Michael Tomasky: It wasn't the economy. It wasn't inflation, or anything else. It was how people perceive those things, which points to one overpowering answer. The answer is the right-wing media.
It was worldwide, with every governing party losing voting share this year for the first time in history:
And people hate inflation:
Americans hate inflation, full stopObama and Clinton were elected because of a bad economy. Carter lost because of one.
No traction for more positive economic developments, research says
June 20, 2024 Harvard News Gazette
Of course, like in the past, Dems had other issues this time, like Biden misrepresenting his condition and depriving Dems of an actual nomination process. But, IMHO, we need to stop reading too much into things and accept that sometimes candidates are subject to forces beyond their control.
Oh the irony and the schadenfreude that is about to follow:
America's political discordance: The Trump voters who want progressivismwww.salon.com
Trump voters backed abortion, minimum wage and family leave--but don't get that Project 2025 would take it away
Perhaps out of fear of insulting their audiences, the pundits, journalists, and political consultants engaged in the lengthy post-mortem about Donald Trump's horrific victory Tuesday are avoiding the most obvious cause: ignorance. Millions of people who desperately want more progressive policies cast their ballots for a man whose agenda is exactly the opposite of what they want.
In state after state, voters backed both Trump and ballot initiatives that advanced and protected progressive goals. Laws protecting abortion rights were backed by the majority of voters in most states, even deep-red ones like Missouri, Montana, and even Florida--where the initiative only failed because Republicans set a 60% supermajority threshold. In Missouri, 12% of voters backed both abortion rights and Trump. Red state voters also backed initiatives to raise the minimum wage, ensure paid sick and family leave, and even ban employers from forcing employees to sit through right-wing or anti-union presentations. Democrats like Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, who are strongly associated with these progressive policies, were also able to win where Vice President Kamala Harris failed.
The problem wasn't Democratic policy or messaging. It's ignorance. As Heather "Digby" Parton wrote at Salon Wednesday, people backed Trump's "aesthetics and attitudes" but knew nothing about his policies. Before the election, Catherine Rampell and Youyou Zhou at the Washington Post polled voters about policies without revealing which candidate proposed them. Harris' were far more popular--even Trump voters generally liked her ideas more, as long as they knew they weren't hers.
__________
2020 Trump - 74.2m - 51%, 306 EC
2024 Trump - 74.2m - >50%
2024 Harris - 70.3m - 48%
11m deficit is enough for a dozen "Blue Walls" - that's the real story.
www.nbcnews.com - National Exit Polls: Election 2024 - NBC
Contrary to all the commentaries, Trump didn't "outperform" his 2020/2016 numbers - Harris bigly "underperformed" Biden and Hillary numbers in Dem areas, so percentages show it as Trump's relative "outperformance." It's clear that millions stayed home rather than vote FOR Harris - IOW, she royally f'd up for that to happen.
Mistake #1 - hubris: "Transitional" President declined to "transition / exit" in time and decided that he was "the best one to beat Trump."
Mistake $2 - hubris: Nationally, people keep rejecting "woke"; they barely elected "moderate, normal" Joe Biden, hoping he would be a centrist. after he selected Kamala to "balance" the ticket to appease "Bernie / Warren" wing. Dems keep forgetting it election after election and, after a win, think that people love them and ALL their policies.
Mistake $3 - hubris: Harris, already saddled with "Komrad Kamala" baggage in San Fran and CA, decided to ignore the safe and best choice to "balance" the ticket and secure the PA and likely other "Blue Wall" states votes... and chose someone even further left. The only way that could work if she started to speak "centrist" yet that didn't really happen - as she tried to fake it and avoid any substance. So what was the point? (Corollary: Never pick as VP a guy named "Tim")
Mistake #4 - hubris: Telling people that NUMBERS show "economy is good" (ignoring that 60%-70% have trouble paying bills and rising debt; steady 65+% of likely voters polled "on the wrong track") or claiming credit for subsiding inflation which is the result of the Fed and other Central Banks raising rates and slowing economies everywhere.
Mistake #5 - hubris: Doubling down on Bernie and Warren's "greedflation" and "gouging" and proposing usual left-wing "solutions" like price controls - that even most mainstream Dem economists said would be a disaster - and "no new ideas" ads continued until Nov 5th.
Mistake #6 - hubris: Not seeing forest for the trees. Taking for granted and relying on "Dem 'protection' lock-in" votes of women, "minorities" (LatinX, Black, Asian) and flaky "yoots" and pushing marginal yet largely unpopular issues like trans in women/girls sports and bathrooms **, forgiving student loans etc., while pissing off huge parts of even the same constituency to feel abandoned, ignored, looked upon and called "intolerant," "deplorable" etc., when they disagree.
IOW, just like Hillary!, hers was a "not listening, not hearing" campaign, with celebrity endorsements and repeating to the choir known facts about Trump (like Biden reminding us about 34 felony counts in a "debacle") but little about her (except "nothing different" ?), in a world that shifted away from and cares little about new "woke" acronyms (DEI, ESG, GND...), yet anyone with different opinion is disdained, called names and/or just ignored.
** www.usatoday.com - Harris lost because she was a bad candidate. Don't blame white women for that - USAT
www.nbcnews.com - Young men's economic prospects are shifting, along with their politics - NBC
www.theguardian.com - 'A fatal miscalculation' - Guardian
You can ignore reality, you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality
__________
Hey, I am just pondering why we seemingly have anomalous results.
#35 | Posted by truthhurts
It's not anomalous if you take into account how much people HATE inflation. Pasting again the below article; maybe take a moment to look at it.
Basically, nothing changes the fact that people are upset about inflation, even if their wages doubled and the economy is roaring. Every time they go shopping and see that their groceries are 40% more expensive than a couple years ago, they become angry. And then they lash out at whichever party is in power.
Americans hate inflation, full stop
No traction for more positive economic developments, research says
June 20, 2024 Harvard News Gazette
Inflation way down
Silly, prices are still higher, it didn't lower prices.
Real wages up for the first time in decades, ahead of inflation
What are you talking about? Highest wages have ever been was Q2 2020, dropped and haven't recovered.
They dropped, and have since been stagnant in 82-84 dollars.
fred.stlouisfed.org
the populace should not want deflation-that would be a recession/depression
Perhaps depends you want to buy a house or sell a house.
Biden did that
No he didn't, he didn't build ----.
Trump won by making the population feel there are unfair foreign influences
No he didn't he won because he expressed common sense. What people were seeing vs what the media was telling them.
All Harris and Biden had to do was accept reality, and tell people the truth about what they were seeing.
Secure border? Border county 97% hispanic voted for Trump
Crime down? FBI adjusted their number, and not one county in CA voted against crime bill.
Inflation is Transitory? People saw with thier pocketbooks this was a lie
Everything the Biden/Harris administration and the media said about anything seemed to be a lie.
Just gaslighting and the people figured it out.
Trump won because he has a strong wife who helped him succeed.
Elon Musk branded the First Lady' after Melania doesn't appear in Trump family photo
www.the-independent.com
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