Ummmm, So

US bombs Iran's Kharg Island
US President Donald Trump has announced that the country's military has bombed military installations on Iran's Kharg Island, close to the Strait of Hormuz, as the war escalates " and as constraints on energy flows have deepened a global economic crisis.

"The United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran's crown jewel, Kharg Island," Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Trump, however, said that the US had so far avoided hitting Iran's oil infrastructure on the island.

This is not good

Expect heavy retaliation against Israeli and Gulf State oil resources

Only Piggy could claim we both hit and didn't hit Iran's oil infrastructure

Cause know that Kharg Island is where Iran pumps its oil.

And after 5 on friday post to avoid spooking markets

And is this a precursor to marine invasion???

ARRRRGGGHHHHH

So, yeah, Trump has very limited options, except the obvious trap-escalation.

Escalation in this situation is doomed to fail.

And the nuclear question is there and not going away.

China, so far, hasn't been hurt too badly so they aren't currently incentivized to get involved actively (and lack the power projection needed-currently)

Russia is LOVING this war as they are truly the one unalloyed winner in all of this.

But realize China and Russia are aiding Iran. I wonder what Trump will say to Xi is a couple of weeks.

We could already be in WW 3.

And we need to talk about the mentality of our mad king.

First, Trump is insane

Second, it is highly likely he is not being informed of or understands the negative implications of this war or his limited range of options. He is surrounded by sycophants who won't tell him the truth.

Third, he will only react to major negative impacts, like the stock market crashing

Fourth, he has repeatedly questioned why we don't use nukes

Fifth, most of his advisors are wholly incompetent (Hegseth) or downright sociopathic (Miller) or over their head (Caine)

Trump seems to think he can shape reality with his lies. Unfortunately, he has been successful with that strategy (politically) for a very long time. He thinks he can materialize victory out of his mouth.

The problem is that Iran is not the republican party or the American voters, they are a rational actor who holds a tremendous advantage.

And Trump's TACO is unlikely to work. That would require a fig leaf of "winning"

I can see him trying to reach an agreement with Iran so he can extricate himself from this mess

But Iran has near ZERO reason to agree to anything.

They are winning. They are in control of this war/

They WILL demand a great deal to assure that Israel and the US isn't back in 6 to 12 months attacking them again.

I remind you we had an agreement with them which we unilaterally withdrew from, we attacked them TWICE in the middle of negotiations. TWICE

AND OH YEAH WE MURDERED THEIR LEADER WHO HAPPENS TO BE THE TOP GUY IN THE SHIA RELIGION. And we killed many family members of the new leader, who happens to be more hardline then his father.

Any guarantee that Iran would accept will likely be HUGE, like us withdrawing from the Middle East or permitting Iran to actually get nukes. Stuff likely considered very unacceptable at this moment. but with a world wide depression, who knows?

And then there is the Israel factor.

They clearly view this as an existential war. Will they give up with an emboldened and stronger Iran? Will they agree to stop their criminal aggression?

I really don't think so, so far this war has been very popular with the Israeli people and the people running this war in Israel are as fanatical and abusive as the Iranians.

Nukes

There is the nuclear option, which, the thought would be the use of them would get Iran to unconditionally surrender

But, as indicated above Iran can hit a few desalination plants or Israel's nuclear facilities (to cause a similar nuclear event in Israel equivalent to a bomb)

And that assume Iran doesn't have nukes btw.

So, we have mutually assured destruction.

So, Trump has very very limited options here and Iran holds all the cards.

I don't see the US military upping their targeting against civilian targets like Israel does constantly. But maybe we will. A desperate Trump would have no qualms about it.

That type of strategy is a very very long process

And if we escalate like that Iran will escalate on Israel and the Gulf States.

Keep a very important point in mind.

Air power alone has never successfully cause regime change

Wait, there is another option before that option

We can target critical civilian infrastructure-oil and water

Israel tried this early on, you may have heard about oil raining down on Tehran.

Well, Iran has been VERY measured in their response to criminal aggression against them

Iran responded to the oil attack by targeting Israel's oil terminal (Haifa I think), where half of Israel's gas and fuel is produced.

Very measured response

America responded very strongly to get Israel to stop.

Also Iran has not been raining rockets and drones and missiles as willy nilly as propaganda would suggest

Iran is being restrained in the use of their ordnance (certainly for numerous reasons-including husbanding a limited supply)

But Iran has only targeted Israeli civilian areas with limited attacks

The other critical target is water desalination plants.

If Iran faces an existential threat to their regime they have a devastating tool under their control. they can target Israel and the Gulf State's desalination plants.

So, Iran has a truly devastating tool in their arsenal and that leads us to......

The results of Iran's success has been several fold.

They are able to pound Israel in ways that Israel has never experienced before. Entire neighborhoods are being leveled.

Iran has forced our navy out of Bahrain, meaning we need to go to India or Diego Garcia to rearm, meaning our ability to project force is drastically reduced as the navy loses time in transit.

Iran can degrade the oil and urea 'pipeline' out of the gulf, which has massive economic ripple effects.

Iran can do this with limited resources.

We lack an effective counter to Iran's capabilities. And we lack options to counter Iran's capabilities. We can bomb, more intensively, but Iran's rocket, drone and missile program are spread throughout the country in buried vaults/silos. That means each and every one has to be located and hit with heavy ordnance. That is it, that is the extent of our basic options.

Beyond that we can try to incite a civil war, which would fail. Kurds want nothing to do with us. The Iranian civilian population is unarmed and killing children (unapologetically) hardly endears us to them, so regime change from within just ain't going to work.

We can use land forces. But to what end. We simply do not have the troops or allies to do a massive land invasion. Ain't going to happen.

We can use land forces for limited objectives like securing the straits or seizing Iran's nuclear material.

But each of these is fraught with serious dangers. I hope I don't have to explain the hazards our marines would face in they landed along the Iranian shore or on Kharg island.

If we try to seize the nuclear material, we would need the 101st airborne and massive special forces along with a large contingent of experts to deal with the nuclear material, which is buried under rubble so heavy equipment. I hope you understand how dangerous that option would be

So, then there is ummm, well let's say it...

Without an achievable goal, a war cannot be won.

Iran's goal is to get Israel and the US to recognize their security

Their goal is met through objectives like stopping bombing and negotiating terms of an agreement that guarantees the above

Iran's objectives can be reached by simple survival and causing enough damage to force the US and Israel to the negotiating table.

Make no mistake Iran has shocked the US military in their response and capabilities. Stuff like shutting down the straits was certainly within their capabilities and would not come as a surprise.

What our military did not see what Iran's ability to take out or seriously degrade our radar system and thus the interceptor systems upon our, Israel's and the Gulf State's security relied upon.

The destruction of these systems has been HUGE.

Iran knew what they had to do, knew how to achieve it, knew where those systems were and were able to successfully target them

In this day and age of rocket and missile warfare radar systems are a critical aspect. Note that the interceptor systems are far less capable then advertised

Iran has degraded these systems significantly.`