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Thursday, December 19, 2024

Russell Berman: Trump's popular-vote margin has shrunk to about 1.5 percent -- one of the tightest in the past half century -- and because some votes went to third-party and independent candidates, he'll fall just short of winning a majority of the vote nationwide. And in the House, they gained a seat, leaving the GOP with the second-smallest majority in history.

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"A clearer picture of the election has emerged, complicating the debate over whether Democrats need to reinvent themselves--and whether voters really abandoned them at all," @russellberman.bsky.social writes: theatln.tc/Vdizauyy

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-- The Atlantic (@theatlantic.com) December 16, 2024 at 7:36 AM

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FTA:

"If the Democratic brand was fundamentally broken and needed to be thrown out, this election would have been a complete blowout. And it was not. It was way too close," Yasmin Radjy, the executive director of Swing Left, a Democratic organizing group, told me. Another Democrat, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly, put it this way: "We lost an election. We didn't lose the country."

In some areas, the election looked like a red wave; compared with four years ago, the presidential vote swung to the right by about 10 points in some of the most populous blue states, such as New York, California, and New Jersey. But down-ballot races offer a solid case for Democratic optimism. The party label appeared to be far less of an albatross for Democratic congressional candidates than it was in strong Republican years such as 2010 and 2014. In the Senate this year, although Republicans flipped four seats, Democratic candidates prevailed in four battleground states that Kamala Harris lost to Trump. And according to the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Democrats could have retaken the House majority with only 7,309 more votes across three congressional districts.


#1 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:29 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

The country is till pretty evenly divided, which is why I think if Republicans tried to go full steam ahead on Project 2025, they will be making a very big mistake:

By the way, did you know that Trump won the crucial blue wall states--Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin --by 231,000 votes? So if just 116,000 voters across those three swing states " or 0.7% of the total " had switched from Trump to Harris, it is the vice-president who would have won the electoral college ... and the presidency!

. . .In 2024, Republicans flipped the Senate and held onto the House but Trump still ended up having "limited coattails", to quote from the New York Times analysis. Of the five battleground states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) which held Senate races in November, the Republican candidate triumphed in only one of them (David McCormick in Pennsylvania, by a narrow 16,000 votes). Democrats held on to the other four.

www.theguardian.com

Trump's margin of victory was less than 2.3 million votes, and that's not a landslide or a blowout:

David Darmofal
@daviddarmofal.bsky.social

With California's votes now certified, this appears to be the final popular vote count. The margin of 1.47 percentage points is the smallest since the 2000 election. Kamala Harris received over 75 million votes in this election.

#2 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:39 AM | Reply

Just going to link to something I posted shortly after the election:

Democrats Join 2024's Graveyard of Incumbents
The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters. This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records. The cause? Inflation.
Dems actually did far better than governing parties in almost every other nation.
drudge.com

Incumbent-parties-lost-vote-share-2024-Gby4hbz-WAAMl-WLo

#3 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-18 08:40 AM | Reply

#3 The second sentence of the Atlantic article I linked to, but cut out in the intro for the sake of brevity, reads:

"Compared with incumbent governments elsewhere in the world, Democrats' losses were modest."

TY for highlighting that fact and in greater detail.

#4 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:45 AM | Reply

When Republicans lose, they claim they won. When Republicans win by a little, they say they won by a lot. When Democrats lose by a little, they act like they got massacred. I'm not saying Democrats don't have work to do with the working class, but my prediction is that if Republicans misread the 2024 election results and overplay their hand, they will go a long way in helping Democrats win back that segment of the populaiton.

#5 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:53 AM | Reply

"If the Democratic brand was fundamentally broken and needed to be thrown out, this election would have been a complete blowout."

Absolutely garbage.

The Dems ran against the worst candidate in history with enough red flags and baggage that he should have been a joke.

And lost.

"Oh but the vote count was close in swing states."

IT SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN CLOSE AT ALL.

Dems are owned by corporate money. Harris pumped the brakes on anti-corporate themes to protect her donor class. Biden and Co refused to go after price gouging leading inflation or Wall Street buying up homes nationwide.

I was happy Obama took on health insurance and pissed them off but he did nothing about fraud leading to the 2008 collapse. Now the Dems have gotten even worse.

For now, I'm done with the Dems.

#6 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-12-18 10:20 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

For now, I'm done with the Dems.
#6 | Posted by Sycophant

#7 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-18 06:33 PM | Reply

GFY CENSORED You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you??

#8 | Posted by LauraMohr at 2024-12-18 06:39 PM | Reply

GFY CENSORED You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you??
#8 | Posted by LauraMohr

Sure I do. But helping put Republicans into office seems like an unwise strategy.

Seems preferable to primary Dems into the party you desire. Like the Tea Party and MAGAts have, chasing every reasonable and sane moderating voice out of the GOP. And now they have the SCOTUS of their dreams (also happens to be the SCOTUS of the nightmares of the next three generations).

#9 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-18 07:56 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

GFY CENSORED You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you??
#8 | Posted by LauraMohr

Regardless. You are going to regret voting for Trump. Again.

#10 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-12-18 08:00 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

@#8 ... You never hold the Democratic party responsible for anything do you?? ...

Communication and messaging.

The Democrats need to up their game in those two areas.

Stated differently, why are so many voters who would benefit from the policies of Democrats vote against Democrats?

Captain Beyond - Sufficiently Breathless (1973)
www.youtube.com

The song has one of my favorite lyric excerpts ...

genius.com

...
Hey, Mr. Policeman, can you point the way
Oh, with your handgun?
...

#11 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-12-18 09:14 PM | Reply

Democrats need to get rid of social issues and focus on the things the Republicans focused on.

That's what the American People want.

But yall keep putting lipstick on that pig.

#12 | Posted by boaz at 2024-12-19 09:19 AM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 1

Democrats need to get rid of social issues and focus on the things the Republicans focused on.

#12 | POSTED BY BOAZ

Trans people?

Bathroom assignments?

#13 | Posted by Zed at 2024-12-19 09:28 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

But yall keep putting lipstick on that pig.

#12 | POSTED BY BOAZ

Yuo voted Donald.

Explain why he is not a pig.

Please go into detail.

#14 | Posted by Zed at 2024-12-19 09:29 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

When Republicans lose, they claim they won. When Republicans win by a little, they say they won by a lot. When Democrats lose by a little, they act like they got massacred. I'm not saying Democrats don't have work to do with the working class, but my prediction is that if Republicans misread the 2024 election results and overplay their hand, they will go a long way in helping Democrats win back that segment of the populaiton.

#5 | Posted by Gal_Tuesday at 2024-12-18 08:53 AM | Reply | Flag:
(Choose)

Gal, did you know that the President is elected based on the electoral college? Here is a link so you understand how it works.
www.elle.com

But if you want to dwell on how Trump won the popular but by not that much you can. Better luck next time!

#15 | Posted by fishpaw at 2024-12-19 12:06 PM | Reply

"The party's debate about reinventing itself after the election has gotten more complicated."

translation - don't abandon your milquetoast moderate corporatist positions that got trump re elected!

#16 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-12-19 01:04 PM | Reply

But if you want to dwell on how Trump won the popular but by not that much you can. Better luck next time!

#15 | Posted by fishpaw

Who won the 2020 election?

#17 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-12-19 01:04 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

Losing 312 - 226 and 4 senate seats and watching a couple decades of time and billions of dollars in turn out the vote efforts for hispanics upended as the men go vote for Trump, it's really bad.

It's hard to come up with realistic scenarios of how it could have gone worse.

#18 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-12-19 02:36 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

Democrats need to get rid of social issues and focus on the things the Republicans focused on.

What republican focused things are you talking about, Boaz?

Things like, "teachers are turning your kids gay"?

How about, "trans women are raping your daughters"?

Maybe it's, "drag queens are exposing themselves to your kids"?

Or possibly, "Mexico is send their criminals and rapists"?

Could it be, "they're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats, they're eating your pets"?

Tell us Boaz, I'm waiting to hear all the things the republicans focused on.

Because, you've never talked about it, or posted any threads about it.

I anxiously await your response.

#19 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-12-19 02:43 PM | Reply

It's hard to come up with realistic scenarios of how it could have gone worse.
#18 | Posted by sitzkrieg

Well, at least a transgender person in Kansas didn't help elect Trump ... twice.

#20 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-19 04:34 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Democrats chose a Black Woman of Jamaican / Southeast Asian descent.

The fact over 74 million Americans voted for her is a better result than I had expected. Way to go American voters!

But still.

Pretty sure any random white dude would have done better.

#21 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-12-19 05:01 PM | Reply

#21 anybody could have done better, because despite what Tony was selling Kamala has turned into an empty suit. Perhaps she had something going for her earlier in her career as a prosecutor, but she was not able to project anything of substance in this campaign.

#22 | Posted by kwrx25 at 2024-12-19 05:27 PM | Reply

Congrats on proving Clownshack's statement true, KWRX.

#23 | Posted by YAV at 2024-12-19 06:13 PM | Reply

Well, at least a transgender person in Kansas didn't help elect Trump ... twice.

#20 | Posted by censored at 2024-12-19 04:34 PM | Reply

I know more than one trans Trumper.

#24 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2024-12-19 06:22 PM | Reply

There will always be the self loathers.

Every community has them.

#25 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-12-19 06:24 PM | Reply

I know a couple unicorns that poop out diamonds

#26 | Posted by hamburglar at 2024-12-19 06:26 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 1

To be clear.

I don't believe Laura is a self loather, nor does she support Trump, nor has she ever supported Trump.

That's just what, certain butt hurt Democrats, Hillary voters, accuse her of.

#27 | Posted by ClownShack at 2024-12-19 06:26 PM | Reply

Yet in over decades, Trump, a Republican, won the popular vote, as well as the Electoral vote - but then again, who's counting ; )

How could such a 'great candidate', running such a 'great well funded campaign' like the dems fielbecauseded lost lost so pathetically...

You know that anser, but cannot accept it because:
:
en.wikipedia.org

Libbies can accept a lot of BS, but not reality!

#28 | Posted by MSgt at 2024-12-19 11:28 PM | Reply

Reality is that he won by 121K votes in 3 swing states, and that less than half of all votes were for him.

His only 'man date' is Vlad.

Maybe you.

#29 | Posted by Corky at 2024-12-19 11:40 PM | Reply

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