In Michigan, the epitome of a battleground state, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (49%) has opened up a lead over Republican Mike Rogers (42%) among likely voters amid signs that the state's Democratic base has unified behind him, and that discouraged Republicans are checking out.

"Texas, which hasn't elected a Democrat in a statewide race in three decades, gives Democrat James Talarico (49%) a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton (43%) among likely voters. Talarico's bid benefits from deeply negative impressions of Paxton, as well as sizable support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who voted for Trump in 2024.

Early on, Maine was widely viewed as one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities this cycle, with Sen. Susan Collins the only Republican up for reelection in a state that voted Democratic in 2024.

But the race has remained a tight contest: The new poll of likely voters finds no clear leader between Collins (45%) and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (49%), even as the race has become squarely a referendum on Collins.

And in deep-red Kansas, there is no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton (49%) and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (45%), even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate.

Voters here largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are about Marshall more so than Hamilton."

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Dems would need to win 4 seats to take the Senate, which seems iffy.

Musk is spending millions in TX for the Pedo Protector there, and Kansas?

If we're really lucky, we might not be in the old Kansas anymore, Todo.

It sounds like the GOP's real problem is that their candidates are thieves and criminals, not that the Dems are so popular, which to me doesn't bode well given the theory of the devil you know vs the devil you don't voting; a lot of people are likely to want to keep the devil they know.