Harris Has Biggest Favorability Jump Since George W. Bush after 9/11

Thomas Miller is a widely respected data scientist from Northwestern University. Miller developed a model that uses data from political betting sites rather than polls.

Could there be a Kamala Harris landslide in November? The data scientist who correctly called the last election is betting yes

"Miller's view merits close attention for two basic reasons: First, it's based on numbers-crunching that's arguably a lot more scientific than the voter surveys almost always cited to chart the contest's trajectory, and second, he achieved pinpoint accuracy four years ago." - Fortune

"It's gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," said Miller. He said it would now take an equally dramatic shift in Trump's favor for the ex-president to come back into contention. Miller said as things stood now it appeared as if Harris would win big on November 5. - Benzinga

See, no worries, as harris has it in the bag ; )

"See, no worries, as harris has it in the bag ; )"

MSGT says with tongue in cheek.

Harris is steadily gaining ground . . . which is better than Trump steadily losing ground.

However, we're still looking forward to that October Suprise Trump has up his sleeve. Why don't you clue us in as to what you think we can expect. One of Trump's dog whistles will do if you don't know the particulars.

Trump and his brownshirts desperately tried to steal democracy from us in 2020, who knows what they'll do in 2024. It's a disgrace to our country that he's not in prison for treason

Why don't you clue us in as to what you think we can expect.

Lewzer's buddy Little Rocket Man hasn't done anything unusually stupid for a while...

Steve Kornacki
@SteveKornacki

Men: Trump 52-40%
Women: Harris 58-37%

White: Trump 52-43%
Black: Harris 85-7%
Hispanic: Harris 54-35%

White, College+: 59-38% Harris
White, no degree: 61-33% Trump
9:02 AM Sep 22, 2024

HAMBURGLER

In 2020 Trump learn what didn't work. So he won't try that again.

But desperation is pulling his chain from a number of different directions, including Russia, so he'll have to come up with something that works . . . maybe even a double murder . . . to keep himself out of the jams he's in.

With enough money I guess he could find somebody to do anything.

Many pundits have pointed this out already. Trump is well-defined. His level of support is pretty much calcified.

Kamala took advantage of the opportunity to define herself. I think it's been far beyond what anyone predicted.

Cue the 'Jaws' theme. Trump hears it playing while he sweats out losing for the second time. This time to a black woman.

Reek is going to get trucked.

Four words: "Aunt Kamimima's Cat Curry"

#4 | Posted by Twinpac

Trump's become Chicken Little. He's shouted so many various ridiculous things for so long he's worn America out.

Cue the 'Jaws' theme. Trump hears it playing while he sweats out losing for the second time. This time to a black woman.

#9 | Posted by zarnon

HA! His legal troubles are circling. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the 11th Circuit overturns Cannon and reinstates the classified document case, and assigns a new judge. She was already on a short leash with them after they slapped her down following her decision to delay by appointing a "special master." The 11th Circuit Court is majority conservative, but in the traditional Reagan or Bush sense. They don't like judges like Cannon who so blatantly put their thumb on the scale for the benefit of one.

If you recall, she dismissed Trump's charges by citing a 150-year-old law to declare Jack Smith's appointment as Special Counsel unconstitutional

Here's an article about the probability Jack Smith prevails in his appeal before the 11th Circuit:

11th Circuit 'Will Reverse' Judge Cannon's Mar-A-Lago Dismissal: Attorney

www.newsweek.com

If Trump loses, the next two or three years of his life will be spent in courtrooms. Then? Well, ankle bracelets after possible short stints in the clink.

"11th Circuit 'Will Reverse' Judge Cannon's Mar-A-Lago Dismissal"

Jack Smith has already filed the paperwork.

So, I'm curious why they haven't done so already. So another judge can decide what's covered by immunity and what isn't, including failure to comply with a subpoena which is what necessitated the action taken by the FBI to retrieve the stolen documents.

People flock to positivity.

All dotard has is hate, lies and fear.

The brown people are going to kill you. The brown people are going to invade your homes. The brown people are going to steal your job. It is sooooo --- tiring.

This is good news. Now, get your a$$es out there and vote like your continued freedom depends upon it...

I find the overconfidence of liberals on this site disturbing.

I find the overconfidence of liberals on this site disturbing.

I don't see any "overconfidence" on this thread. I see the factual reporting of trends and polls which are only snapshots of now, not what will happen on election day.

What you see are people that are hopeful America is ready to put Donald Trump in its rearview mirror, once and for all. But I don't see anyone who isn't fully cognizant that what looks promising today could again turn into a nightmare at any time through November 5th.

It's all coming down to getting Harris voters to the polls in key states in greater number than Trump's. Nothing else really matters, but it is much more heartening to feel positive about this race than to be immersed in dread and worry about Trump repeating his 2016 outcome.

No one should be overconfident. We haven't had the Republicans' October surprise yet. That said, have hope, work hard and vote, vote, vote.

"I find the overconfidence of liberals on this site disturbing." - #17 | Posted by Whatsleft at 2024-09-23 10:28 AM

I have to give this post an LOL.

Liberals are always the ones who run around with their hair on fire, clutching their pearls, worried about absolutely everything.

This year, liberals have all the reason in the world to be optimistic. Cautious, but optimistic.

So, I can understand why anyone might mistake liberal cautious optimism as "overconfidence." :-)

The only October surprise Donnie Dementia has is keeping his diaper clean for more than 8 hours.

So, I can understand why anyone might mistake liberal cautious optimism as "overconfidence." :-)

#20 | POSTED BY HANS

Agreed. It's definitely been a minute!

I am not over confident. I am confident just enough. Which is actually barely confident at all.

I feel we at least have a chance of turning this tide. But what worries me is what is the force that is behind this tide? And what happens if we actually do stop this maga nonsense in its tracks? Where does that energy go then?

All I know is that it's gonna be wild! So stand back and stand by! It's the greatest show on earth. Welcome to the Grand Illusion ... come on in and see what's happening! Pay your price and get your tickets for the show.

And like the old man with the white horse said, "We'll see."

Favorability Ratings: Political Leaders
www.realclearpolling.com

...
Biden: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 9/4 - 9/17 -- 41.5 54.6 Spread -13.1

Trump: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 9/3 - 9/17 -- 44.4 52.8 Spread -8.4

Kamala Harris: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 9/3 - 9/17 -- 48.7 47.6 Spread +1.1

Mike Johnson: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 7/26 - 9/17 -- 25.0 34.3 Spread -9.3

Hakeem Jeffries: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 7/3 - 9/17 -- 29.7 30.3 Spread -0.6

Chuck Schumer: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 7/26 - 9/17 -- 29.0 42.7 Spread -13.7

Mitch McConnell: Favorable/Unfavorable
pollster date sample Favorable Unfavorable spread
RCP Average 10/4 - 9/17 -- 20.7 59.7 Spread -39.0
...

A huge favorability rise for GW Bush is not a testament to the reliability of the American people.

Patriotism transferred to a president in times of distress. Won't see that movie again for a while.

I am 10000% confident of a Harris win, and a big win. As for the October surprise ... it's coming but not from the traitor.

The October surprise will be proof that Trump paid for an abortion.

Thats good.

If dishonesty and mediocrity together could assume human form, the result would look and sound like Vice President Kamala Harris.

At a town hall in Farmington Hills, Michigan, on Thursday, moderated by billionaire media mogul and Harris supporter Oprah Winfrey, the vice president treated audience members, viewers and listeners to an evening of question dodging, rehearsed lies, brazen hypocrisy and jaw-dropping rhetorical nonsense " pure, concentrated drivel from the mind of a complete fraud who communicates nothing because she knows nothing.

Not my words but all so true out the mouths of true journalists. Western Journal

The October surprise will be proof that Trump paid for an abortion.
#26 | POSTED BY ALEXANDRITE

It would be that much of a surprise as he was a Democrat.

Was it legal?

Not my words but all so true out the mouths of true journalists.

She seems to have an issue with independent voters, they want to hear more. They apparently weren't satisfied with the debate.

Liberals are always the ones who run around with their hair on fire, clutching their pearls, worried about absolutely everything.

Those aren't Liberals they are Lumpers, as a liberal I don't do any of that, am cool like the other side of the pillow.

Lumpers, since you are a newbie.

The Left Goes to War with Itself
www.politico.com

@#28 ... She seems to have an issue with independent voters, they want to hear more. They apparently weren't satisfied with the debate. ...

That's quite an assertion about independent voters.

Got links or evidence?

@#29 ... as a liberal I don't do any of that, ...

Sometimes your current alias posts the funniest things.

@#29 ... The Left Goes to War with Itself ...

... and thank-you for that article.

To my reading it shows that the Democrats are not a cult that has to obey their cult leader, but a big tent of differing opinions that often disagrees with itself.

I find it quite interesting that your current alias seems to find such disagreements, and resulting discussions, as A Bad Thing.

In reference: #29

Thank you for your insightful input, oneironaut

Calling Hans a newbie on this site was stupid, naut, even for you.

NPC.

To my reading it shows that the Democrats are not a cult that has to obey their cult leader, but a big tent of differing opinions that often disagrees with itself.

The opposite of "lumpers." Then again we're dealing with that One. Our very own newspeak doublethink pipsqueak.

#34 - NPC.
ha! Perfect.

@#33

Wow, now we have charts to illustrate the apparent self-inflicted inanity of #29.

Thank you for your insightful input, oneironaut

That is brilliant!!
Hans, damn have I missed you!
:-)

Unrelated tune that just happened to pop up on a playlist here ...

Steve Forbert - Romeo's Tune (1979)
www.youtube.com

But that tune led me to one by Mr Forbert that I liked...

Steve Forbert - Make It All So Real (1979)
www.youtube.com

Lyrics excerpt...

genius.com

...
Take your seat in the table
Watch the cabaret fill
Ted came down for the singer
He saw the name on the bill
How the minutes were draggin', as the audience grew
Ted was growing impatient, as he swallowed his brew
"It's time to welcome the artist", he heard somebody say
Saw a face in the floodlight and ev'rything was ok....

Singer man, do your work
Sing your song
Make it hurt
Sing the tears
Sing the pain
Make it all so real

Then the singer was singing all his serious songs
And his band was a-playing;
Ted was hummin' along
Meanwhile back in a corner
There was a table for two
Where sat the singer's cute lover
And she was drinkin' a few

All snuggled up with a stranger
Who had his hand on her thigh
She was receivin' his message
And gazing into his eyes...

[chorus]

So the sound came a-rollin'
Tumblin' into the night
And all the people were ravin'
Saying, "Man our singer's alright!"
And "Such a burnin' performer!"
"What a fabulous show!"

Little lover was stirrin'
She was ready to go
And while the singer was wailing she got up to depart
The crowd was stompin' and cheering
She was breakin' his heart...
...

Yeah, they don't write lyrics like that anymore.