Economist: Musk is About to Cause a 'Deep, Deep Recession'

Saturday, February 22, 2025

Former Department of Labor economist Jesse Rothstein posted on Bluesky that he believes Trump's drastic downsizing of the government will cause economic pain for Americans. "It seems almost unavoidable at this point," Rothstein wrote, "that we are headed for a deep, deep recession."

Posted by retort at 04:48 PM | 24 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

Alternate links: Google News | Twitter

After this tweet went viral, Jesse and I talked about the possibility of a recession for my newsletter. You can also listen to it on your favorite podcast app! Just search for The Cross Section. paulwaldman.substack.com/p/is-the-nex ...

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-- Paul Waldman (@paulwaldman.bsky.social) February 20, 2025 at 12:36 PM

Comments

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Darn, right before the Pentagon is about to be audited!

What bad fortune for us.

#1 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2025-02-22 05:22 PM | Reply

"bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020."

Awwww... Trump got us our very own Covid covered Bush Recession equivalent.

Ain't that sweet of him?

Thanks, Trumpers!

(this is what Smash and Destroy Corporate take-overs look like, so we may as well get used to it)

The Smash-and-Grab Economy
Private equity billionaires are looting the country, leaving everyday Americans to clean up the mess"and fight for the scraps.

www.motherjones.com

#2 | Posted by Corky at 2025-02-22 05:40 PM | Reply

It's all good because, you know, Trump won in a landside and has a mandate, so whatever he does must be very smart and right and exactly what voters wanted.

#3 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2025-02-22 05:43 PM | Reply

Trumpf, Musk, the oligarchs, and their minions in the GOP and DOGE are locusts feasting on us Americans. Thanks for delivering us a plague, Republican voters!

#4 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2025-02-22 05:52 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

By definition GDP includes government spending. Will they be using the classic definition of recession or the Bidenomics one?

#5 | Posted by visitor_ at 2025-02-22 07:40 PM | Reply

"Will they be using the classic definition of recession or the Bidenomics one?"

What a riot.

By the time it was determined we were in a recession...we were out of it.

But I'm glad we'll be using the same standard for measuring Trump.

What will you say when it turns out we're currently in one?

#6 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-02-22 07:44 PM | Reply

"the March employment report (to be released April 4) seems certain to show bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020.."

The uncertain is "certain", but for some reason he left out 2024 Had Most Job Cuts In 15 Years With One Exception

Job cuts from U.S.-based companies were the highest they've been in 15 years in 2024"with the exception of 2020 job losses spurred by the COVID pandemic"as cuts jumped 5.5% over 2023, with experts blaming rapid technological advancement and shifting economic conditions.
www.forbes.com

#7 | Posted by oneironaut at 2025-02-22 08:16 PM | Reply

It's all good because, you know, Trump won in a landside and has a mandate, so whatever he does must be very smart and right and exactly what voters wanted.

#3 | POSTED BY GAL_TUESDAY

No its really not, the fundementals have been falling since the summer. Inflation won't stop until the overspending stops.

Unfortunately to do that its going to cause alot of pain.

#8 | Posted by oneironaut at 2025-02-22 08:17 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

abcnews.go.com

The orange rapist's numbers are legendary.

#9 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-22 08:19 PM | Reply

@#6 ... By the time it was determined we were in a recession...we were out of it. ...

Yup, that is the issue with the formal determination of whether or not a recession is occurring.

It is looking in the rear-view mirror, and not through the windshield.

#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-02-22 08:24 PM | Reply

There are two ways to balance a budget: decrease spending and/or increase taxes, especially on millionaires, billionaires and corporations. We know Trump, Musk and the GOP want to extend tax cuts to the wealthy. But guess what? There is no way for them to cut spending enough to balance the budget or bring down inflation, which isn't their goal anyway. Their real goal is to destroy the federal government, to demolish the administrative state, to undo the New Deal and to shrink the federal government so it can be drowned in a bathtub. Their real goal is to make the rich richer and the rest of us poorer and to destroy democracy in the process.

#11 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2025-02-22 08:29 PM | Reply

The nazis are just getting started.

trumpcostsamerica.com

#12 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2025-02-22 08:38 PM | Reply

Musk said we're going to have to suffer. Well, those of us that will actually suffer. There's no way the little inconvenience of a recession is going to hurt Musk. Trump? I'm not sure he's smart enough to know.

I do know this. They're both talking a lot about seeing if there's any gold in Ft. Knox for some reason. Perhaps it's their intent to use it for their own depression hedge. Maybe that'll be the only currency and they'll control it - and who gets it.

Ain't this awesome? Congrats America. You voted for this.

#13 | Posted by YAV at 2025-02-22 08:54 PM | Reply

@#13 ... Musk said we're going to have to suffer. ...

As did Pres Trump when he backed away from his campaign promise to lower prices on day one.

With High Prices Persisting, Trump Tempers Tone on Slaying Inflation (Februaru 12, 2025)
www.nytimes.com

... President Trump pledged to lower costs on "Day 1" as a candidate. His administration now acknowledges it will take more time. ...

So... yet more lies from Pres Trump?

#14 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-02-22 09:18 PM | Reply

So... yet more lies from Pres Trump?

Promises made.

Promises not kept.

#15 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-02-22 09:25 PM | Reply

Why would President Musk do such a thing.

#16 | Posted by ClownShack at 2025-02-22 09:28 PM | Reply

@#11 ... But guess what? There is no way for them to cut spending enough to balance the budget or bring down inflation, which isn't their goal anyway ...

I've heard rationalizations from the trump administration that tariffs will bring in the money needed to offset the tax reductions for the oligarchs.

But i have questions about that assertion ...

I'll start with ...

If Pres Trump's tariffs work as he asserts, companies will all move their production into the US, so then the tariffs from imported goods will go to zero. At that point, what is paying for for those tax reductions?

I have more questions, but I'll start there.

#17 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-02-22 09:50 PM | Reply

Danforth, the thing is, we were largely due to government spending. That works until it doesn't.

#18 | Posted by visitor_ at 2025-02-22 10:35 PM | Reply

Danforth, the thing is, we were largely kept out of recession due to government spending. That works until it doesn't.

#19 | Posted by visitor_ at 2025-02-22 10:37 PM | Reply

" Inflation won't stop until the overspending stops."

Please explain the many years we've all lived through, of overspending coupled with low inflation.

... .

No, I mean really, explain it! Please!!!

Frankly I'm in the same boat as you, wondering how and when the immutable laws of economic gravity will commence.

I'm convinced Trump brought the nails for the coffin.

#20 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-02-22 10:41 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

@#19 ... we were largely kept out of recession due to government spending. ...

A nice assertion, but evidence?

#21 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-02-22 10:44 PM | Reply

" we were largely kept out of recession due to government spending."

Exactly where do you see that in the equation?

Regardless, if a little more government spending keeps us out of a recession, isn't that the goal?!?

#22 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-02-22 10:47 PM | Reply

@#22

As a corollary, if I may ask ...

Will the ~DOGE dividend~ that Mr Musk and Pres Trump have been bantering around, how might that affect inflation?

The inflation that Pres Trump promised to reduce on Day One?

#23 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-02-22 11:00 PM | Reply

We are witnessing a wholy self inflicted destruction that could easily be avoided

Fucking magat scum

#24 | Posted by truthhurts at 2025-02-22 11:19 PM | Reply