2-3 years.

And you are forgetting the bigger picture: They will have been entirely drained financially and militarily long before that. Can they keep fighting? Sure. But they will have no defensive capabilities within 18 months. They will have 0 military force projection at that time. Given how unstable Russia is on its borders, this could ignite smaller fighting all over the place and Russia couldn't do anything about it.

#23 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-02-14 12:04 PM | Reply

Russia has 300K troops in reserve. Their expectation is the US/NATO will eventually enter the war, they are preparing for it.
Its not complicated.

#19 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

That was in 2022. They have no troop reserves anymore.

#24 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-02-14 12:13 PM | Reply

Russia has 300K troops in reserve. Their expectation is the US/NATO will eventually enter the war, they are preparing for it.

#19 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT: So their plan is to wait and fight a two front war? OK.

#25 | Posted by Zed at 2024-02-14 12:36 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 1

And that's without their allies giving them hardware. With allied support, Russia can lose tanks at this rate for another 10 years.

#17 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG

Do T-55's really qualify as "tanks" anymore? I mean they were 80 years ago but they are relying on them in direct conflict.

#26 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2024-02-14 12:39 PM | Reply

Something to note is the destruction of all these military production facilities and key logistic targets in Russia that have been happening. I don't know if the West is helping at all, if it is the Freedom of Russia legion working with Ukraine or just partisans hitting them. They have been getting hit since almost the beginning but suddenly the rate is through the roof. That is in addition to the Oil facilities the Ukrainians are taking out on their own.

#27 | Posted by GalaxiePete at 2024-02-14 12:42 PM | Reply

It's noted. Their production output continues to be steady despite the sabotage campaign and extensive sanctions, their allies are also pouring in hardware. Syc's statements are nonsense and not supported by current reviews of the conflict.

and hilariously there is a T-55 that appeared in the Hungarian Revolution that was found again disabled near Avdiivka. Yet more T-72 keep arriving at the front, along with an unending supply of APCs which are much more important than tanks.

Russia's allies are doing a better job of supplying Russia than Ukraine's allies are doing supplying them. Russia continues to regenerate troops 500k at a time and can do this for years.

#28 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 01:04 PM | Reply

They are already pulling out old tanks that had been mothballed for a decade.

#23 | POSTED BY SYCOPHANT AT 2024-02-14 12:04 PM | FLAG:

Logic breakdown: Just because Russians pulled a T-55 doesn't mean they aren't also pulling more T-72. It just means that particular group of T-55 could be activated fast, and the vast majority of those that did get reactivated are used in Russia for crew training before transitioning upwards. T-72 are still showing up, in numbers. The predictions of them running out, from pundits without a background to make these predictions, were last March. They were wrong.

#29 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 01:10 PM | Reply

and when you do send a T-55 to the front, it's used as artillery in the rear. Guns are guns. The one on the front of it is 100mm and it can share ammo with the 100mm field guns.

Russians aren't corrupt, not stupid.

#30 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 01:12 PM | Reply

Are corrupt, not stupid lol

#31 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 01:12 PM | Reply

They are already pulling out old tanks that had been mothballed for a decade.
#23 | POSTED BY SYCOPHANT AT 2024-02-14 12:04 PM | FLAG:
Logic breakdown: Just because Russians pulled a T-55 doesn't mean they aren't also pulling more T-72. It just means that particular group of T-55 could be activated fast, and the vast majority of those that did get reactivated are used in Russia for crew training before transitioning upwards. T-72 are still showing up, in numbers. The predictions of them running out, from pundits without a background to make these predictions, were last March. They were wrong.

#29 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG

They lost more tanks then they started the war with.

They can't keep the production up for more than 2-3 years tops. It's a drain on their financial reserves. It's a drain on troops. It's now quantity over quality.
-International Institute for Strategic Studies

www.businessinsider.com

#32 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-02-14 02:05 PM | Reply

I put the ISW link on the back page. Obviously we can all see the flaw right? Because I add it in the comments.

They have tens of thousands more on tap from allies when they need them.

#33 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 03:18 PM | Reply

Ukraine isn't fighting just Russia and the Russian economy. They're fighting Russia and all of its allies stockpiles and economic output.

Ukraine only has 1 option to hold the line, regenerate forces. That means continually lowering the draft age and getting ready to bring in the high school kids.

#34 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-14 03:19 PM | Reply

Ukraine only has 1 option to hold the line, regenerate forces. That means continually lowering the draft age and getting ready to bring in the high school kids.

#34 | Posted by sitzkrieg

meanwhile russia is now drafting 70 year olds

#35 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-02-14 03:37 PM | Reply

Its not complicated.

#19 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

Sounds pretty complicated to me.

If Russia attacks NATO its going to get very complicated very fast.

But NATO will never attack Russia first.

It's not in their charter.

#36 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-02-14 05:58 PM | Reply

"And that's without their allies giving them hardware. With allied support, Russia can lose tanks at this rate for another 10 years."

To do what? Hold the line in the east?

The Soviet 40th Army entered Afghanistan with 100k troops in 1979. They left a decade later after losing 14.5k and succeeded only in creating a government that was overthrown a few years later? Sounds kinda familiar doesn't it.

The most current reasonable estimate on Russian losses is 107K. When Germany was defeated at the end of WWII, they still had a very formidable Air Force. What they lacked was fuel and people to fly them. Without the people to operate the widget and maneuver it effectively in combat, the widget is useless. And if it's not already happened, at some point Russia is going to start sticking Snoofys and Speaksoftlys into tanks, because that's all they have. How effective do you think Snoofy would be in combat?

We don't know the win-lines, so we can't really predict how long this will go on. Maybe Putin is able to retain occupied Ukraine. That's likely. But if the goal is still to create a Ukrainian puppet state or annex it outright, that's highly unlikely. Even if Russia were to achieve that goal, it would just be another asymmetric fight against insurgents.

#37 | Posted by madbomber at 2024-02-15 01:25 AM | Reply

meanwhile russia is now drafting 70 year olds

#35 | POSTED BY SPEAKSOFTLY AT 2024-02-14 03:37 PM | FLAG:

Russia is still drafting in outlying provinces. Their reserves are 10x deeper than Ukraine, and the age group Ukraine can tap next, the 21-27 year old crowd, had massive numbers flee the country rather than fight. Russia did a far better job of keeping people from running away, despite the corruption. The average Ukrainian soldier is 43 years old.

Ukraine's position is increasingly precarious and word is to expect big Russian gains in 2025.

#38 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 08:18 AM | Reply

But if the goal is still to create a Ukrainian puppet state or annex it outright, that's highly unlikely. Even if Russia were to achieve that goal, it would just be another asymmetric fight against insurgents.

#37 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER AT 2024-02-15 01:25 AM | FLAG:

Are we making bets on the finish line before a negotiated ending? I think that is how it eventually ends, but more favorable to Russia. The finish line will be whatever river line they make it to before Ukraine can contain them in choke points. Eastern Ukraine has too much open ground. Then multiple regional puppet states will exist as Russia's neighbor.

Snoofy doesn't have to be combat effective. He just has to run forward and absorb artillery and some somewhat train troops will storm in his wake. The Ukrainians don't have enough artillery to kill all the Snoofy's over time. NATO can't supply it fast enough. NATO production moves at the pace of Democracy, glacially.

#39 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 08:22 AM | Reply

Literally what Russians are doing right now and can sustain for several more years without tapping allies, without drafting the Moscow suburbs, etc.

#40 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 08:23 AM | Reply

More bad news. Russians are able to obtain local air superiority over Avdiivka, launching 40 airstrikes yesterday. All the 2 Ukr brigades can do is duck and cover, while the air attacks push them backwards with 7 Rus brigades assaulting.

#41 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 08:33 AM | Reply

#37

Snoofy was great in a Sopwith Camel!

#42 | Posted by Corky at 2024-02-15 10:22 AM | Reply

"Russia's allies are doing a better job of supplying Russia than Ukraine's allies are doing supplying them. Russia continues to regenerate troops 500k at a time and can do this for years.

#28 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG"

Hogwash. In comparison to the Ukrainian invasion, the Russian lost a fraction of the men, wealth and arms of their country in the Afghanistan War and their entire empire collapsed. Do you really think the Russians in St. Petersburg and Moscow want to waste their lives in Ukraine or attack NATO or that the outlying provinces will tolerate all their men and women dying far off for Vlad the Warrior Midgets fascist war?

#43 | Posted by Wildman62 at 2024-02-15 10:28 AM | Reply

"Ukraine's position is increasingly precarious and word is to expect big Russian gains in 2025.

#38 | POSTED BY SITZKRIEG"

Are you not of those Putler fans that wrote that this war would last like two weeks?
Yet, here you are with these statements based upon what again?

#44 | Posted by Wildman62 at 2024-02-15 10:38 AM | Reply

Are you not of those Putler fans that wrote that this war would last like two weeks?

#44 | POSTED BY WILDMAN62 AT 2024-02-15 10:38 AM | FLAG:

Nope. I'm the voice of reason that said, hold up, Russians are about to drive through forests loaded with slavs with RPGs.

I was wrong. It was Javelins.

#45 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 11:11 AM | Reply

More bad news, just 7 hours old. Russian build up in Orkiv for an offensive that is much larger than the Avdiivka offensive.

The Russian army is now much larger than when the war started.

#46 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 12:30 PM | Reply

"Are we making bets on the finish line before a negotiated ending?"

Finish line or win-line. The finish line will be determined by the win-line, and we can only speculate on that.

"Snoofy doesn't have to be combat effective. He just has to run forward and absorb artillery and some somewhat train troops will storm in his wake."

Putin has been very careful to isolate the war from the "Russian" Russians, relying on prisoners and a renewed recruitment campaign. RUSMIL actually offers pretty good pay and decent benefits, surprisingly. Far better than what I was getting as an E-4 back in the late 1990s. But if forced into mobilizing conscripts, that will be problematic. Hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the country during the 2022 partial mobilization.

A lot of the fervent support for the SMO comes from older Russians who are nostalgic for the power and prestige of the USSR. They would make EXCELLENT meat waves and might even be down to die as their fathers or grandfathers had. The younger people who support Putin, they seem less willing to die for his vision. In other words, I don't think that Putin has the meat available to absorb millions of deaths like the country did during WWII.

#47 | Posted by madbomber at 2024-02-15 12:31 PM | Reply

"older Russians who are nostalgic for the power and prestige of the USSR."

Make Russia Great Again.
We have those kinds of idiots too.

#48 | Posted by snoofy at 2024-02-15 12:37 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the country during the 2022 partial mobilization.

#47 | POSTED BY MADBOMBER AT 2024-02-15 12:31 PM | FLAG:

This also happened to Ukraine though, and Ukraine lost all the guys in the Donbass prior to that. Russia has a lot more depth left to use that Ukraine doesn't. I think they can take it to the Oskil and that'll be their finish line in 2025.

#49 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-02-15 03:46 PM | Reply

Insurgency was the original plan and I have the feeling that insurgency is what Russia will get. Maybe twenty years of that will be enough to give Russia the hint.

#50 | Posted by censored at 2024-02-16 04:31 PM | Reply

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