Are you saying Iran will simply refuse to agree to any of Trump's terms and win?
And as long as Iran refuses to capitulate, you believe it can maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz...for now...or perhaps indefinitely?
Just dig in their heals and that's all they'll need to do?

#22 | Posted by BillJohnson

Yes, that is correct.

You don't get it Bill; Iran controls the strait. There is no going back. Even in best of circumstances all they have to do is threaten action and poof traffic stops

You fail to understand that we lost. Iran won.

It is one of the most lopsided strategic victories in a long time.

Try, real hard, to put yourself in Iran's shoes.

3 times Piggy has backed out of an agreement, the second two times with violence

The last time with a cowardly sneak attack.

We murdered their leader with a cowardly bombing.

We murdered the more centrist elements of the regime

Piggy threatened to murder their negotiators

Piggy threatened to end their civilization.

Why would ANYONE agree to ANYTHING with Piggy.

Let alone give up something with the value of controlling the strait and with zero upside.

Seriously, what is the upside for Iran to agree to anything with Piggy?

The ONLY card Piggy has is to cease bombing

But if Iran gives up control of the strait, nothing prevents Piggy from coming back and bombing them months or years from now

And, shit, just this week Piggy showed he acts at the whims of the ME dictators who told him in no uncertain terms he isn't putting a toll on the strait

You need to wrap your head around the fact that we lost, unequivocably

And we deserve to suffer

This is the new normal. Get used to it.

Try to simplify it for me.
Does Iran have a superior military, or are its leaders simply smarter than ours?

TH: Our military is far superior. Explain how it matters. Our leaders are incredibly stupid. Relative levels of intelligence are critically important.

Or is it something else?

TH: It is something else. The primary purpose of a war is to achieve an objective. Piggy started this war with no goal. Prevent Iran from getting nukes? Regime change? Degrade their military? Unconditional surrender?
We are at the point where victory is opening the strait, which was opened before the war.

Is the US politically incapable of forcing Iran to yield?

TH: Yes.

Is the rest of the world simply going to have to accept Iran's control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz?

TH: Yes

#47 | Posted by BillJohnson

Piggy can do nothing to force Iran to do what he wants.

christ this shit is so freaking obvious

1. he has no objective
2. He has amateurs negotiating against seasoned, intelligent knowledgeable people. Vance Witkoff and Kushner don't know the first thing about nuclear weapons as an example.
3. There are no viable military options beyond bombing, which WILL NOT WORK
4. An invasion is completely utterly out of the question. We had numerous allies when we invaded Iraq. We have none now. We do not have the military capability to invade Iran. Iran is far larger than Iraq with NO access points. Through Iraq? HA Hussein couldn't do it against a country undergoing a revolution. From the Sea? HA operational dead end due to geography-mountains. From Pakistan? from Russia? Those are your options

ALL Iran has to do is threaten shipping and shipping stops. You understand that right? What will keep Iran from doing that?

People far smarter than understood this months ago.

What we need to do in Iran is destroy its ability to threaten other countries and international shipping and force it back to the negotiating table.
Then leave.
We do not need to occupy the country.

#56 | Posted by BillJohnson

You do understand that is impossible right?

You get that, right?

All Iran needs are a few cheaply and easily made drones and they have the ability to threaten shipping.

And Iran has FAR more than that

Do yourself a favor and look at a map. Look at the rail line connecting China with Iran.

You realize China can and will supply Iran with any military hardware they need. You get that right?

Now, look at the Caspian Sea

You see how Russia can supply any military hardware Iran could need across that water body?

You understand that, right?

THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO TO FORCE IRAN TO DO WHAT WE WANT.

GET THAT THROUGH YOUR THICK SKULL

I referred earlier to this being one of the largest strategic defeats in memory

I was not being hyperbolic.

We have handed control over 20% of the world's oil to Iran.

Along with a substantial portion of other critical materials including fertilizer

Iran can and will now control that.

That means sanctions will be lifted. Iran will insist on that

You think countries like S. Korea or Japan or India or Indonesia gives two shits about the US vs Iran's control of the strait? They need the oil and will pay for it. Otherwise their economies crash.

It is that simple.

Iran now has these countries as clients.

No other country, except maybe Russia (due to sanctions) has the capacity to meet that demand.

That makes Iran a great power.

At least as great as Russia.

Truth,
"There is nothing we can do" is every bit as absolute and unrealistic as claiming Iran could never rebuild anything.
Never say never.

#63 | Posted by BillJohnson

Can you express a realistic alternative to my conclusions?

I'll assume you aren't singing its praises.
You're saying its willingness to inflict enormous harm and absorb enormous losses to achieve its objectives gives it considerable power?

#64 | Posted by BillJohnson

"You're saying its willingness to inflict enormous harm and absorb enormous losses to achieve its objectives gives it considerable power?"

Same exact thing is true about America, we can inflict enormous harm on Iran to achieve our goals though we have demonstrated a significant greater sensitivity to losses.

I am saying control over a large percentage of critical materials gives Iran massive strategic power.

That is a simple fact

There is nothing we can do to prevent Iran from asserting that power

Again

One must consider this from Iran's perspective

Piggy unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA while Iran was abiding by it

Iran was willing to negotiate with Piggy

Piggy attacked them in summer 2025 DURING negotiations, without warning or declaration-this is vile.

Iran began negotiations with the US again at the end of 2025 into 2026.

Once again Piggy attacked them without warning, without ANY justification. this was cowardly and despicable.

Piggy killed Iran's more moderate leader (along with infants) in a cowardly sneak attack

Piggy killed Iran's primary negotiators

Piggy and Israel BRAGGED about their ability to do the above and the successes they had doing so

Piggy regular threatens to kill MORE Iranian leaders including Iranian negotiators-he did so just last week

Piggy has threatened to end Iran's civilization.

Piggy has lies constantly about Iran's nuclear program and their nuclear capabilities and intentions

The US may ignore Piggy's threats like the meaningless bluster, but Iran doesn't.

Piggy's justifications and goals have shifted constantly over the past months, while Iran's have stayed consistent.

Piggy is allied with a genociding aggressor nation who is committing war crimes daily, who has assassinated Iranians for decades.

Iran holds leverage against regime change that if they give up will certainly come back to bite them in the ass

Iran has ZERO incentive for any deal

ESPECIALLY since Piggy has shown himself completely and utterly untrustworthy.

These are simple truths