Advertisement

Drudge Retort: The Other Side of the News
Thursday, May 01, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson: This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report showing an abrupt reversal in the U.S. economy. Gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the total market value of goods and services, shrank from a healthy 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024 to -0.3% in the first quarter of 2025.

More

Alternate links: Google News | Twitter

The economy Trump inherited was the envy of the world. Within weeks, consumer confidence was plummeting, businesses were pausing expansions and investors were questioning the safety of Treasuries. Forecasters debated which was more likely: a recession or stagflation. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...[image or embed]

— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) April 29, 2025 at 7:20 AM

Comments

Admin's note: Participants in this discussion must follow the site's moderation policy. Profanity will be filtered. Abusive conduct is not allowed.

The reversal is just getting started, Republicans!

Trump says he'll blame Biden again for 2nd quarter GDP after blaming him for Q1 drop
www.cnbc.com

#1 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-05-01 11:06 AM | Reply

Remember in January when Trump said the stock market was going up because of him?

Remember when he said this in September-October too before even being elected?

Now it's ALL Biden's fault.

#2 | Posted by Sycophant at 2025-05-01 11:18 AM | Reply

"Remember in January when Trump said the stock market was going up because of him?"

When it goes up it's because of Trump.
When it goes down it's because of Barack The Magic Negro.
Ask any Republican, they can confirm!

#3 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-05-01 11:22 AM | Reply

Trump is incapable of taking responsibility for anything he does and has proven it over and over all of his life. I'm not exactly sur what the nost accurate psychological term for his personality type is but I think that narcicist sociopath isn't too fsr off.

#4 | Posted by danni at 2025-05-01 11:56 AM | Reply

You only think it is a reversal if you are a total -------. Every measure which points to the real economy is green. The GDP number was suppressed by 5% due to inventory builds on imports (which reverses in the coming months) and cuts to government spending - which is a good thing.

#5 | Posted by ScottS at 2025-05-01 11:58 AM | Reply

Trump is incapable of taking responsibility for anything he does and has proven it over and over all of his life. I'm not exactly sur what the nost accurate psychological term for his personality type is but I think that narcicist sociopath isn't too fsr off.

#4 | Posted by danni at 2025-05-01 11:56 AM | Reply

Malignant Narcissist.

#6 | Posted by Alexandrite at 2025-05-01 12:01 PM | Reply

"Every measure which points to the real economy is green."

Only if you're using Republican Math

241,000 new jobless claims this week, up from last week, and more than expected.

What do you think will happen when the April numbers come out on Monday?

And if tariffs are so good, so beautiful...why doesn't D2H want America to see it every time they make an Amazon purchase?

#7 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-05-01 12:04 PM | Reply

Every measure which points to the real economy is green.

#5 | POSTED BY SCOTTS

Lying doesn't shame you.

#8 | Posted by Zed at 2025-05-01 12:05 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Every measure which points to the real economy is green.

#5 | POSTED BY SCOTTS

Lying doesn't shame you.

Shameless lying is a requirement for being a full fledged maga cult member.


#9 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-05-01 12:12 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"Every measure which points to the real economy is green."

Do we get to see the indicators?

#10 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-05-01 12:17 PM | Reply

"
UPS cutting 20,000 jobs amid reduction in Amazon shipments"

www.cbsnews.com

They are't alone and remember, all these layoffs will be on top of DOGE's crazy firing of thousands of government employees? Recession coming? George W. Bush is thrilled that he may lose the title of worst President in history.

#11 | Posted by danni at 2025-05-01 12:24 PM | Reply

I think the majority of Americans are tired of this sort of winning, which feels a lot like losing...

#12 | Posted by catdog at 2025-05-01 12:26 PM | Reply

US equity futures are sharply higher, erasing all of April's losses on blowout earnings from MSFT and META, and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 1.2% to 5655, the highest level since before Trump's Liberation Day announcement and pointing to an eighth consecutive session of gains for the cash index; Nasdaq futures gained 1.7%, as META and MSFT added +6.3% and +7.8%, respectively; most Mag 7 names, NVDA (3.7%) and semis are higher given META's CapEx increase and MSFT's reiteration on CapEx guidance. The dollar is higher after the BOJ finally flipped dovish and slashed its growth target pushing USDJPY to 144.5 this morning. It's light on overnight news as most of Europe is closed today ex-UK along with China; US/Ukraine signed an agreement over the country's natural resources, UK Manf PMI printed better but remained in contraction, and Trump reiterated that there is a "very good chance" of a deal with China

#13 | Posted by chiligordo at 2025-05-01 12:39 PM | Reply

"As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 1.2% to 5655, the highest level since before Trump's Liberation Day announcement"

Hahaha, that's your big win! We're almost out of the hole Trump dug.

Clown World.

#14 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-05-01 12:40 PM | Reply

and Trump reiterated that there is a "very good chance" of a deal with China

#13 | Posted by chiligordo

That's the guy who said he had mindblowing proof that obama's birth certificate was fake right?

#15 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2025-05-01 01:05 PM | Reply

#5

Analysis of U.S. Economic Statement: GDP Decline in Q1 2025

The recently released U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data provides important context for evaluating claims about the Q1 2025 economic performance. The statement in question contains several assertions about the U.S. economy that require careful examination against official economic data. This analysis will evaluate each claim using the latest GDP advance estimate and related economic indicators.

Overview of Q1 2025 GDP Performance

The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that U.S. real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024[1]. This represents the first contraction in the U.S. economy in three years[3]. The decrease primarily reflected an increase in imports (which subtract from GDP) and a decrease in government spending, partially offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports[1].

The component breakdown reveals a more nuanced picture than the headline figure suggests:
- Personal consumption expenditures contributed +1.21 percentage points (though down from Q4 2024)[4]
- Gross private domestic investment contributed +3.60 percentage points (up from Q4 2024)[4]
- Net exports of goods and services contributed -4.83 percentage points (down from Q4)[4]
- Government consumption expenditures contributed -0.25 percentage points[4]

Examining the "Real Economy" Components

The statement claims that "every measure which points to the real economy is green." This assertion requires careful scrutiny against the actual data.

While the overall GDP figure was negative (-0.3%), several underlying components did show positive growth. Consumer spending increased, contributing positively to GDP growth despite a deceleration from the previous quarter[1][2]. The BEA reports that "real final sales to private domestic purchasers," which combines consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased by 3.0% in Q1, slightly higher than the 4th quarter's 2.9%[2].

#16 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2025-05-01 01:05 PM | Reply

However, the characterization that "every measure" is positive overstates the case. The economy as a whole contracted as measured by real GDP, which is generally considered the broadest measure of economic activity[3]. Additionally, inflation indicators showed concerning upward movement, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increasing 3.6%, up from 2.4% in the previous quarter[1][2].

Import Dynamics and GDP Calculation

The statement claims "GDP number was suppressed by 5% due to inventory builds on imports." This claim contains elements of truth but requires clarification.

According to the data, net exports did indeed contribute negatively to GDP growth at -4.83 percentage points[4], which is close to the "5%" figure mentioned. The BEA specifically notes that the decrease in real GDP "primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP"[1].

The BEA explains that within imports, "the increase primarily reflected an increase in imported goods, led by consumer goods, except food and automotive (mainly medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical preparations, including vitamins); and by capital goods, except automotive (mainly computers, peripherals, and parts)"[2].

Regarding inventory investment, the BEA notes: "The largest contributor to the increase in investment was private inventory investment, led by an increase in wholesale trade (notably, drugs and sundries). The estimates of private inventory investment were based primarily on Census Bureau inventory book value data and a BEA adjustment in March to account for a notable increase in imports"[2].

Future Reversal Claims

The statement asserts that the negative impact on GDP "reverses in the coming months." None of the search results provide forward-looking projections or evidence to support this claim of future reversal[1][2][3][4]. Economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty, and the available data focuses on reporting past performance rather than making predictions.

Government Spending Impact

The statement correctly identifies that cuts to government spending contributed to the GDP decline. Government consumption expenditures contributed -0.25 percentage points to GDP growth[4]. The BEA specifies that "the decrease in government spending reflected a decrease in federal government spending (led by defense consumption expenditures) that was partly offset by an increase in state and local government spending"[2].

Whether this decline in government spending is "a good thing" as claimed is a normative judgment that involves economic, fiscal, and political considerations beyond what can be evaluated with purely economic data.

#17 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2025-05-01 01:06 PM | Reply

In other words, the statement in question contains some elements supported by economic data but also includes exaggerations and value judgments that cannot be verified through economic statistics alone. While certain components of the economy showed positive growth in Q1 2025, the overall GDP figure was negative, contradicting the claim that "every measure" is positive.

The impact of imports on GDP calculation is significant as claimed, though the specific dynamics are more complex than suggested. The prediction about future reversals lacks supporting evidence in the current data. Finally, while government spending did decline and contributed negatively to GDP as stated, the normative assessment of this as positive represents a value judgment rather than an economic fact.

The Q1 2025 GDP report presents a mixed economic picture with areas of strength in private domestic demand alongside challenges from trade and government sectors, all against a backdrop of rising inflation indicators.

Citations:
[1]
www.bea.gov
[2] www.bea.gov
[3] www.advisorperspectives.com
[4] www.advisorperspectives.com
[5] www.insee.fr
[6] fred.stlouisfed.org
[7] www.bea.gov
[8] www.reuters.com
[9] www.bea.gov
[10] www.bea.gov
[11] www.foxbusiness.com

#18 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2025-05-01 01:06 PM | Reply

"with areas of strength in private domestic demand..."

Translation: the next set of pre-tariff numbers will include everyone who is currently stocking up. "See, that recession didn't last long" will be claimed ad nauseam...

...then purchasing will plummet.

#19 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-05-01 01:10 PM | Reply

[12] www.cnbc.com
[13] www.reddit.com
[14] www.cbsnews.com
[15] www.gelliottmorris.com
[16] www.usatoday.com
[17] www.bea.gov
[18] bankingjournal.aba.com
[19] https://www.bea.gov
[20] www.forbes.com
[21] www.reddit.com
[22] www.bea.gov
[23] www.bea.gov
[24] www.reuters.com
[25] www.businessinsider.com
[26] www.asm.com
[27] assets.realclear.com
[28] www.washingtonpost.com
[29] www.mayberryinv.com
[30] www.washingtonpost.com
[31] investor.honeywell.com
[32] cressetcapital.com
[33] investor.distributionsolutionsgroup.com
[34] www.atlantafed.org
[35] fred.stlouisfed.org
[36] fred.stlouisfed.org
[37] www.bea.gov
[38] www.atlantafed.org
[39] apps.bea.gov
[40] static.poder360.com.br
[41] www.bea.gov

#20 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2025-05-01 01:24 PM | Reply

Do we get to see the indicators?

#10 | POSTED BY SNOOFY

Nope. Just like you won't get to see any of the deals the "200 countries" that "have 100% " made deals with Trumpy.

#21 | Posted by donnerboy at 2025-05-01 01:32 PM | Reply

China is NOT in negotiations with the U.S. over tariffs despite what Trump says.

The WH is calling THEM, and they don't want to talk.

#22 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2025-05-01 01:52 PM | Reply

FAFO MAGAT scum

#23 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-05-01 02:19 PM | Reply

@#22 ... China is NOT in negotiations with the U.S. over tariffs despite what Trump says.

The WH is calling THEM, and they don't want to talk. ...

We're getting close to the time (if we're not there already) when stores place their orders for the Christmas toys.

China may be playing the long game, waiting for the effects of the Trump tariffs to make a significant effect upon what can be offered to purchase in the stores.

And then there are the purchase of school supplies and new clothing for school over the summer. Those shipments should have aalready started to arrive from China.

#24 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-05-01 04:07 PM | Reply

"We're getting close to the time (if we're not there already) when stores place their orders for the Christmas toys."

^
There will be no Black Friday this year.

#25 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-05-01 04:14 PM | Reply

@#25

Retailers fear toy shortages at Christmas as tariffs freeze supply chain
retail.economictimes.indiatimes.com

... Toy makers, children's shops and specialty retailers are pausing orders for the winter holidays as the import taxes cascade through supply chains. Factories in China produce nearly 80 per cent of all toys and 90 per cent of Christmas goods sold in the United States.

The production of toys, Christmas trees and decorations is usually in full swing by now. It takes four to five months to manufacture, package and ship products to the United States. ...

But the alarm in the industry is palpable, with the companies predicting product shortages and higher prices.

Some business owners, citing how crucial holiday sales are to their bottom lines, are consulting bankruptcy lawyers. ...



#26 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-05-01 04:19 PM | Reply

There will be no Black Friday this year.

#25 | Posted by snoofy

"Black Friday? That some WOKE shit right there. ALL WHITE FRIDAY is the shit!"

- Country Fuck Bo-ass, the WHITEST BLACK DUDE EVER

#27 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-05-01 04:41 PM | Reply

@#27 ... "Black Friday? That some WOKE shit right there. ...

It's called Black Friday because that's the time when the retailers' book balance goes from red (i.e., losses) to black (i.e., profits) because of all the Christmas shopping.


#28 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-05-01 05:45 PM | Reply

The following HTML tags are allowed in comments: a href, b, i, p, br, ul, ol, li and blockquote. Others will be stripped out. Participants in this discussion must follow the site's moderation policy. Profanity will be filtered. Abusive conduct is not allowed.

Anyone can join this site and make comments. To post this comment, you must sign it with your Drudge Retort username. If you can't remember your username or password, use the lost password form to request it.
Username:
Password:

Home | Breaking News | Comments | User Blogs | Stats | Back Page | RSS Feed | RSS Spec | DMCA Compliance | Privacy

Drudge Retort