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Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Poll: Harris Leads Trump 44% to 42% in US Presidential Race

Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.

Posted by censored at 06:33 PM | 37 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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Admin's note: Participants in this discussion must follow the site's moderation policy. Profanity will be filtered. Abusive conduct is not allowed.

Hope Old Man Trump has his diapers on when he sees this.

#1 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-23 02:44 PM | Reply

Don't count your chickens.

Hillary was beating Trump in the polls as well.

Democrats are doing a bit too much celebrating right now and it's very prematurely.

#2 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-07-23 02:49 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

This is headed exactly where the media wants it to go. It's going to be an extremely tight race. It's going to come down to the same five or six states

#3 | Posted by eberly at 2024-07-23 02:51 PM | Reply

Democrats are doing a bit too much celebrating right now and it's very prematurely.

#2 | POSTED BY CLOWNSHACK

Everyone know what's at stake.

Last Saturday, three days ago, Trump was over Biden by three points.

#4 | Posted by Zed at 2024-07-23 02:52 PM | Reply

"Hillary was beating Trump in the national polls as well." Yep.
Winning the popular vote doesn't get you much.
I am anxiously waiting the swing state polling and to see if other states that had moved away from Biden will come back
Everything is riding on this election.

#5 | Posted by YAV at 2024-07-23 02:54 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

It's going to come down to the same five or six states

Always does.

Things could shift.

California went to Reagan.

Georgia went to Biden.

But for the most part. There's usually like four states that determine the election.

#6 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-07-23 03:01 PM | Reply

Last Saturday, three days ago, Trump was over Biden by three points. #4 | Posted by Zed

Yeah, I'm just pleased to see numbers favoring Dems for a change. Not taking anything for granted.

For me, the best part is that Trump has been attacking Biden for his age while Trump was only three years younger. And now, with Joe dropping out, "Donald Trump, 78, Is the Oldest Presidential Nominee in U.S. History" www.msn.com

So now the press can hammer on Geezer Trump for a few months about his dementia and senior issues. Maybe Kamala can run some ads in swing states using Trumps own words against him.

#7 | Posted by censored at 2024-07-23 03:40 PM | Reply

three days ago, Trump was over Biden by three points.
#4 | POSTED BY ZED

I believe Biden would have turned it around.

The party turned on him.

But. Probably for the best. Who know if he'll live until November.

#8 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-07-23 03:44 PM | Reply

Right winger have been focusing their hatred, lies and criminal claims against Biden for so long that they seem to lack the passion, the energy, and the same level of desire to go after Harris in the same manner. It's a lot of work for Republicans to now make up as much garbage about Harris as they did with Biden. They're exhausted. Having so much hatred has worn them out. In fact, many GOPhers feel that now that they have ousted Biden, there is no need to battle on against Harris with the same ferocity and vitriol. Re-motivating the hate-filled base will take some time.

#9 | Posted by moder8 at 2024-07-23 04:15 PM | Reply

hate-filled base will take some time.
#9 | POSTED BY MODER8

Time is on their side. And don't underestimate the motivation behind racist ideology.

#10 | Posted by rstybeach11 at 2024-07-23 04:22 PM | Reply

#11

www.youtube.com

#12 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-23 07:46 PM | Reply

From the cited article...

... The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters. ...

#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 07:52 PM | Reply

Link to the poll...
www.ipsos.com

... The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted immediately after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, shows that if Harris were to be the Democratic nominee, the race between her and Republican nominee Donald Trump would be too close to call.

A strong majority of Americans support Biden stepping out the of the 2024 race and a majority believes he should finish out the term as president.

A strong majority of Democrats support Harris pursuing the nomination and believe the Democratic party should rally around her so she can build a campaign.

Since Biden's announcement that he is no longer running for president and the nomination of Republican Senator J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, both Vance and Harris have seen a jump in their favorability ratings among Americans. ...

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted July 22-23, 2024, by Ipsos for Reuters using the probability-based KnowledgePanel. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,241 general population adults age 18 or older in the United States. The sample includes 1,018 registered voters, 426 Democrats, 376 Republicans, and 341 Independents.

The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. ...


#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 07:56 PM | Reply

@#11 ... sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents. ..

Partisan affiliations of registered voters
ballotpedia.org

... As of March 2024, 45 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. ...

A total of 35.7 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, ...

A total of 32.5 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated ...


Thanks for highlighting that there seems to be more Democrat registered voters than Republican registered voters.


#16 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 08:01 PM | Reply

- I'm saying I want to put a honeymoon bump in her belly

What's that old saying? Oh yeah.... Republican men are pigs.

#19 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-23 08:04 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#15 ... #13 did you have a point?

btw why use yahoo link when source actual is available? ...

All I did in #13 was note what the cited article stated. As I stated quite clearly in my comment.

I then went off to local the actual Ipsos survey webpage, which I noted in my #14, posted before your #15.


What else yer got?

#20 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 08:04 PM | Reply

Another sock puppet account ready to go when this one gets banned.

#21 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-07-23 08:34 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

JD wishes he had a honeymoon bump or even a honeymoon blip:

(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten

JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating.

Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican.

x.com

In case you can't follow the link:

VP nominees' net favorable rating immediately after convention

Average since 2020 +19

Lowest ever JD Vance -6

#22 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-07-23 09:55 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#23... or you, sockpuppet. But thanks for admitting what you are.

I never have understood, though, why even a semi-conscious rwinger like yourself would want to keep coming back to any place they weren't wanted because they couldn't follow the few rulz.

#24 | Posted by Corky at 2024-07-23 10:12 PM | Reply

@#25 ... You actually make a point re: Dems are oversampled because they are more common in total. ...

Oversampled? How so? Please be specific, with data, not unsubstantiated assertions.

To me it looks like the polling was reasonably representative.

Got any facts to counter that?


#26 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 10:19 PM | Reply

If they're "more common in total", then they aren't oversampled. They are sampled appropriately.

#27 | Posted by YAV at 2024-07-23 10:32 PM | Reply

@#27 ... If they're "more common in total", then they aren't oversampled. They are sampled appropriately. ...

Isn't it interesting when an alias posts a comment that contradicts itself, and in the case of #25, even in the same sentence?


Wow.


#29 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 10:44 PM | Reply

@#28 ... Remember- ALL of Ghislaine's biggest customers are still in positions of power. ...

Nice attempted fall-back position.

But quite irrelevant to the thread.

What else yer got?


#30 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 10:45 PM | Reply

@#31 ... the sampling error is larger than the spread: ...

Yup.

So, what's yer point?

I have often talked about the margin of error in polls. Oh so often.

Indeed, even recently mentioning that fmr Pres Trump's lead in critical swing states seems to be pulling out of the quagmire of the margin of error.

So, yeah, welcome to realizing that the margin of error matters.


So, I'll ask again, what's yer point?


#32 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-23 11:18 PM | Reply

As usual, the race will likely come down to the Rust Belt states.
MI, PA, OH, WI...

Dems generally can't win without getting at least 3 out of those 4 states.

Although, and here's where it gets interesting, if Harris can peel
back both AZ and GA from the GOP, and she chooses that Governor from NC
as a running mate, then the math gets far more favorable for a Dem win
in the White House.

#33 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-07-24 07:07 AM | Reply

It's a good start. Now let's see the Democrats make progress in places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada & Arizona.

Democracy & unity vs. Chaos and autocracy? I choose the first option.

#34 | Posted by Augustine at 2024-07-24 08:20 AM | Reply

As always, it's the electoral college that wins the race, not the popular vote. So the question should be, can Harris carry the states that give her the coveted 270?

Who she picks as her V.P running mate is crucial.

Aside from that, with her energy, money and people talent, I'm going to guess the poll numbers (for whatever they're worth) are going to gradually shift in her favor. Perhaps even to the mid-fifties for Harris compared to the low/mid 40's for Trump, as Election Day looms on the horizon.

Assuming, of course that the Secret Service steps up its game.

As Trump once said, he knows a lot of bad people . . . keeping in mind as well that some of them are Supreme Court Justices. I don't put anything past him.

Speaker Johnson is already on the job, threatening post-election lawsuits before the first vote is cast.

And J.D. Vance has already been dispatched to the campaign trail with his vile race card and ------ accusations.

#35 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-07-24 09:34 AM | Reply

JD Vance is a one-pony joke. Mr. Crypto with his homespun tale that will fool some, while his favoritism of anti-consumer protections and big leveraged fund tech investors like himself screws the little folk. He & his now blond haired boorish idol will be petty and insulting and slanderous against all opponents, while imagining that they are Jesus and Moses incarnate. Give us a break!

#36 | Posted by Augustine at 2024-07-24 03:49 PM | Reply

Even Russian state TV is mocking Trump's pick of Vance:

NEWSWEEK

In front of a screen showing Vance at a Republican rally in Michigan, Solovyov prompted laughter from his guests when he suggested the former president chose his running mate "to make sure that America prays for Trump to live."

Meanwhile, Andrey Sidorov from Moscow State University, said Vance calling his current boss "Hitler" in 2016 showed how "he will quickly switch to any side."

"God forbid something happens to him and his vice president steps in," Solovyov said, chuckling at the prospect of Trump not making it to the end of his term, adding: "It would not be good for anybody."

Another guest, political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky, chimed in with his take, saying: "You don't pick this kind of a VP to get more votes."

www.msn.com

#37 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-07-24 03:53 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Loved that Muscovite analyst's comment, "You don't take this kind of VP candidate to get more votes."

The Ukrainians don't like Vance for telling them to give in to Russia, and the Russians don't like Vance, cause he's just bad news. (Maybe Vance will bow out so Trump can get a do-over?)

#38 | Posted by Augustine at 2024-07-24 09:01 PM | Reply

You wonder about GOP VPOTUS picks over the last several years: Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, and now redneck J Dunce Vance. No wonder the Russian analyst said what he said: #45 made a strategic blunder. Women will propel the imminent Blue Tsunami, along with people of color, and all hard-working tax-paying Americans who don't give a darn about Iran.

And Joe Biden outfoxed #45 by his timed withdrawal after the RNC convention where the GOP blowhards wasted all their airtime and ammunition on a diversionary target.

#39 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2024-07-24 09:23 PM | Reply

"As always, it's the electoral college that wins the race, not the popular vote."

I'm gonna be contrarian and say it's neither. TURNOUT wins the race. The "undecided" voters aren't choosing between Harris and Trump, they are too far apart for that. They are deciding whether they will vote at all. (Or choose a third party candidate) I worked on a campaign analyzing voter data. I was shocked to see the level of voter apathy.

#40 | Posted by Miranda7 at 2024-07-25 12:03 PM | Reply

They are deciding whether they will vote at all. (Or choose a third party candidate) I worked on a campaign analyzing voter data. I was shocked to see the level of voter apathy.

#40 | POSTED BY MIRANDA7

Yup. And they are deciding right now.

40,000 new voters registered in 48 hours after Kamala announced.

100,000 new democratic campaign volunteers in the 48 hours after the Kamala announcement.

Womp! Womp!

#41 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-07-25 12:19 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Yet the RCP average went from +1.8 Trump over Harris, to Trump +2.1

#42 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-07-25 02:57 PM | Reply

BREAKING NEWS
Kamala Harris has narrowed the gap against Donald Trump, a new Times/Siena poll found. He now has a one-point lead among likely voters.
New York Times just now.

This is right after the RNC Convention. Not sure how tRump gets a bUmp.
Harris' favorability has also increased substantially in the same poll.

#43 | Posted by YAV at 2024-07-25 03:44 PM | Reply

@#42 ... Yet the RCP average went from +1.8 Trump over Harris, to Trump +2.1

Rassmussen's +7 had a lot to do with that bump. :)

Current tally shows Trump +1.9.

www.realclearpolling.com

That aside, I'm waiting a week or two before I start looking more seriously at polling results.




#44 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-07-25 03:57 PM | Reply

"Current tally shows Trump +1.9."

With no adjustments for P.O.'d women.

How did that turn out for, say OH06? (Checks notes ... ) A Trump +29 district went to the Republican ... by single digits. Polls were waaaaay off.

I basically look at the current totals, and add 5pts to the Dem side.

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.

#45 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-07-25 04:23 PM | Reply

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