... Hurricane Milton's surge to Category 5 strength comes from high-temperature Gulf of Mexico waters that also intensified the deadly Helene less than two weeks ago, contributing to the new storm's odd west-to-east track that threatens Tampa, Florida.
"There is really no historical precedent for a track like this," said Ryan Truchelut, president of commercial forecaster WeatherTiger.
Though the calendar says October, the water is 86F (30C) in Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Milton is gathering strength, and nearly that warm off Tampa, according to the National Data Buoy Center. Hurricanes draw power from hotter water, which acts as fuel for storms.
"The Gulf is still being summer-like with water temperatures," Truchelut said. Gulf waters averaged 78.4F in October 2023, according to the website sea temperature.info.
The balmy water has allowed Milton to rapidly intensify as it moves across the Gulf toward Florida's west coast, where it's forecast to make landfall Oct. 9. A storm rapidly intensifies when its winds grow in strength by 35 miles per hour or more in 24 hours. Milton met the definition in 12 hours Sunday, according to US National Hurricane Center records, and has now reached the top rung of the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.
While the larger weather patterns pushing west to east aren't unusual in October, what is odd is the warm water that is sustaining such a powerful storm on this path. Depending on where along the coast it strikes, Milton has the potential to be the worst hurricane to hit Tampa since 1921. ...