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#9 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-09-09 04:31 PM
Maybe circumstances change in the future and the value of the dollar starts to go back up ... if the value of the dollar continues to decline.
That is no longer a safe bet, as the assumption was a year ago, when Trump's hack Peter Navarro and economic advisor Stephen Miran managed to quickly bring USD down 12%, and there was a plan for "Mar-a-Lago Accord" to bully other countries into supporting some USD devaluation... but several things changed since to make this much more iffy, notwithstanding Trump still wanting lower USD and rates.
1. When USD dropped sharply lower in 2025, China sharply lowered CNY to 7.3 and Miran wisely stopped currency mini-war, and USD stabilized at that 10%-15% lower range. No attempts to deliberately lower USD since that slapdown, especially because of very weak JPY.
2. Miran is out of administration, after a short stint at the Fed, and buffoon Navarro no longer has policy authority.
3. Trump, just as Biden, wants to "run economy hot"... but because of persistent inflation, in large part due to Trump's idiotic policies, US bonds are being sold and interest rates are going higher, ironically supporting USD, despite Trump bullying and Bessent's impotent attempts at intervention. Warsh can try and slow down short-term rates hikes, but that's only prolonging the agony.
4. As you know, EU (and Germany) is also in quite a bit of turmoil economically and politically, and there are several weak governments so that puts the limit on EUR / USD arbitrage, and makes the issue much less predictable or stable:
bondvigilantes.com - Who backstops the backstop? - 2026-09-10
#10 | Posted by jpw at 2026-09-10 02:53 AM
It's been six weeks and we're already 200% sure we're not going back unless we somehow lose our residency permits.
Congrats! Just be aware of FATCA.
BTW, Prague is lovely this time of year, and has a lot of nice caffes... at least last time I passed through there.
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