Prof Allan Lichtman Predicted 9 Or the Last 10 Elections

Monday, May 13, 2024

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C, has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections since Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984.

Posted by Corky at 02:32 PM | 23 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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"You don't plan to unveil your 2024 prediction until around August, but what are you thinking and seeing now?

"Forget the polls, forget the pundits.

Polls six months, five months, even closer to the election have zero predictive value.

Forget all of the pundits who have said Biden's too old. Democrat's only chance to win is with Biden running for re-election.

One of my keys is incumbency, he obviously wins that. Another key is party contest, he's not been contested. That's two keys off the top that Biden wins. That means six keys out of the remaining 11 would have to fall to predict his defeat.

I've also said while I have no final prediction, a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose."

#1 | Posted by Corky at 2024-05-13 12:34 PM | Reply

a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose."

#1 | POSTED BY CORKY

It should have never gotten this far, as far as a third Trump attempt at the WH. It points to something sick in American society; it points to something sick in those individuals who make up a certain red segment of American society.

#2 | Posted by Zed at 2024-05-13 03:02 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 6

This is what I've been saying...

No way Trump wins.

#3 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-05-13 03:14 PM | Reply

"This is what I've been saying..."

LOL!

Yeah, whatever, Lumpy.

#4 | Posted by Angrydad at 2024-05-13 03:21 PM | Reply

Vote anti-Zionist.. unless that's illegal now too.

#5 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2024-05-13 03:31 PM | Reply

Campus protests equates social unrest?

Yeeesh. The youth are going to double-fnkc Biden with protests AND not coming out to vote/voting 3rd party.

#6 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2024-05-13 04:08 PM | Reply

I dunno...

With young Barron "I'm not mentally slow, just a dork" Trump entering the political fray, voters will be energized to vote Trump Party, to get their hands on this rising star. Of course, with Barron about to cast off for the University of Southern Slovenia (where he live in protective custody with relatives) voters will not have access to this future US king for long...

#7 | Posted by catdog at 2024-05-13 04:16 PM | Reply

Whistling past the graveyard.

#8 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-05-13 04:44 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Whistling past the graveyard.

#8 | POSTED BY BLUEWAFFLES

Mr. 80,000 can whistle?

#9 | Posted by Zed at 2024-05-13 04:53 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

"a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose."

That's the plan, starting with not signing the border bill, and we're prepared to shut down the government, again, if necessary.
Signed,
Republicans

#10 | Posted by snoofy at 2024-05-13 05:04 PM | Reply

This is what I've been saying...

No way Trump wins.

#3 | Posted by oneironaut

Yet you fight every day to help him.

#11 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-05-13 05:16 PM | Reply

Sniffling past the 90 percent record of correct projections.

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2024-05-13 05:20 PM | Reply

Zed figured out how to type like an American.

Snoofy, whose projections encapsulate your 90%?

#13 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-05-13 05:27 PM | Reply

Remember the octopus who predicted soccer matches?

Now that was impressive.

As far as this guy, they were all calling it for Hillary too.

Biden has to fight for this one. He's not putting in the effort.

#14 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-05-13 05:33 PM | Reply

Curious as to which one he got wrong. Did a cursory search and couldn't find it. I fear it was 2016.

#15 | Posted by memyselfini at 2024-05-13 08:15 PM | Reply

Curious as to which one he got wrong.

2000.

#16 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-05-13 08:17 PM | Reply

Well, that does it boys, it's over with - just ask Corky.

#17 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2024-05-13 09:30 PM | Reply

Yet you fight every day to help him.

#11 | POSTED BY SPEAKSOFTLY

Yes I do, I try to plot a course that would help him succeed.

I am not as you say, a sycophant.

Do you believe that this board has a significant affect on the election?

I have gone to two fundraisers here in silicon valley supporting Democrats and Joe Biden.

How many have you attended?

#18 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-05-13 10:17 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

I have gone to two fundraisers here in silicon valley supporting Democrats and Joe Biden.
How many have you attended?
#18 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

What did you do for your contribution--piss in the punch?

(Will piss be bleeped out? How about pee?)

#19 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-05-13 10:55 PM | Reply

Gal, lmfao!

#20 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-05-13 11:02 PM | Reply

I have gone to two fundraisers here in silicon valley supporting Democrats and Joe Biden.
#18 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

400 years ago on the planet Earth, workers who felt their livelihood threatened by automation flung their wooden shoes called sabots into the machines to stop them. Hence the word 'sabotage.'

#21 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2024-05-14 03:10 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#12 ... Sniffling past the 90 percent record of correct projections. ...

A few weeks back when the 4.8 earthquake hit New Jersey, the US Geological Service ( USGS.gov ) stated that there was only a 10% probability of an aftershock of magnitude 4.0 or greater.

That 10% probability happened.

There was a 4.0 aftershock.

#22 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-05-14 03:37 PM | Reply

I have gone to two fundraisers here in silicon valley supporting Democrats and Joe Biden.
#18 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

"Things that never happened for 500 Alex."

#23 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-05-15 05:35 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1