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Thursday, August 27, 2026

Robert Kagan: The dominant power in the Middle East from now on will not be the U.S. or Israel but Iran.

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"Iran has, with American help, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf," Robert Kagan argues. The world will now "discover what Iran unleashed looks like."

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-- The Atlantic (@theatlantic.com) 3:15 AM · Aug 24, 2026

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"The regional adjustment has begun," writes Kagan. "Gulf rulers who once counted on an American security guarantee must now make their peace with the power that proved capable of defeating their protector."

Saudi Arabia's rejection of the U.S.- and Israel-backed Abraham Accords in favor of a strategic compact with Pakistan and Turkey hints at the shape of the future. The Abraham Accords represented the consolidation of Israeli power and influence in the region and the further containment of Iran. The Mecca pact is something else entirely. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey regards Iran as a major threat; Pakistan, like Iran, has close relations with China; Israel regards Turkey as a regional threat second only to Iran. Instead of an American-Israeli order, this will be an alignment less implacably hostile to Iran, less friendly to Israel, and more independent of the United States. The signatories also have nuclear weapons in common: Pakistan has them, and the Turks and Saudis want them.

#1 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2026-08-24 10:20 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

"The effects will extend far beyond the Middle East," Kagan believes.

American allies in Asia and Europe can see that a relatively brief war against a second-rank power has consumed much of America's supply of the weapons needed for missile defense. They can see that the United States began a war it could not finish, exposed its partners to retaliation, and then stopped when the costs became too great. Beijing's conclusions about Taiwan, and Moscow's conclusions about Europe, may be impossible to know. But America's allies will inevitably be asking whether Washington has the weapons, stamina, and political will to sustain another major conflict. In fact, they already are.

#2 | Posted by Doc_Sarvis at 2026-08-24 10:22 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

As soon as I saw the title "Iran Unleashed," I immediately knew this was an Atlantic hit piece.

#3 | Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 2026-08-24 01:21 PM | Reply

This is some of the stupidest ---- I've ever heard.

#4 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2026-08-24 03:43 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

I like how Liberals chirp that Iran is stronger than ever. The sadder part is that is what they want. Never mind that their military is gone as well as their economy. The miscalculation that this administration made was thinking right after the first invasion that the people of Iran would rise up and take over. It will happen but obviously will take longer than expected.

#5 | Posted by fishpaw at 2026-08-27 12:23 PM | Reply | Funny: 3

#5

Faux history... the mistake Iranians made was believing your Cult Leader when he told them that if they rose up he would support them militarily.

He instead sat on his tiny hands as they rose up and tens of thousands of them died for nothing.

Worst President Ever... ask any Presidential Historian.

#6 | Posted by Corky at 2026-08-27 12:30 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#5 | Posted by fishpaw

And an American-friendly regime has been installed, the Strait of Hormuz is open, the nuclear dust has been taken, US military bases haven't been evacuated, Iran is begging for a deal, has nothing left to fire, oil prices are dropping like a rock... right?

#7 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2026-08-27 12:35 PM | Reply | Funny: 1 | Newsworthy 1

Why does the American mainstream media continue to recycle the opinions of these devious, Israel-first analysts? Robert Kagan is a co-author of PNAC which jumpstarted all of this nonsense in the Middle East nearly 30 years ago. He was a leading supporter of the Iraqi invasion by BushCo. back in 2003.
He has not done nothing but harm American strategic interests for 30 years.

He is and always will be an Israel-first Zionist and anything he bleats should be immediately discredited when it comes to the direction of future American foreign policy in the region.

#8 | Posted by pumpkinhead at 2026-08-27 12:46 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 4

#8 That's the left, politics over country. They moaned and groaned about not getting intel ahead of time because they couldn't leak it to Iran leadership so we would get soldier's killed just so they could blame it on Trump.

#9 | Posted by fishpaw at 2026-08-27 01:07 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

#8 That's the left, politics over country. They moaned and groaned about not getting intel ahead of time because they couldn't leak it to Iran leadership so we would get soldier's killed just so they could blame it on Trump.

#9 | Posted by fishpaw

Your cult decided to attack democracy and the consitution (and the capitol) rather than admitting they lost an election.

#10 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2026-08-27 01:11 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

And an American-friendly regime has been installed, the Strait of Hormuz is open, the nuclear dust has been taken, US military bases haven't been evacuated, Iran is begging for a deal, has nothing left to fire, oil prices are dropping like a rock... right?

#7 | Posted by Derek_Wildstar at 2026-08-27 12:35 PM | Reply | Flag:
(Choose)

I said the mistake was thinking the people of Iran would stand up earlier. And as of oil prices if we didn't drill more they would be double.

#11 | Posted by fishpaw at 2026-08-27 01:13 PM | Reply | Funny: 2

Your cult decided to attack democracy and the consitution (and the capitol) rather than admitting they lost an election.

#10 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2026-08-27 01:11 PM | Reply | Flag:
(Choose)

And Hillary claimed she won, so what's your point.

#12 | Posted by fishpaw at 2026-08-27 01:15 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Fishpaw, you're someone who only sees things in terms of "left vs. right" since, like, forever. What a useful fool you have been.

America wouldn't have attacked Iran or Iraq if it wasn't for the likes of Robert Kagan and his Israel-first comrades (like Bill Kristol) manipulating you and soulless morons like your buddy Trump.

You will have to learn and understand that greatest enemy of America's continued existence is Israel and its influence. Otherwise, you will always be a part of the problem.

#13 | Posted by pumpkinhead at 2026-08-27 01:16 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

Obligatory.

x.com

#14 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2026-08-27 01:21 PM | Reply

And Hillary claimed she won, so what's your point.

#12 | Posted by fishpaw

No she claimed russia helped trump. WHich was true. Then she conceded and went home.

Trump claimed he won, attacked democracy, conspired to overturn the election, fomented a coup, and still hasn't conceded, permanently damaging the country and faith in democracy.

You know all this and are pretending not to.

Unless you're stupider than we thought.

#15 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2026-08-27 01:23 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

#8 That's the left, politics over country.
#9 | Posted by fishpaw

Have the doctors diagnosed your condition? You just waking up from something?

12 posts in and you're talking about Hillary Clinton. Bless your heart.

#16 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-08-27 01:32 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

-Fishpaw, you're someone who only sees things in terms of "left vs. right" since, like, forever. What a useful fool you have been.

Wow, that really separates him from 95% of the regular posters here.

#17 | Posted by eberly at 2026-08-27 01:40 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Unlike you, right, Beverley.

Always a Bipartisan Voice of Reason.

Always on the Fence.

Except for Trump, Right?

You say you don't like his Policy or Persona.

Then defend his every Crime.

#18 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2026-08-27 02:15 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 1


Your cult decided to attack democracy and the consitution (and the capitol) rather than admitting they lost an election.
#10 | Posted by SpeakSoftly

SpeaksLikeAnIdiot, just type "F10" .. we'll know what you mean, and it will save you a lot of time, and misspellings.

#19 | Posted by oneironaut at 2026-08-27 02:26 PM | Reply


12 posts in and you're talking about Hillary Clinton. Bless your heart.
#16 | Posted by Dbt2

R2D2, reading is fundemental (RIF)

It's in response to only 10 post in of SpeaksLikeAnIdiot talking about J6, democracy, and misspelling the Constitution.

That's not a record for him, but it's close.

#20 | Posted by oneironaut at 2026-08-27 02:30 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Here's a hint: nothing has changed; it's just been exposed.

#21 | Posted by oneironaut at 2026-08-27 02:31 PM | Reply | Funny: 1

Here's a hint: nothing has changed; it's just been exposed.

#21 | Posted by oneironaut

That's a change numbnuts.

Kind of like how russia's military incompetence got exposed when they invaded ukraine.

Trump did the same favor for the USA.

It's a loss of power and influence. AKA - a change. Idiot.

#22 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2026-08-27 02:44 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

SpeaksLikeAnIdiot, just type "F10" .. we'll know what you mean, and it will save you a lot of time, and misspellings.

#19 | Posted by oneironaut

Cult member holds internet commentators to higher grammatical standards than he holds statements from the president of the united states.

#23 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2026-08-27 02:45 PM | Reply | Newsworthy 2

This is some of the stupidest ---- I've ever heard.

#4 | Posted by lfthndthrds

Which means it's probably spot on.

#24 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 04:02 AM | Reply

I like how Liberals chirp that Iran is stronger than ever.

You can't even accurately paraphrase something.

It's as strong as it was, the balance has just shifted because the counterweight is no longer there.

If reporting is accurate, US military capabilities in the ME are essentially gone. Iran has the global economy by the balls and unstable, impulsive "leadership" in the US has fractured if not shattered alliances that were the core of the counterweight.

The sadder part is that is what they want.

Gotta love that projection. The only people acting as if their preferred but obviously false narrative is reality are MAGA morons like you, s*&^heap. You're too f*&^ing stupid to know your s*&^ worldview has broken our world and too f*&^ing cowardly to admit it even if you could grasp it.

Never mind that their military is gone as well as their economy.

Their military is quite obviously not gone. But thanks for your dutiful repetition of the slop your consume as "news" that comes straight from Trump handler's mouths.

The miscalculation that this administration made was thinking right after the first invasion that the people of Iran would rise up and take over. It will happen but obviously will take longer than expected.

#5 | Posted by fishpaw

As always, MAGA idiots like you will refuse to see the gross incompetence that is right before your eyes. You'll cling to "it's just over the horizon" for the next three years, if not longer.

But here's the sad truth, dumbf*&^, it's not just over any horizon. This mess won't be fixed until someone else takes power and dumb f*&^ing morons like you will blame that person to spare your spray tanned calf the humiliation he deserves.

#25 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 04:09 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

That's the left, politics over country. They moaned and groaned about not getting intel ahead of time because they couldn't leak it to Iran leadership so we would get soldier's killed just so they could blame it on Trump.

#9 | Posted by fishpaw

I'm at the point where the only thing I can hope for at this point is as rapid a loss of this segment of the population as possible.

This idiot is so fantastically, moronically, ridiculously, absurdly over the top stupid that the only thing that will save us from people like him is for them to not be around anymore.

He's never going to get it. He's never going to magically be unstupid.

The only option is he stops wasting good oxygen to produce ------ like this.

Maybe when Trump finally chokes on a Big Mac they'll show ear diaper-like solidarity by choking on one as well.

#26 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 04:14 AM | Reply

And as of oil prices if we didn't drill more they would be double.

#11 | Posted by fishpaw

LOL this f*&^ing idiot is delusional. Nothing he says or thinks is remotely reflected in reality.

Oil companies haven't been drilling, idiot.

And production throughout the Biden years was at record levels.

The only reason prices aren't "doubled" is because Trump gave away our strategic reserve to save his political skin.

You and your ilk have irrevocably broken the United States.

#27 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 04:16 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

#22 | Posted by SpeakSoftly

Onelumpofs*&^ likes to act like he has these deep, insightful opinions and understandings of things when in reality he's just the Miss Cleo of the DR. Something happens and his response is 'yeah, I knew that was coming, duhhhhh LuMpErZ!".

Meanwhile, everything else he says is laughable wrong.

#28 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 04:19 AM | Reply

JPW @ #27

Well said.

#29 | Posted by Twinpac at 2026-08-28 05:17 AM | Reply

"The miscalculation that this administration made was thinking right after the first invasion that the people of Iran would rise up and take over. It will happen but obviously will take longer than expected."

The first invasion?

I didn't realize there had been an invasion. Other than a handful of JSOC guys rescuing a WSO that got shot down.

What invasion are you talking about?

#30 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-08-28 06:44 AM | Reply

impulsive "leadership"

That's an oxymoron if ever there was.

#31 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-08-28 07:16 AM | Reply

"The only people acting as if their preferred but obviously false narrative is reality are MAGA morons like you, s*&^heap."

81% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump. I need someone to explain to me how that is possible. I could understand the logic of supporting any Republican over any Democrat. It's stupid, but it will always be a thing. I just can't see how anyone with even the most basic level of common sense could ever view Trump as even remotely competent. Is it that they like the drama? The theatrics of the Trump presidency?

#32 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-08-28 07:24 AM | Reply

If I could have made the quotes size 50 font, I would have.

However, they are unfortunately in charge and, therefore, occupy leadership positions or roles.

#33 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 07:26 AM | Reply

81% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump. I need someone to explain to me how that is possible.

#32 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-08-28 07:24 AM | Reply | Flag:

It's a cult.

#34 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2026-08-28 07:47 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 1

Maybe when Trump finally chokes on a Big Mac

#26 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 04:14 AM | Reply

You would know about choking on Big Macks, you lot lizard.

#35 | Posted by fortfisher at 2026-08-28 08:29 AM | Reply

I know they hate the word, but that's because people rarely own or accept a highly negative descriptor of themselves unless they're really unabashedly it.

For instance, only a true woman hater would own the description of a misogynist, a true supremacist the term racist ect ect. Because hating those groups is actually part of their identity.

The funny thing is that they're as much a cultist as their identity as those people are haters of women or minorities. They just refuse to admit it or see it.

Take fistedp^$$&, the level of trust and adoration it takes to say the stuff he says about Trump is absurd. Any rational actor by this point knows he's incompetent or simply kicking up dust to cover for his illicit activities going on behind the scenes. There is no goal to reach, let alone to be reached in some distant undefined future.

#36 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 08:32 AM | Reply

You would know about choking on Big Macks, you lot lizard.

#35 | Posted by fortfisher

Go step into traffic you worthless piece of s*&^.

#37 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 08:32 AM | Reply

"It's a cult."

Yeah, I just wonder how far off we are from when that cult starts doing things like suicide bombings. Within ISIS, it was a prestigious thing to die for the Caliphate. As the world (including the US) turns more against Trump, what lengths are his acolytes willing to go to win his favor?

#38 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-08-28 09:07 AM | Reply

All this because Trump phqued teenage girls.

#39 | Posted by lee_the_agent at 2026-08-28 09:16 AM | Reply

I'm still convinced that IF civil strife happens, it's got a 98% chance of being started by MAGA because either a. they get violently angry when things get so bad they snap out of it and lash out or b. they're so beholden to Trump they react violently when everyone else finally stops humoring them or treats them with the scorn they deserve as things fall apart.

#40 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 09:32 AM | Reply

"I'm still convinced that IF civil strife happens, it's got a 98% chance of being started by MAGA because either a. they get violently angry when things get so bad they snap out of it and lash out or b. they're so beholden to Trump they react violently when everyone else finally stops humoring them or treats them with the scorn they deserve as things fall apart."

It'll be option B.

Like Sitz said, it's a cult. It's love. Trump already injured the US population (including Trump supporters) in ways no president ever has.

They're battered spouses who can't imagine life without the one they love. I don't know of any other way to characterize it.

#41 | Posted by madbomber at 2026-08-28 09:42 AM | Reply | Newsworthy 3

As the world (including the US) turns more against Trump, what lengths are his acolytes willing to go to win his favor?
#38 | Posted by madbomber

None. They're cowards.

But they're stupid enough to think that Trump's immunity from prosecution is contagious.

#42 | Posted by Dbt2 at 2026-08-28 09:45 AM | Reply

They're (MAGA) battered spouses who can't imagine life without the one they love. I don't know of any other way to characterize it.

#41 | Posted by madbomber

Bingo.

#43 | Posted by Zed at 2026-08-28 09:55 AM | Reply

They're battered spouses who can't imagine life without the one they love. I don't know of any other way to characterize it.

#41 | Posted by madbomber

Nah, not spouses. Trump isn't committed to them or even that interested in their existence.

They're more like those women in small towns who bounce around from guy to guy getting constantly misused and abused by each. Trump is just the one who finally said "I love you" and let them move in but only for his own specific, malevolent purposes knowing their past as abused SOs would make them supremely malleable and willing to hang around if the right things are said.

At this point they're suffering from learned helplessness and just want everyone else to be as miserable, bitter and empty as they are.

#44 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 10:16 AM | Reply

I like how Liberals chirp that Iran is stronger than ever. The sadder part is that is what they want. Never mind that their military is gone as well as their economy. The miscalculation that this administration made was thinking right after the first invasion that the people of Iran would rise up and take over. It will happen but obviously will take longer than expected.

#5 | Posted by fishpaw at 2026-08-27 12:23 PM | Reply PPPPPFFFFTTTTT

Did you ever consider they don't need all that chit? Before our last foray into the neighboring regions... 24 years ago... Iraq and Afghanistan were already crushed by economic sanctions... three decades of war... trashed infrastructure consisting of mostly rubble... significantly smaller and malnourished population... no viable military... less than adequate armaments... and yet...

Sooooo...perhaps the only reason Trumpanzee hasn't said "mission accomplished" is he can't fit in a flight suit?

#45 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2026-08-28 10:54 AM | Reply

They're (MAGA) more like those women in small towns who bounce around from guy to guy getting constantly misused and abused by each. Trump is just the one who finally said "I love you" and let them move in but only for his own specific, malevolent purposes knowing their past as abused SOs would make them supremely malleable and willing to hang around if the right things are said.
At this point they're suffering from learned helplessness and just want everyone else to be as miserable, bitter and empty as they are.

#44 | Posted by jpw

Also Bingo.

#46 | Posted by Zed at 2026-08-28 11:45 AM | Reply

Sooooo...perhaps the only reason Trumpanzee hasn't said "mission accomplished" is he can't fit in a flight suit?
#45 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2026-08-28 10:54 AM | Reply | Flag:

They come in 3XL and bigger.

#47 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2026-08-28 12:03 PM | Reply

" Yeah, I just wonder how far off we are from when that cult starts doing things like suicide bombings."

Perhaps one thing people don't get is that if one decides to fight back, you use the weapons that are available to you. Suicide bombings aren't a thing when you have the world's largest military at your beck and call. MAGACult, Inc. currently has that.

Why do people believe "terrorism" only occurs when some maniac blows themselves up or rams a truck through a crowd or blows up a bunch of people in at a marathon?

America has been engaged in terrorism in one form or another since its inception, but moreso overseas for the past 70 years. And the military industrial complex and its lackeys in congress and the White House have been effectively terrorizing the Middle East since the inception of that colonial project for a bunch of white European ethnosupremacist fascists known as Israel.

#48 | Posted by pumpkinhead at 2026-08-28 12:06 PM | Reply

One thing this put a pin in, the importance of the Strait to begin with. It's going out with a whimper as the workarounds continue to come online. It will never go back to pre-war export levels.

#49 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2026-08-28 12:08 PM | Reply

"They come in 3XL and bigger."

Yeah, but he had to fit his ego in as well, so there's that...

#50 | Posted by Danforth at 2026-08-28 12:17 PM | Reply

It's going out with a whimper as the workarounds continue to come online.

I'm assuming they're building terminals outside of the Persian Gulf for tanker loading?

#51 | Posted by jpw at 2026-08-28 12:46 PM | Reply

I'm assuming they're building terminals outside of the Persian Gulf for tanker loading?

Product will move but the net result is higher shipping cost.

#52 | Posted by REDIAL at 2026-08-28 01:05 PM | Reply

Terminals, buried pipelines, hardened existing sites, etc. I see the articles about how Iran is the supreme power of the region. They don't seem to take into account the strategic adjustments by economies that dwarf Iran's. Oil facilities are being dressed in cope cages built like a nascar catch fence, compared to the rusty chainlink Russians weld to their tanks and can't afford for their own infrastructure.

#53 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2026-08-28 01:11 PM | Reply

Going forward, whatever middle eastern/west Asian country is China's best friend will win the day.

So far that seems like Iran.

#54 | Posted by pumpkinhead at 2026-08-28 01:31 PM | Reply

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