Heather Cox Richardson: This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report showing an abrupt reversal in the U.S. economy. Gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the total market value of goods and services, shrank from a healthy 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024 to -0.3% in the first quarter of 2025.
The economy Trump inherited was the envy of the world. Within weeks, consumer confidence was plummeting, businesses were pausing expansions and investors were questioning the safety of Treasuries. Forecasters debated which was more likely: a recession or stagflation. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...[image or embed]
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) April 29, 2025 at 7:20 AM
In other words, the statement in question contains some elements supported by economic data but also includes exaggerations and value judgments that cannot be verified through economic statistics alone. While certain components of the economy showed positive growth in Q1 2025, the overall GDP figure was negative, contradicting the claim that "every measure" is positive.
The impact of imports on GDP calculation is significant as claimed, though the specific dynamics are more complex than suggested. The prediction about future reversals lacks supporting evidence in the current data. Finally, while government spending did decline and contributed negatively to GDP as stated, the normative assessment of this as positive represents a value judgment rather than an economic fact.
The Q1 2025 GDP report presents a mixed economic picture with areas of strength in private domestic demand alongside challenges from trade and government sectors, all against a backdrop of rising inflation indicators.
Citations:
[1] www.bea.gov
[2] www.bea.gov
[3] www.advisorperspectives.com
[4] www.advisorperspectives.com
[5] www.insee.fr
[6] fred.stlouisfed.org
[7] www.bea.gov
[8] www.reuters.com
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[11] www.foxbusiness.com
[12] www.cnbc.com
[13] www.reddit.com
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[17] www.bea.gov
[18] bankingjournal.aba.com
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[20] www.forbes.com
[21] www.reddit.com
[22] www.bea.gov
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[25] www.businessinsider.com
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[27] assets.realclear.com
[28] www.washingtonpost.com
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[31] investor.honeywell.com
[32] cressetcapital.com
[33] investor.distributionsolutionsgroup.com
[34] www.atlantafed.org
[35] fred.stlouisfed.org
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[38] www.atlantafed.org
[39] apps.bea.gov
[40] static.poder360.com.br
[41] www.bea.gov
@#25
Retailers fear toy shortages at Christmas as tariffs freeze supply chain
retail.economictimes.indiatimes.com
... Toy makers, children's shops and specialty retailers are pausing orders for the winter holidays as the import taxes cascade through supply chains. Factories in China produce nearly 80 per cent of all toys and 90 per cent of Christmas goods sold in the United States.
The production of toys, Christmas trees and decorations is usually in full swing by now. It takes four to five months to manufacture, package and ship products to the United States. ...
But the alarm in the industry is palpable, with the companies predicting product shortages and higher prices.
Some business owners, citing how crucial holiday sales are to their bottom lines, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers. ...
Getting back on topic instead of the trolling that seems to want to deflect (why the apparent trolling need to deflect?)...
@#1 ... Trump says he'll blame Biden again for 2nd quarter GDP after blaming him for Q1 drop ...
www.cnbc.com
... Key Points
President Donald Trump blamed former President Joe Biden after new data showed U.S. gross domestic product contracting in the first quarter of 2025.
He suggested he will blame Biden for the second quarter, too.
His claim that the negative GDP and subsequent market declines were a result of Biden's policies is inaccurate.
...
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