Federal Forecast Concerns Surface in Texas' Deadly Flooding Debate

As Floods Hit, Key Roles Were Vacant at Weather Service Offices in Texas

Some experts say staff shortages might have complicated forecasters' ability to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials.

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.

Texas officials appeared to blame the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm's unusually abrupt escalation.

The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said " the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.

Why weren't emergency alerts sent out to every cell phone like local authorities do here in my city?

#10: This imbecilic Texas Republican is blaming 'bureaucrats." Uh-huh. twitter.com

#11 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS

Around here, if there's a tornado or flash flood warning, everyone's cell phones shriek loudly, waking up anyone sleeping.

This is on Trump and Texas officials. Trump for idiotic DOGE cuts to the NWA, and TX authorities for not sending out alerts.

#10: This imbecilic Texas Republican is blaming 'bureaucrats." Uh-huh. twitter.com

Posted by C0RI0LANUS

Roy has no way of blaming Biden and Democrats, so idiocy it is.

No matter what the damned crisis is in Texas, Governor "Hey, Abbott!" has a phalanx of Texas Rangers standing behind him at parade rest, like a posse is going to solve avian flu, the measles, drought, border jumpers, flooding, screwworm, or an E. coli outbreak from food poisoning.

Islamophobe Governor Abbott ordered the Texas Rangers to investigate a mosque. Never mind that a refugee who worked with US Special Forces in Afghanistan was murdered over a parking space in the Lone Star State and the case was not prosecuted.

Link:

gov.texas.gov

Here's the reality which again proves that various libbie sources are doing nothing but lying: -- Fact is the warnings were put out in a timely manner.

From GOOGLE AI Overview:The National Weather Service (NWS) began issuing flood watches and warnings for Texas as early as Thursday, July 3rd, with more severe warnings, including flash flood warnings and emergencies, following on Friday, July 4th. These alerts were issued in anticipation of heavy rainfall that led to widespread flooding, particularly in the Hill Country region.
Here's a more detailed timeline:
Thursday, July 3rd:
The NWS issued flood watches for parts of south-central Texas, including Kerr County, in the afternoon.
Thursday, July 3rd, around 1:00 PM:
A flood watch was issued for Kerr County, with potential for 5-7 inches of rain, according to FOX 4 News Dallas-Fort Worth.
Thursday, July 3rd, around 12:41 AM (early Friday morning):
An initial flash flood watch was issued for Kerr County, with the potential for isolated rain amounts of up to 10 inches.
Friday, July 4th, around 1:14 AM:
A flash flood warning was issued for Kerr County, indicating the potential for life-threatening flooding, according to FOX 4 News Dallas-Fort Worth.
Friday, July 4th, around 5:30 AM:
A flash flood emergency was issued for Kerr County and the Guadalupe River.
Friday, July 4th, around 2:37 a.m.:
The Flash Flood Watch was extended.
Saturday, July 5th, around 12:41 a.m.:
A Central Texas flood watch was issued, largely in Burnet, Travis, and Williamson counties.
These alerts were communicated through various channels, including Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs), NOAA Weather Radio, and social media.

#15 | POSTED BY MSGT

Donald Trump helped to kill these kids.

You and he are fighting desperately tro evade responsibility.

But it's an argument that you've already lost.

And because you won't admit it, other kids will die.

Here's the reality which again proves that various libbie sources are doing nothing but lying: -- Fact is the warnings were put out in a timely manner.

The complaints are that the warnings were not accurate and did not go out in a timely manner. Issuing a life or death warning at 3am is ineffective and everyone including the weather service knows it. That's why communication with local Emergency Management officials is so important.

That's why they have to closely coordinate with local emergency management. This requires money and staffing for outreach programs to provide NOAA Weather Radios to key local managers all of which have been eliminated or severely restricted.

A warning does no good if no one gets it.

The weather service is a vital national security organization whose only mission is the protection of lives and property. And it has been underfunded for decades.

Not only have they been underfunded they have had to work with continuing resolutions and no budget at all for many years while Congress fights over the budget and closes the government. In addition to the constant anti science attacks from republicans in denial of climate change. And then Trumpy comes along and guts them like a fish.

This result was all predicted many times over. And expect more of the same while we continue to enjoy Mr Toads Wild Ride. (Ver 2.0)

The forecasters in the NWS offices are "community experts" who have close working relationships with emergency managers, school districts and other local decision-makers, Becker says. Without those proactive efforts, "you're basically watching the storm," Uccellini says.

How Trump's National Weather Service Cuts Could Cost Lives
www.scientificamerican.com

These alerts were communicated through various channels, including Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs), NOAA Weather Radio, and social media.
#15 | Posted by MSgt

So, the children who died are just ------- idiots then.
Problem solved.

After deadly Texas floods, calls rise for better warnings
www.csmonitor.com

... As many as 10 children were still missing late Sunday, nearly three days after the Guadalupe River in south-central Texas rose 26 feet in less than an hour and raged through a summer camp and down a valley popular with vacationers. ...

The storm intensified overnight, so the most urgent warnings from the National Weather Service came in the early morning hours as people slept. ...

[emphasis mine]

MSGT

there is no talking to these lying scum
sucking ----------.

they're liars and despicable human beings. we just thought their tacit
approval of women and children was a sign of their lack of human decency.they've set a new bar of human filth

n 2017, Texas received grant form the trump administration and used the money to install 10 new gauges and high water detection systems.
In 2023 Pepsi awarded a grant that was used to replace two radial gates that regulate flooding and high tide on the Guadalupe River.. ( PEPSI... NOT THE BRAIN DEAD VEGETABLE)
Tim Fahy, legislative director for the national weather service, said local weather stations were adequately staffed and issued warnings on July 3 and 4. He made it clear that staffing and funding had nothing to do with this ..

'rape and murder of women and children

So, the children who died are just ------- idiots then.
Problem solved.

#19 | Posted by snoofy

No, Texas is just a f*&^ed up state where development at all costs is the norm and people are willing to risk it all because they don't want no stinkin' gubmint tellin' 'em stuff.

This is a multi-level failure, and a few dozen kids paid the price for it.

@#23 ... This is a multi-level failure, and a few dozen kids paid the price for it. ...

What early warnings did flood-hit Texas receive?
www.bbc.com

... Judge Rob Kelly, the top elected official in Kerr County, told the BBC's US partner CBS News that the severity of the flooding had been unexpected.

"We had no reason to believe that this was gonna be any, anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever," Kelly said. ...

What flood warnings were issued and when?

The flash floods began on Thursday night and continued into Friday morning, with meteorologists saying several months' worth of rain fell in just a few hours.

In the space of 45 minutes in the early hours of Friday morning, the Guadalupe River rose by 26ft (8m), causing it to burst its banks.

By then there had been several flood warnings issued:

- - - On Wednesday, the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated state emergency response resources because of "increased threats of flooding" in parts of west and central Texas

- - - On Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a flood watch that highlighted Kerr County, central Texas, as a place at high risk of flash flooding overnight

- - - At 01:14 local time (06:14 GMT) on Friday a flash flood warning was issued for Kerr County

- - - At 04:03 local time (09:30 GMT) an emergency flash flood warning was issued for Kerr County, followed by another for the Guadalupe River at 05:34

Was there a failure to warn people?

The NWS has defended itself, saying it was heartbroken at the loss but that it did all it could, conducting briefings on Thursday and issuing a flood watch warning that afternoon.

"The forecasting was good. The warnings were good. It's always about getting people to receive the message," Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist based in Wisconsin, told NBC News. "It appears that is one of the biggest contributors - that last mile."

People have reported receiving text message alerts on their mobile phones early on Friday morning, warning them of flooding. Some residents told the New York Times they did not understand the seriousness of them and others said they never received any at all.

Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, told reporters: "You have areas where there is no cell phone coverage, plus some coverage.

"It doesn't matter how many alert systems you sign up for, you're not going to get that."

The public can also get desensitised if it believes it is receiving too many weather warnings, said Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice, according to the Associated Press.

He said he didn't notice any problems and that it was only raining lightly at 03:30 Friday when he went jogging along the Guadalupe River trail.

But by 05:20, the water had risen so fast "we almost weren't able to get out of the park," he said.

Judge Kelly said there is no county-administered warning system in the area because such systems are expensive. ...

Texas turned down a $1,000,000 grant for Kerr County to install sirens along the Guadalupe River, which is known for flash floods.

All while slashing property taxes in the state by $51 billion.

Texas has a growing backlog of flood management projects, totaling some $54 billion across the state. The state flood plan of the Texas Water Development Board called on lawmakers to dedicate additional funding to invest in potentially lifesaving infrastructure.

But lawmakers have so far allocated only a fraction of the money needed for flood projects through the state's Flood Infrastructure Fund, about $669 million so far, even as state lawmakers this year approved $51 billion in property tax cuts.

Kerr County, in its earlier discussions about a warning system, had explored along with other members of the Upper Guadalupe River Authority the possibility of applying for financial support through the infrastructure fund. But the authority dropped the idea after learning that the fund would provide only about 5 percent of the money needed for the project.

Republicans have fired meteorologists, cut emergency disaster aid, and given an extra $18 billion to the fossil fuel corporations causing this crisis."

"These deaths are on Trump's hands,"

www.alternet.org

#25 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY

The better solution would be to stop developing in danger zones.

But we, as a country, foolishly accept building in flood prone areas nationwide and eating the cost year after year for home repairs on dwellings that shouldn't exist to begin with.

#27: But we, as a country, foolishly accept building in flood prone areas nationwide and eating the cost year after year for home repairs on dwellings that shouldn't exist to begin with.

My insurance company, USAA, finally stopped paying for people who chose to live near rivers. Their letter basically stated USAA members should not be subsidizing somebody else's reckless choices (but in a more diplomatic way).

#28 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS

We have USAA as well. Great company.

Years ago, my wife and I almost bought a different house than our current one. It was on 7 acres in a great area of the city. We balked because the driveway access went across someone else's yard with an easement, and we'd have had to spend oodles to get direct driveway access from the road that sat 20' above the property. We ended up so grateful we passed on buying it because of that.

When a 100 year flood happened years ago that house was completely submerged.

#29: Hi American Unity: You and your wife are lucky indeed. I ended up doing a career in the US Army when music and all else failed, which allowed me to join USAA.

BTW: I have a large library and I'm happy to lend my books out, with the exception of two tomes which never leave my humble abode upon pain of death: Beethoven's Letters and The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius.

If you haven't read them, I humbly suggest you do and add them to your library.

content.alfred.com

cdn.dc5.ro

Otherwise, friends and neighbors borrow my Damon Runyans, Shakespeares, Agatha Christies, or P.G. Wodehouses. But never those two.

My ever-loving wife just came home so I have to fire up her dinner (Oriental sesame chicken, Japanese gohan, and sauteed mushrooms with garlic and onions. And we're listening to Bizet's L'Arlsienne Suite.

The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius

I'm reading that now. I suspect it will be a repeat read.

woman dr in Houston fired after she made a remark similar to some of what you
worthless goddamn fuvking ---- eatingdespicable so called humans have.

-my sources in the "people's republic
of Austin tell me Abbott is going for her license.

I would suggest that some of you are
doxxed about your job but we need more
like jpF and clowndung reinEATSgoobers and legallysxdk to do their job
of scraping up road kill in the mornings

After deadly Texas floods, calls rise for better warnings

How about not permitting people to build cabins in a flood zone (Camp Mystic).

In San Diego there are flood zones where you can't build domiciles. So the rich build golf courses, and horse ranches.

FEMA has a website: msc.fema.gov

#31: Hi JPW: Yup, you suspect correct. The Meditations of Marcus Aurelius should be re-read every couple of years. Good for you.

On a completely different subject, every five years or so I re-read Immanuel Velikovky's Worlds in Collision because it's an interesting concept and the birth of 'pseudo-science' (published the same year as the other pseudo-scientific book "Dianetics" in 1950).

I think both of these authors, Velikovsky an intellectual, and L. Ron Hubbard, a mountebank, were capitalizing on the post-WWII malaise afflicting people.

Anyways, enjoy Meditations.

images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com

How about not permitting people to build cabins in a flood zone (Camp Mystic).

#33 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

You won't be able to convince MAGA of that.

They avoid vaccines for deadly diseases, for God's sake.

#30 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS

Thanks for the reading suggestions. I'm a big reader myself and am sure I'll enjoy them.

BTW, I've read three of Velikovky's books. Interesting premises and interesting reads. I recall, for instance, he linked ancient Greek mythology to the time Mars entered the sun's orbit and looked as though it had a beard and horns from an electrical field... tropical vegetation found in the Arctic to bolster the theory the earth's axis shifted, etc etc. I also recall reading back then that his books were once required reading at several Ivy League schools.

Devastating Texas Floods Shattered 93-Year Record
www.newsweek.com

... The catastrophic floods that hit central Texas over the weekend caused the Guadalupe River to flood so high it broke a 93-year-old record by nearly a foot.

Newsweek reached out to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Austin, which is the forecast region for Hunt, Texas, where the record was set, by phone for comment.
Why It Matters

On Friday, the NWS issued urgent warnings to people across central Texas amid heavy downpours that resulted in months' worth of rain at once, prompting the Guadalupe River to surge around 25 feet in only 45 minutes. ...

So, this level of flooding has occurred previously?

And Texas seemed to be unprepared for it?

Didn't they learn from the past?

#30 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS

We have it through my wife, whose dad retired from the AF after 30 years, starting in WWII's Army Air Corp.

Camp Mystic was totally obliterated thanks to the-------------.

There's no concern, this is just political hogwash.

Didn't they learn from the past?
#38 | Posted by LampLighter

Does not happen frequently enough.

Why are cabins for kids in the flood zone?

Why is a fake ass so-called ----- ----- covering for a fat, lazy, incompetent racist -------?

Gohan literally means meal. Do you mean you have a rice cooker and are using our fine California rice?

#44: 'Gohan' is the term our family uses for rice. I cook with Japanese ingredients whenever possible. My late mother learned to make sushi and sashimi from the Japanese nearly one century ago. The "San Francisco treat' is not what I prepared: i5.walmartimages.com

River Flooding Expected In Kerr County Over Weekend (2023)
kerrcountytx.gov

... Heavy rainfall is expected to fall in multiple rounds over Kerr County and the Hill Country this weekend, dumping enough precipitation that forecasters anticipate flash flooding of the Guadalupe River and other waterways.

"Dominoes are falling as expected ... parameters for a widespread, heavy rainfall event are coming together, with the rainfall threat ramping up Friday evening and into the weekend," reported Greg Waller, a service coordination hydrologist with the West Gulf River Forecast Center update this morning. ...