Massive Shift in Trump-Harris Swing State Polling

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

It's a a statistical dead heat given the margins of error. But Kamala Harris has done something Joe Biden hadn't been able to do when he was still running against Donald Trump: outperform him in the swing states that will likely decide November's election.

Posted by qcp at 07:32 PM | 30 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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2024 GE: Bloomberg/Morning Consult MICHIGAN ... Harris: 53% (+11) Trump: 42% ARIZONA ... Harris: 49% (+2) Trump: 47% WISCONSIN ... Harris: 49% (+2) Trump: 47% "NEVADA ... Harris: 47% (+2) Trump: 45% "GEORGIA ... Harris: 47% (=) Trump: 47% " ... pic.twitter.com/esZU56lcjC
" InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 30, 2024

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Good job! I was just going to post this.
This is excellent news for patriots and defenders of liberty, freedom and our republic!

#1 | Posted by YAV at 2024-07-31 11:57 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll:
Harris standing versus Trump:
Michigan +11
Arizona +2
Wisconsin +2
Nevada +2
Georgia 0 (tie)
Pennsylvania -4
North Carolina -2

#2 | Posted by YAV at 2024-07-31 12:17 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Trum's motivation to cheat in the election and/or stage a second coup has gone up exponentially.

#3 | Posted by Zed at 2024-07-31 12:28 PM | Reply

Bluewiggles will avoid this thread like it was the plague.

Oops. Bad example for maga maroons.

#4 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-07-31 12:37 PM | Reply

She's up by even more. The polls are still manipulated towards Trump.
I think she's up by 10 or more in most swing states. Michigan might be as high as +15 for her. Which means it's not a swing state any more.

Media needs their horserace though. Non MAGA and new young voters are severely underweighted in the polling.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, this is going to be a blue tsunami.
Harris is going to take all the swing states plus a few red ones, their will be more than a few GOP surprise losses in Congress as well.

#5 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-07-31 07:57 PM | Reply

Avoid what Donner? Polls are polls, I do have serious doubts on the MI poll having that dramatic of a swing.

#6 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-07-31 07:59 PM | Reply

Don't think for a minute that Trump isn't reaching deep into his bag of dirty tricks to offset the threat Harris poses to his campaign.

Word is that he's going to use threats and coercion to force some states to outright refuse to certify a Harris win.

#7 | Posted by Twinpac at 2024-07-31 09:27 PM | Reply

Twinpac, then that means war. If Opus Dei and the rest of the Project2025 wights that own the republican party think that they can steal the Republic and all of the rest of use will just roll over, they have a surprise coming.

#8 | Posted by Killjoy at 2024-07-31 09:50 PM | Reply

My biggest concern is that the Republicans will mess with the counting and certifying. They have been prepping that since 2020

#9 | Posted by truthhurts at 2024-07-31 09:55 PM | Reply

I don't know what will happren but I think it will be a dramatic change either for better if Democrats prevail or much worse if we lose.I can't remember an election with so much at stake nor a time when the Republican Party was so cultlike.

#10 | Posted by danni at 2024-07-31 11:18 PM | Reply

Conventions always give the candidate a bounce. Trump had his convention and he went down.
Harris hasn't had her convention yet.

VP candidates are picked to bring something to the race. Vance brought negative poll numbers and investigative journalists find something new on him every few hours.

Harris hasn't even picked her candidate yet but every name mentioned brings a ton of decency and hard work and accomplishment. And Democrats tend to know how to vet people.

#11 | Posted by prius04 at 2024-07-31 11:31 PM | Reply

DANNI

Reagan inspired devotion from Republicans to a near mythic level. Calls to carve him into Mt. Rushmore, etc.

But the GOP had decent men in Congress back then, patriots. They and Reagan would be rolling in their graves at what it's become.

#12 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-07-31 11:47 PM | Reply

I've looked at the data myself and if Harris improves at the same rate for another week she will have every state that Biden won.

#13 | Posted by Tor at 2024-07-31 11:48 PM | Reply

This is just a poll and we all know how inaccurate they've been in the last few election cycles. Trump always outperforms the polls since Maga are reluctant to participate. It's a dead heat. Lots of hard work ahead. Anything can happen in 3 months. Just the begining of the endless dirty tricks and lies to come that need to be met immediately and head on.

#14 | Posted by AlternateFacts at 2024-08-01 01:11 AM | Reply

RCP General Election poll has fmr Pres Trump dropping to a 1.2% lead, down from 3.1% just a couple weeks ago.

Back into the margin of error territory.

#15 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-08-01 12:35 PM | Reply

@#14 ... we all know how inaccurate they've been in the last few election cycles. ...

Do "we all" know that?

#16 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-08-01 12:52 PM | Reply

#15

I think once she makes her VP choice, the numbers will go up in her favor even more.

Both VP candidates (top VP candidates?) are good choices. IMO Mark Kelly is a better choice because of his record, and the fact that he is not jewish. KH seems to be doing OK in PN, so Shapiro might not be necessary to grab a few more EC votes. She is down in AZ though, and Kelly would likely improve her position there.

#17 | Posted by madbomber at 2024-08-01 01:18 PM | Reply

KH seems to be doing OK in PN, so Shapiro might not be necessary to grab a few more EC votes. She is down in AZ though, and Kelly would likely improve her position there.

Not saying that the pick won't be Kelly, but you've got the states' importance backward. Harris can win numerous ways and still lose Arizona, but if she loses PA, she has to win every other battleground state in order to reach 270.

Pennsylvania is the absolute key to victory for either candidate outside of Trump being upset in Florida or Texas - neither of which is likely to happen.

#18 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-08-01 01:25 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

#18

I don't disagree with you on the number of EC votes in each state, but KH seems to be polling reasonably well in PN even without picking a VP. And I don't think many PN Dems are going to note vote is Shapiro is not her choice.

Anyway...I'm sure they have hundreds of data scientists working through all the different possible outcome to determine which potential pick will provide the most benefit.

#19 | Posted by madbomber at 2024-08-01 01:53 PM | Reply

And Bloomberg is a heavily right leaning pollster...

#20 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-08-01 02:13 PM | Reply

Trump always outperforms the polls since Maga are reluctant to participate.

Quite the opposite. Trump and MAGA have woefully underperformed every election from 2018 on, with overall performance worsening every time.

It's like you slept from Dec 2016 until now.

#21 | Posted by jpw at 2024-08-01 02:15 PM | Reply

Trump always outperforms the polls since Maga are reluctant to participate.

Such a crock of shizzle.

www.newsweek.com

"However, a number of political consultants and Democratic figures noted that this is the fourth result in which Trump "underperformed" in the Republican primary season as he did not beat Haley by as much as the polls had indicated.

According to FiveThirtyEight's average poll tracker, Trump's lead in Michigan was a resounding 78.7 percent as of Monday night, ahead of Haley by 57 points. The final Emerson College survey released just prior to Tuesday's election suggested Trump would beat Haley by a margin of 52 percentage points, 76 to 24.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Democratic strategist Tom Bonier said: "Trump's 42 point margin in Michigan fell 15 points short of the final 538 poll average. He continues to underperform.""

#22 | Posted by Nixon at 2024-08-01 02:27 PM | Reply

'RCP General Election poll has fmr Pres Trump dropping to a 1.2% lead, down from 3.1%"

That would only matter in a nationwide vote contest. In the swing states, where it will matter, Harris has seen gains everywhere, and now leads most of them.

"Trump ... continues to underperform."

None of the polling models account for what will be the biggest driver come Roevember: pissed-off women. The first stunner will be when Mercasel gets called at 7pm eastern.

#23 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-08-01 02:57 PM | Reply

"pissed-off women"

Those guys who believe Dobbs will be a long-forgotten memory come November...

..have never been in a long-term relationship!

#24 | Posted by Danforth at 2024-08-01 02:59 PM | Reply

@#23 ... That would only matter in a nationwide vote contest. ...

I agree.

I've often noted that general election poll result, though, more for its trending than anything else.

#25 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-08-01 03:16 PM | Reply

#19

Tea leaves reading:

A spokesman for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) said the governor's trip this weekend to the Hamptons on Long Island, which was planned "several weeks ago and included several fundraisers for his own campaign committee," has been canceled because "his schedule has changed."

Shapiro is believed to be on the list of potential running mates for Vice President Harris. She is expected to announce her pick this weekend.

www.washingtonpost.com

#26 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-08-01 03:30 PM | Reply

I can't remember an election with so much at stake nor a time when the Republican Party was so cultlike.

#10 | POSTED BY DANNI AT 2024-07-31 11:18 PM | FLAG: YEP
They need an 8 year vacation to shed some dead weight...grow some nads and find a worthwhile platform to run on that doesn't involve political dystopian portents and a ---- agenda.

#27 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2024-08-02 02:16 PM | Reply

Then maybe they might be worthy again.

#28 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2024-08-02 02:16 PM | Reply

Don't think for a minute that Trump isn't reaching deep into his bag of dirty tricks to offset the threat Harris poses to his campaign.

Word is that he's going to use threats and coercion to force some states to outright refuse to certify a Harris win.

#7 | POSTED BY TWINPAC

Oh they will try some shenanigans, but they will fail badly
Like usual. The not certifying thing will fall flat on its face when the folks running interference are facing jail/prison for their criminal acts. Marc Elias and his team are already for it and ready to hit the ground running she it's attempted.

They tried the non certification thing in 2020 in Arizona, and once they threatened the threatened the perpetrators with prison they decided to certify, they certified.

#29 | Posted by a_monson at 2024-08-02 06:56 PM | Reply

#Don'tBelieveTheHype

#GoVote

#30 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-08-02 06:57 PM | Reply