Stuart Stevens: What is it about the Democratic Party that engenders this kind of self-doubt and fear? At a moment when Democrats' instinct should mirror what Biden declared in a rally the day after the debate -- "When you are knocked down, you get back up" -- some in the party are seized by the urge to run, not fight. Think about how this would look: Hey, I guess Donald Trump is right; our guy isn't fit to be president. We'll give it another shot. Trust us, we''l get it right eventually. Madness.
Democrats can win a race against him by offering Americans the opposite: steady, calm, and confident leadership. Joe Biden has provided that. His record is arguably the most impressive of any first-term president since World War II. My advice to Democrats: Run on that record; don't run from one bad debate. Show a little swagger, not timidity.
Anyone who thinks the Democrats can dump Biden and win in November is out of their freaking mind. It would hand the election to Trump.
Biden winning the presidency? At this point, Dems are trying avoid Biden dragging down the House and Senate. ("Democrats fear 'MAGA trifecta' if Biden drags down House and Senate candidates" www.cnn.com).
Every incumbent president in the last 30 years had a lousy first debate. Even Obama in 2012. Yet I don't remember Mitt Romney becoming president. Does anybody else? Seems like I'd remember that. #6 | Posted by rcade
This was beyond lousy. It was embarrassing, like watching an elderly person not realize that he had soiled himself. Except this time it was on stage in front of millions.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied at 40%, suggesting that Biden has not lost ground since the debate [...] #5 | Posted by Corky
Meanwhile: "Trump Widens Lead to 6 pts After Biden's Debate Debacle" drudge.com
And for those in denial about Biden's chances, the swing-state table I posted earlier from a poll that LampLighter referenced. Biden wasn't doing well to begin with, but after the debate even New Mexico is in play.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1dttpiz/biden_plunges_in_swing_states_in_leaked/
And Pennsylvania? I guess they decided one mentally encumbered individual representing them meets their quota.
Focus on what actually matters. #27 | Posted by rcade
Winning. Winning is what matters. If not the presidency, the House or Senate to stifle Hair Furor. At least until Trump starts executing them as his official acts.
Dude, it is July 3. [...] #30 | Posted by rcade
I don't see it getting better for Joe. Even if he performs as well going forward as at his State of the Union, the damage has been done. People see him as an old man who has good days and bad days. And the bad days are really bad.
Unless he digs up 2019 Joe that he's kept in the back of his closet, of course. Don't think that Joe is around anymore, though.
Welp, according to BellRinger's comment here, it appears that replacing Joe in a number of states, including Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, would be difficult at this late date, if not impossible.
So I guess we're stuck with him.
Yay!
IF you think the Supreme Court won't rule in a way that screws Democrats when the case(s) end up on their doorstep, you are nuts:
Heritage Foundation working on election legal challenges in case Biden pulled from DNC nomination
At least three swing states " Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin " could restrict Biden's removal from the ballot
www.foxnews.com
Fred Wellman
@FPWellman
I've seen a lot of people telling me that this story means they think Biden is weak so they want him in the election. No...you're missing the goal here. What they are doing is declaring how they will conduct a coordinated lawfare campaign to screw the Democratic nominee.
First it will be this lawsuit. In close order various Republican AG's will sue the DNC on behalf of their citizens "who voted in good faith in the Primary for Joe Biden." Then they will launch coordinated campaigns to split the Democratic coalition. "See how they are treating Kamala?" "Why didn't they think California's governor leading the 3rd largest economy in the world should be nominee." it will be relentless and targeted to get people to stay home. Millions of dark money will go to third party candidates. Suddenly RFK Jr. will miraculously have the resources to get on every ballot...on and on and on.
They don't care who is on the ballot. They want us to spend time, money, and anger on each other and on defense so Trump simply strolls into the White House with 45% of the vote.
The Biden campaign needs to stop nevel gazing and get back in the fight. We all need to stop eating each other alive and remember the real enemy to our democracy is the one's cheering this on in Florida.
@#6 ... Every incumbent president in the last 30 years had a lousy first debate. Even Obama in 2012. ...
Poll numbers were different in 2012. Going into the October 3, 2012 debate, fmr Pres Obama had a three-to-four point lead. ( www.realclearpolling.com )
Compared to 2024 where Pres Biden seems to have been trailing fmr Pres Trump going into the debate. ( www.realclearpolling.com )
Plus, unlike Pres Biden, the debate performance did not seem to confirm what had been said about fmr Pres Obama leading up to the debate.
Will Pres Biden be able to have his poll numbers react in a similar manner to how the numbers reacted after the Obama-Romney debate?
I've not a clue. I'd say that tomorrow's interview may be a good starting point.
@#108 .... do you have an ap...something like "POLLS-R-US dot com ? ...
What I find useful is the page...
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolling.com
Data on the most recent polls (including links to the polls and, e.g., margin of error) are near the top of the page, with a short-term rolling average graph of the recent polls visible if you scroll down a bit.
Scroll down further, and older polls are shown.
@#123 ... That is what the lib in #93 clearly stated. ...
Was it clearly stated? I do not see that.
@#123 ... What alternate reality? ...
The one in which MAGA seems to reside. The one in which "alternate facts" rule.
Kellyanne Conway says Donald Trump's team has alternative facts.' Which pretty much says it all. (2017)
www.washingtonpost.com
... "Alternative facts are not facts. They are falsehoods," Chuck Todd tells Pres. Trump's counselor Kellyanne Conway this morning. ...
Do we really need to go into this again?
Trump Rants About Sharks, and Everyone Just Pretends It's Normal (June 2024)
www.theatlantic.com
... Hours before meeting with his probation officer about his recent felony convictions, a leading candidate for U.S. president went on a bizarre rant about sharks.[emphasis mine]
Sharks, Donald Trump claimed, were attacking more frequently than usual (not true) and posed a newfound risk because boats were being required to use batteries (not true), which would cause them to sink because they were too heavy (really, really not true -- the world's heaviest cruise ship, the Icon of the Seas, managed to stay afloat because of the laws of physics despite weighing more than 550 million pounds).
Trump, undeterred by truth or science, invoked his intellectual credentials by mentioning his "relationship to MIT."
(Trump's uncle was a professor at the university, pioneering rotational radiation therapy, which seems a somewhat tenuous connection for conferring shark- or battery-related expertise to his nephew.)
If Trump had been able to ask his uncle about the risks of being electrocuted by a boat battery because, as Trump put it, "there's a lot of electric current coming through that water," perhaps the professor would have informed him that high-capacity batteries would rapidly discharge in seawater and pose minuscule risk to humans because the water conducts electricity far better than human bodies do.
Sharks appear to have troubled Trump's mind for years. On July 4, 2013, Trump twice tweeted about them, saying, "Sorry folks, I'm just not a fan of sharks -- and don't worry, they will be around long after we are gone." Two minutes later, he followed that nugget of wisdom with: "Sharks are last on my list -- other than perhaps the losers and haters of the World!"
These deranged rants are tempting to laugh off. They're par for the course.
Trump is Trump. But Trump may also soon be the president of the United States. Imagine the response if Joe Biden had made the same rambling remarks, word for word. Consider this excerpt:
"I say, What would happen if the boat sank from its weight and you're in the boat and you have this tremendously powerful battery and the battery's underwater, and there's a shark that's approximately 10 yards over there?' By the way, a lot of shark attacks lately. Do you notice that?
A lot of shark ... I watched some guys justifying it today: Well, they weren't really that angry. They bit off the young lady's leg because of the fact that they were not hungry, but they misunderstood who she was.' These people are crazy."
Coming from Biden, that exact statement might have prompted calls from across the political spectrum for him to drop out of the race. From Trump, it was a blip that barely registered. ...
Wow.
Trump. Rally. Insanity. Lies. Lies. Lies even about the crowd size, even stooping so low as to use a Rod Stewart concert image from Rio de Janerio courtesy of that degenerate Roger Stone:
www.usatoday.com
Biden was standing on the balconey of the WH about 905pm tonight pretending to be in awe of fireworks with large shxxt stain on his lower right suit coat. His servant came out and whispered about it. The grandkids all came out on command and gave him cover from cameras as the servant cleaned him up. LOL. Will the media cover it?
Biden is more concerned about pride month than July 4th. Our country is in a funk because of Biden a leader who doesnt lead.
www.msn.com
" I think an argument can be made that the total crowd (as in live attendance + TV + internet) was much larger than Obama's."
It can, but it wasn't. Spicer specifically claimed IN PERSON was largest.
amp.theguardian.com
Spicer specifically said he regretted saying that.
time.com
But Clod is here, to lie to us, about what Spicer already admitted.
Spicergate, explained: the controversy about Trump's press secretary and crowd size (2017)
www.vox.com
... "This was the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period. Both in person and around the globe."
The new White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, introduced himself to the American people this weekend with these words " words that came after a series of tendentious factual claims about attendance at President Donald Trump's inauguration and that made a remarkable contrast with readily available photographic evidence.
Spicer's statement made for a jarring introduction to the new Trump administration, and he came in for a good deal of condemnation from reporters and mockery from observers of all political stripes. A hashtag called #SeanSpicerFacts, in which pictures of Spicer at the briefing were posted alongside humorous false claims, trended on Twitter.
Two days later, when he was pushed at Monday's first full press briefing, Spicer said he was "not" saying Trump had the largest in-person inaugural crowd.
Indeed, he argued that he had never made such a claim, saying that he was only referring to the combined in-person, TV, and streaming global audience as the largest.
This claim about the total audience was also quite questionable, and as the Weekly Standard's Michael Warren archly observed, "Why it took Spicer two days to make this clarification wasn't clear." But the shift seemed sufficient to satisfy many reporters, many of whom publicly praised Spicer's performance Monday.
At its heart, this squabble about crowd size may not seem particularly consequential.
But this dust-up has broader implications for how the new Trump administration is shaping up -- in how it will deal with the press, in whether it can be trusted to provide basic factual information, and in just how hard the press corps is going to push back. ...
@#155 ... Everyone with a room temperature IQ or higher knows Trump TOLD Spicer to make that claim. ...
Donald Trump Rally Crowd Size Claims Have One Major Problem (June 2024)
www.newsweek.com
... Donald Trump's claim about the crowd size at his Las Vegas rally has one major problem"the venue doesn't accommodate the number of people he touted were there. ...
Fact check: Trump falsely claims police turned away thousands' from Manhattan courthouse and that supporters can't get near' (April 2024)
... Former President Donald Trump is a famed exaggerator of the size of his crowds. For years, he has lied about how many supporters attended his presidential inauguration and numerous campaign rallies.[emphasis mine]
Now he's pushing a wildly inaccurate claim about how many supporters have attempted to show up at his first criminal trial -- and he's making additional false claims about security measures around the Manhattan courthouse, which he is baselessly blaming for keeping these supposed supporters away.
After The New York Times published a story that said Trump was unhappy with the meager crowd he saw when he arrived at the courthouse for opening statements on Monday, Trump posted on social media on Tuesday to deny the story, denigrate a Times reporter and make this claim: "Thousands of people were turned away from the Courthouse in Lower Manhattan by steel stanchions and police, literally blocks from the tiny side door from where I enter and leave. It is an armed camp to keep people away." ...
Trump inauguration crowd photos were edited after he intervened (2018)
www.theguardian.com
Etc., etc., etc., etc.
Yeah, fmr Pres Trump seems to have an issue about crowd sizes.
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